1. (AIACC. AF90 NORTH AFRICA PROJECT) Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change on North Africa: Food Production and Water Needs AIACC Regional Workshop (23 – 27 March. Dakar. Senegal)

2. Tunisien contribution Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in Kairouan region. Raoudha Mougou, Amel Nafti and Riadh Chatteli

3. CLIMATE CHANGE Increasing rainfall variability Increasing temperature Increasing evaporation rate Increasing water deficit POPULATION INCREASE Agricultural, industrial, touristic activity Low rainfall Low rainfall Variable rainfall Variable rainfall High temperature High radiation High temperature High radiation High evaporation High evaporation Mediocre quality of water Mediocre quality of water More then 30% available water >3g/l salt WATER RESOURCES LIMITED VARIABLE MEDIODRE QUALITY Unbalance between offer and demand Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area) Tunisia climate (Aride and Semi aride (75 % of total area) Vulnerability.

4. Cereals 1.6 millions of hectares. 34% of cultivated areas 16% of total production. Fruit trees 2 millions of hectares 1.3 millions of hectares olives trees 40% of cultivated areas 60 % of exported food products Vulnerability. Distribution of agricultural land use in Tunisia Atlas des sols tunisiens. (Mtimet 1999.)

5. The importance of Rainfed agriculture (Data 1993) Rainfed/Total (1000ha) Rainfed areas (1000ha) Irrigated areas (1000ha) 97%164634ِCereals 93%1835130Trees 28%42108Vegetable 92%28523Fodder Vulnerability.

6. Wheat water deficit (Different bioclimatic regions) (Mougou et H é nia. 1996) Kairouan (Aride) Bizerte (Humide) Jendouba (Semi aride) Tunis (Semi aride) Climate impacts.

7. Cereals yields in the North and the Centre regions Q/ha Climate impacts.

8. Effect of irrigation on cereals production Climate impacts.

9. Average cereal yields in Kairouan region Rainfed cereals and Irrigated cereals Rainfed cereals Irrigated cereals Durum wheatBarleyDurum wheatBarley Average maximal yield q/ha 32.839.646.754.2 Average minimal yield q/ha 0024.237.9 Climate impacts.

10. Mean yield during rainy and dry years (1995 to 2003) in Kairouan region - The wheat yield during rainy years are too higher than dry years. - The yield increase during the rainy years ranges between: 178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields. 178 percent (Sbikha) and 80 percent (Ouslatia) of dry years yields. Rainy years (1995/1996 and 2002/2003 Dry years (1996/1997 to 2001/2002) Yield increase during rainy years in relation to dry years (%) Mean rainfall (mm) Mean yields (qt) Mean rainfall (mm) Mean yields (qt) Kairouan231.5515.5114.26.5138 Sbikha275.217.5112.66.3178 Haffouz269.151499.16133 Ouslatia317.715.5130.98.680 Climate impacts.

11. Stakeholders engagement By Survey analysis in Kairouan region The first beneficiaries are the smalls farmers. - Materiel conditions - Knowledge - Nombre (about 80%) Areas in hectares Rate of total number (%) Rate of total area (%) ≤ 5 ha 539 ≤ 10 ha 7321

12. - to define the rate of rainfed cereals in the farms; the farmers behaviour toward the climate variability effect on agricultural production; the current and future vulnerability of rainfed cereals; - to analyse the capability of the farmers to adapt to climate variability; - to list the adaptation methods already used in the farms; - to specify what prevent the farmers to adapt to current and future climate variability. Survey objectives Survey analysis

13. - How the survey analysis have been made ? - Who was involved ? We are here and here Survey analysis

14. Kairouan region - The most vulnerable region because of high climatic variability. - Water deficit and drought represent a permanent risk for rainfed agriculture. Drought may occurs: 1 year out of 3 or out of 4. - Severely dry years (deficit > 50%), drought persistence: more frequent in the south and the center than in the North. -Moderate temperatures, but very hot conditions frequent may occur from May to September -High temperatures (45°C in August) may affect cereal production when they occur in the growing season by increasing the evaporation rate. Vulnerability.

15. Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Environnement et des Ressources Hydrauliques INRGREF Questionnaire destiné aux agriculteurs Cadre de l'enquête : Projet sur « l'Evaluation de l'Impact et Adaptation au Changement Climatique » AIACC AF 90 : North Africa Project Gouvernorat de Kairouan Enquête N° :………………… Menée par : ………………………………… Date :………………………………………. Survey analysis

16. 1- Localisation de l’exploitation 2- Identification de l'agriculteur 3- Systèmes de production et modes de conduite 3.1- Répartition des cultures 3.2- Pratiquez- vous l’élevage ? 4- Occupation des parcelles 5- Techniques utilisées (Céréales en pluvial) 6- Variation des rendements (Céréales en pluvial) 7- Causes des variations des rendements 8- Causes des variations de la production 9- Climat et production 10- Etat des connaissances des agriculteurs sur le changement climatique 11- Mesures d'adaptation Survey analysis

17. Survey Sampling Methods Survey analysis 3500 farmers that produce cereals in the Kairouan region 1500 of them have changed their production system to market gardening ~ 2000 farmers represent cereal production A significant sample must contain at least 5% of total population. 100 farmers We limited the survey to 3% of total population. 58 farmers The sampling method: “Random Sampling”

18. Survey analysis Characteristics of the target farmers Farmers - Average age: 58 years Schooling: - Illiterate: 55.17 % - Primary education: 36.20 % - Secondary: 5.17 % -Higher: 3.45 % -Farms - Average farm size: 29.83 ha - Percentage of farms smaller than 10 ha: 34.5 % - Percentage of farms between 10 ha and 50 ha: 53.5 % - Percentage of farms larger than 50ha: 12 % Low schooling rate The farms size is relatively high compared to the average farms size.

19. Farmers attitude toward climat   The totality of farmers expressed their suffering from difficult climatic conditions and drought years (1997 to 2002).   Even during the rainy years rainfall distribution can be inadequate for the crops. Dry conditions in March decrease cereal production and result in a loss of income for the farmer. - 96.5 % of agricultural output is determined by climate. - 12 % knows the possibility of adaptation methods to climatic change. - 91.4 % of the farmers use their own methods of adaptation to current climate variability. - 48.4 % of them have the will to build a well, but they found administrative, financial and land constraints. Survey analysis

20.  Changes of sowing date if the autumn is drier than normal;  Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food;  Storage of fodder to ensure the livestock food;  Cactus cultivation for fodder in dry years;  Changes in cultural techniques ;  Changes in cultural techniques ;  Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as cactus, that is an added value of sheep production  Ovine breeding is considered as a valuable option and interesting adaptation strategy, (the potential resistance of sheep, their capacity for using a fodder resources, the possibility of using crops without alternative value, such as cactus, that is an added value of sheep production   The choice of crop varieties is not considered important and is not listed as an adaptation option by the majority of the farmers.  Supplementary Irrigation  Supplementary Irrigation Adaptation methodes used by the farmers Survey analysis

21. Supplementary  Supplementary irrigation is applied by 25.86 % of the farmers.  Irrigation is applied mainly to fodder crops for livestock.  The irrigated surface represent only 3.26 % of the total cultivated area because of: -the small amount of water available; -the financial constraints to purchase irrigation materials.  All farmers that use supplemental irrigation are conscious of the advantages of fertilization and its management (date, frequencies and quantities).  Rainfed cereals are the principal activity even for the farmers who have access to water. Irrigation Survey analysis

22. To conclude Previous analyses of drought management in Tunisia that variability in cereal production is explained by the variability of rainfall with a rate of: 78 % for the North; 50 % for the Center; 40 % for the South. This is confirmed by our study that shows that in Kairouan region rainfall variability explains 56 % of the cereal yield variability According to farmers: 96.5 % of agricultural output are determined by climate The farmers over-estimate the effect of climate variability.

23. In addition to climate variability, t he low yields could be explained by: -A very low level of farmers schooling:   Only 20.7 % of farmers adopt the extension services advice.   The farmers cannot adopt easily new techniques even if they agree with them.   A difficulty for the extension services to change the farmers behaviours. The extension services are efficient only in medium and large farms ( Dr. Chennoufi and Dr. Nefzaoui) : “technologies generated appear to be more readily adopted by large-scale farmers, agricultural development agencies, rural development societies and cooperative farms, rather than by the majority of medium-and small-scale farmers”. Why ? And How ? Survey analysis

24. The involvement of the rural population concerned to attain the objective remains essential. That is why nowadays the participative approach is necessary for the use of new technology. The approach objective is to develop technologies adapted to the ecological and socio economic conditions. We can attend these objectives by research development programs realized taking into account the farmer’s strategies. Nevertheless in Tunisia, the strategies of rural development are directed towards a participative approach and a technical aid mainly for small farmers who represent about 80% of farmers.