1. Adapting the city

2. Jeremy Carter Research Fellow, University of Manchester, School of Environment & Development Buildings and infrastructure workshop EcoCities research summary

3. Recent trends in GM weather and climate events Weather/ climate event Number of recorded events across GM (1945-2008) % of total recorded events across GM (1945-2008) Flood158 41.9 Storm85 22.5 Cold63 16.7 Fog28 7.4 Heat22 5.8 Drought8 2.1 Air Quality7 1.9 Smog6 1.7

4. Consequences of weather/climate events in GM Receptor typeTotal number of recorded consequences (1945-2008) % of total recorded consequences (1945-2008) Critical infrastructure15537.5% Health and wellbeing12831% Natural environment5613.6% Built environment5413.1% Social and emergency infrastructure 204.8%

5. Critical infrastructure and the built environment in GM Weather/ climate event Critical infrastructure (1945-2008) Built environment (1945-2008) Number of events % of total events Number of events % of total events Floods6139.51833.3 Storms2516.13055.6 Cold3925.235.7 Fog1610.300 Heat85.235.7 Drought63.900

6. Susceptibility of GM infrastructure to flood risk 7% of hazardous substance instillations in flood zone 3 6% of motorway junctions in flood zone 3 5% of fire stations in flood zone 3 2.4% educational establishments in flood zone 3

7. The EcoCities Spatial Portal Mapping flood zones 2 and 3, and educational establishments. Mapping the urban heat island and residential care homes.

8. Weather/climate event Projections for Greater Manchester Fluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall) Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall events. Pluvial floods (inc. more winter rainfall) Increasing: Increase in winter rainfall and extreme rainfall events. Storms (inc. high winds) Variable: Possible fall in summer storms. Possible rise in winter gales. More wind storms. Cold eventsDecreasing: Winter temps increasing. Winter night time minimum temps increasing. Heat waves (inc. higher temps) Increasing: Increasing summer temps. Higher summer night time and warmest summer day temps. Air quality (inc. smog)Decreasing: Fewer blocking anticyclones under some metrics Drought (inc. fall in summer rainfall) Increasing: Fall in summer rainfall. Increase in summer temp.

9. Weather/ climate event projections Implications for critical infrastructure Implications for the built environment Fluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall) Increasing - Damage to infrastructure - Service disruption - Silting/overtopping of reservoirs - Landslips on road/rail networks - Damage to bridges - Internal and external building damage - Risk of slope instability Pluvial floods (inc more winter rainfall) Increasing - Damage to infrastructures - Service disruption - Treatment of polluted runoff -Urban drainage capacity pressure - Internal and external building damage - Increased damp risk in buildings

10. Weather/ climate event projections Implications for critical infrastructure Implications for the built environment Heat waves (inc higher temperature) Increasing - Higher energy demand for cooling - Water supply constraints - Risk of rails buckling and roads deteriorating - Soil shrinkage and subsidence - Higher rates of deterioration of concrete - Internal overheating of some buildings Drought (inc less summer rainfall) Increasing - Less water for cooling power stations - Impact on water utility planning and processes - Soil shrinkage and subsidence -Less water for building maintenance

11. Human comfort in office buildings Productivity and health of workers are associated with thermal comfort in offices Level of control over temperature and ventilation in offices is crucial for employees’ comfort, health and productivity. Landlord regarded as responsible for physical building changes, tenants for adjusting behaviour. Behavioural adaptation measures affected by common reliance on air conditioning and the variability of tenant companies. This study used Arup Appraise data

12. Urban green/blue infrastructure Green roof Benefits of green infrastructure Reduced surface runoff Moderating air temperatures Improving air quality Protecting and enhancing biodiversity Providing recreation space Reducing carbon emissions Artificial wetland Flood detention basin

13. Business as usual 15% green space High development 4% green space Deep green 34% green space Oxford Road: green infrastructure scenarios High development = +5ºC Deep green = -6ºC Business as usual ~21% green space will maintain surface temperatures at baseline

14. Greater Manchester – future land use scenarios Long descent scenario 2050Upward Spiral scenario 2050

15. Summary Weather/climate risks to buildings and infrastructure are evolving Today’s developments will be operating in a different climate regime in the future New developments need to be resilient to future climate change Adaptation needs to mix physical and behavioural responses Green and blue infrastructure is a valuable adaptation response Climate change projections should ideally be considered alongside socio-economic projections.

16. Acknowledgements Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme. The research support and assistance of the EcoCities team in developing the content for this presentation is much appreciated. Particular thanks go to: Gina Cavan Angela Connelly John Handley Simon Guy Aleksandra Kazmierczak

17. Principal sources of data Carter, J. G. and Lawson, N. (2011). Looking back and projecting forwards: Greater Manchester’s weather and climate. EcoCities, The University of Manchester. Carter, J. G. (2012). Land use change scenarios for Greater Manchester: analysis and implications for climate change adaptation. EcoCities project, University of Manchester. Cavan, G. and Kazmierczak, A. (2011). Urban greening to adapt urban areas to climate change: Oxford Road Corridor case study. EcoCities, The University of Manchester. Kazmierczak, A., and Kenny, C. (2011). Risk of flooding to infrastructure in Greater Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester. Kazmierczak, A. and Connelly, A. (2012). Adaptation to weather and climate in office buildings in Manchester. EcoCities, The University of Manchester.

18. Adapting the city