Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Northern Plains – Wheat, Barley and Minor Oilseeds 2014 Farm Bill Education Conference Kansas City, MO September 3, 2014 Dwight Aakre Farm Management.

Published byRoderick Stanley Cole Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Northern Plains – Wheat, Barley and Minor Oilseeds 2014 Farm Bill Education Conference Kansas City, MO September 3, 2014 Dwight Aakre Farm Management."— Presentation transcript:

1

2 Northern Plains – Wheat, Barley and Minor Oilseeds 2014 Farm Bill Education Conference Kansas City, MO September 3, 2014 Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialist

3 The Northern Plains – Then and Now Historically –Wheat was the dominant crop, therefore high wheat base –Produced a major share of the U.S. barley crop –Very little precipitation from mid July through August Currently –Average annual precipitation has increased 20% in the last 20 years –Much of this increase coming in July and August –Increased disease pressure and difficult harvest conditions for small grain –Improved environment for corn and soybeans

4 State Average Counter-Cyclical Payment Yields, North Dakota Wheat29.7bu Barley43.6bu Soybeans30.4bu Corn81.0bu Sunflowers1151lbs Canola1097lbs Oats44.6bu Flaxseed13.2bu

5 State Averages, North Dakota Crop Current C-C Yield 90% of 2008-12 AverageChange Wheat 29.735.8+21% Barley 43.649.9+14% Sunflowers 11511348+17% Canola 1097.51426+30% Flax 13.217.5+33% Soybeans 30.427.9-8% Corn 81107.6+33%

6 Payment Yield Update Farm’s current CC wheat yield: 32bu Will this impact reallocation of base? Will this impact ARC vs PLC decision? 20082009201020112012 Average Yield PLC Yield (90%) Zero 90buZero 90bu81bu Plant

7 Existing Crop Base as a Percent of Total Base Acres, North Dakota Wheat64% Barley12% Soybeans7% Corn6% Sunflowers5% Canola3% Oats2% Flaxseed1%

8 2009-2012 Average Planted and Prevented Planted as a Percent of Total Covered Commodities Wheat44% Barley4% Soybeans22% Corn14% Sunflowers5% Canola6% Oats1% Flaxseed2%

9 Base Reallocation Strategies 1.Safety Net 2.Maximum Payments

10

11

12 Marketing Year Average Prices All WheatAll Barley All SunflowerCanolaFlaxCornSoybean 20136.876.0621.7020.6013.704.4513.00 20127.776.4325.4026.5013.607.2014.30 20117.245.3529.1024.0013.906.2212.50 20105.703.8623.3019.3012.205.1811.30 20094.874.6615.1016.208.153.559.59 20086.785.3721.8018.7012.704.069.97 20076.484.0221.7018.3013.004.2010.10 20064.262.8514.5011.905.803.046.43 20053.422.5312.109.625.942.005.66 20043.402.4813.7010.708.072.065.74

13 Marketing Year Average Barley Price All BarleyFeed BarleyMalting Barley 2012$6.43$5.62$6.58 2011$5.35$4.91$5.44 2010$3.86$3.22$4.05 2009$4.66$2.61$5.02 2008$5.37$3.82$5.71 2007$4.02$4.35$3.87

14 Wheat – Walsh County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 6.30 2014-0- 6.307.006.202015-0- 6.307.506.002016-0- 1.54-0- 6.308.155.752017-0- 2.36-0- 6.308.505.302018-0- 7.31 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

15 Barley – Bottineau County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 4.75 2014-0-9.52-0-9.52-0-9.52 4.75 3.952015-0-9.52-0-9.5229.6347.60 4.755.303.752016-0-9.52-0- 29.3557.12 4.755.503.552017-0-9.52-0- 28.8366.64 4.755.603.052018-0-9.52-0- 26.9390.44 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

16 Canola – Cavalier County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 18.60 20142.9921.842.9921.842.9921.84 18.6020.0018.0020151.1021.84-0-2.1110.4030.30 18.6021.5017.002016-0-21.84-0- 18.9344.39 18.6022.5016.002017-0-21.84-0- 22.6258.49 18.6023.5013.752018-0-21.84-0- 31.2690.20 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

17 Sunflower – Emmons County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 20.90 201431.85-0-31.85-0-31.85-0- 20.9022.0020.00201526.96-0-15.22-0-29.081.91 20.9023.5019.0020167.38-0- 26.8014.65 20.9024.0018.002017-0- 27.39 20.9025.0015.252018-0- 21.7862.43 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

18 Flax – Ward County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 11.269.9011.2620146.940.316.940.316.940.31 11.2610.4011.002015-0-0.31-0- 3.844.28 11.2611.2510.252016-0-0.31-0- 9.8515.76 11.2611.759.702017-0-0.31-0- 12.4524.17 11.2612.258.252018-0-0.31-0- 20.1346.36 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

19 Corn – Barnes County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 3.90 201451.52-0-51.52-0-51.52-0- 3.904.703.80201552.91-0- 52.91-0- 3.904.803.60201619.16-0- 47.719.86 3.904.953.402017-0- 8.3229.58 3.905.502.902018-0- 36.9178.88 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

20 Soybeans – Stutsman County Estimated Payment per Acre Prices StableRising*Declining* StableRising*Declining*ARCPLCARCPLCARCPLC 10.35 20140.67-0-0.67-0-0.67-0- 10.3511.0010.00201510.54-0- 19.46-0- 10.3511.909.402016-0- 17.12-0- 10.3512.508.902017-0- 16.91-0- 10.3513.007.602018-0- 23.7520.40 *Price estimates provided by Frayne Olson, NDSU crops economist.

21 Estimated Increase in Payment Per Acre from Re-Allocation of Base Acres with Alternative Price Projections, 2014-2018 Price Trend Farm/CropStableIncreasingDecreasing Wheat$16$5$28 Barley$7$10$15 Canola$20$3$9 Sunflower$6$4$14 Flax$3$1($1) Corn$19$6$25 Soybean$16$5$21

22 Conclusions Base re-allocation will have the greatest impact on potential payments Base re-allocation and yield update are the landowners decision Yield update will be significant for most crops Wheat and barley base acres will decline The change from “feed” barley to “all” barley significantly reduces potential payments for barley

Download ppt "Northern Plains – Wheat, Barley and Minor Oilseeds 2014 Farm Bill Education Conference Kansas City, MO September 3, 2014 Dwight Aakre Farm Management."

Similar presentations

FSA’s ACRE* Program and the Calculation of Yield, Price, and Revenue Guarantees * Average Crop Revenue Election.

FSA’s ACRE* Program and the Calculation of Yield, Price, and Revenue Guarantees * Average Crop Revenue Election.
Peanut Provisions in the Farm Bill Nathan Smith, PhD Extension Economist Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Georgia.

Peanut Provisions in the Farm Bill Nathan Smith, PhD Extension Economist Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Georgia.
2014 FARM BILL: COMMODITY PROGRAMS Jody Campiche Assistant Professor & Extension Economist Oklahoma State University.

2014 FARM BILL: COMMODITY PROGRAMS Jody Campiche Assistant Professor & Extension Economist Oklahoma State University.
Overview of Commodity Program Changes Jody Campiche Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Oklahoma State University November 10, 2014.

Overview of Commodity Program Changes Jody Campiche Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Oklahoma State University November 10, 2014.
Agricultural Act of 2014 PLC (Price Loss Coverage) And ARC (Agriculture Risk Coverage) FSA 2014 Farm Bill TrainingMontana Producer Meetings1.

Agricultural Act of 2014 PLC (Price Loss Coverage) And ARC (Agriculture Risk Coverage) FSA 2014 Farm Bill TrainingMontana Producer Meetings1.
2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit The Profitability of Illinois Agriculture: Back to the Future? 2014 Farm Bill—Farm Program Decisions Gary Schnitkey,

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit The Profitability of Illinois Agriculture: Back to the Future? 2014 Farm Bill—Farm Program Decisions Gary Schnitkey,
ACRE UPDATE Estimates as of February 9, 2010 Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialists.

ACRE UPDATE Estimates as of February 9, 2010 Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialists.
BASE REVENUE PROTECTION AND REVENUE COUNTERCYCLICAL PROGRAMS Dwight Aakre, Ron Haugen, Andrew Swenson North Dakota State University Extension Service Fargo,

BASE REVENUE PROTECTION AND REVENUE COUNTERCYCLICAL PROGRAMS Dwight Aakre, Ron Haugen, Andrew Swenson North Dakota State University Extension Service Fargo,
Choosing Crop Insurance for 2012 William Edwards, ISU Extension Economist.

Choosing Crop Insurance for 2012 William Edwards, ISU Extension Economist.
Corn Outlook.

Corn Outlook.
Farm Bill ARC and PLC Payout Projections 2014-2018 Greg Halich 311 CE Barnhart Dept. Agricultural Economics University.

Farm Bill ARC and PLC Payout Projections Greg Halich 311 CE Barnhart Dept. Agricultural Economics University.
The 2012, 2013, 2014 Farm Bill (The Agricultural Act of 2014) Will Snell – University of KY ------

The 2012, 2013, 2014 Farm Bill (The Agricultural Act of 2014) Will Snell – University of KY
Crops and Crop Production in North Dakota Joel Ransom.

Crops and Crop Production in North Dakota Joel Ransom.
2014 FARM BILL: COLLABORATION AND EDUCATION STRATEGIES Jody Campiche Oklahoma State University.

2014 FARM BILL: COLLABORATION AND EDUCATION STRATEGIES Jody Campiche Oklahoma State University.
Ag Policy, Lecture 9 Knutson, 6 th Edition Chapter 7 Price Supports.

Ag Policy, Lecture 9 Knutson, 6 th Edition Chapter 7 Price Supports.
Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 Title I, Subtitles A and B Commodity Programs for Covered Commodities 2002 Farm Bill Education Conference.

Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 Title I, Subtitles A and B Commodity Programs for Covered Commodities 2002 Farm Bill Education Conference.
2012 or 2013 FarmBill For 2014 and Beyond. Signed Feb 7, 2014 2 years late 956 Billion over 10 years Farm Bill is a mis-nomer.

2012 or 2013 FarmBill For 2014 and Beyond. Signed Feb 7, years late 956 Billion over 10 years Farm Bill is a mis-nomer.
What Is a Farm Bill? Joe’s Long Definition – Shorter Definition – Tells USDA what to do, how to do it, who to do it for, and for how long Ex. Provide food.

What Is a Farm Bill? Joe’s Long Definition – Shorter Definition – Tells USDA what to do, how to do it, who to do it for, and for how long Ex. Provide food.
Managing 2009 Crop Margins November 2008 Fundamentals: Supply & Demand Commodity Funds & Chart Technicals Outside Commodity Markets Steven D. Johnson Farm.

Managing 2009 Crop Margins November 2008 Fundamentals: Supply & Demand Commodity Funds & Chart Technicals Outside Commodity Markets Steven D. Johnson Farm.
Econ 339X, Spring 2011 ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor 515-294-9911 John Lawrence Professor

Econ 339X, Spring 2011 ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor John Lawrence Professor

Similar presentations

Ads by Google