1. Estimation of virtual water use for achieving the target of food self-sufficiency ratio in South Korea Department of Rural Systems Engineering College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Seoul National University iamchoi@snu.ac.kr http://rwiel.snu.ac.kr Jin-Yong Choi, Seung-Hwan Yoo, Sang-Hyun Lee, Jeong-Bin Im

2. 1. Virtual water & Water footprint concept 2. Introduction 3. Methods (VWC and VWU) 4. VWU for per capita net food supply 5. VWU for consumption and production in 2015 and 2020 6. Summary and Conclusions Contents

3. Virtual water concept n ‘Virtual water’ (Allan, 1993)  The amount of water used to produce a certain product, expressed in cubic metes (m 3 )  ‘embedded water’  Allan suggested that the industrial and agricultural commodity trade was also a trade in the water used for production of those commodities. (Hoekstra et al., 2011)

4. [Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008] (Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2004; 2008)

5. Water footprint concept n Water Footprint  an indicator of freshwater use that looks at both direct and indirect water use of a consumer or producer  the total volume of freshwater used to produce the goods and services consumed by the individual or community  Water volume + Additional information (where, what, when) (Hoekstra et al., 2011)

6. Introduction (1) n Population growth and life-style change  Affecting the demand and supply of food, and land and water use n Increase in population, rapid industrialization and urbanization during the last half century in Korea  higher foods demand & decreased arable lands n Food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) in South Korea n SSR for grain (including feed): 56% (1980) to 27% (2010) n wheat, maize and beans: 0.5%, 1.0% and 9.8% in 2010 (KREI, 2011)

7. Introduction (2) n The food security situation in Korea faces challenges internally and externally. ex) decreased arable lands, climate change, drought n It is necessary for the Korean government to make agricultural policies more effective for stabilizing the food supply. n The MIFAFF* recognizes the necessity of enhancing its food SSR  Mid-long term targets for the grain SSR: 26.7% (2010)  30% (2015)  32% (2020) * MIFAFF: Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (KREI, 2011)

8. Introduction (3) n To achieve this goal, additional agricultural water must be secured; however, discussions on the detailed quantity and security of the water are yet to be made. n The virtual water concept, in which the amount of water is estimated using the amount of crop production, is more suitable for estimating the potential agricultural water required to meet the target food SSR.

9. Introduction (4) n Objectives of this study, Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.

10. Methods – VWC and VWU VWC = the water required for the production of one ton CWR = the quantity of water requirement production = the quantity harvested per year VWC feed [a] = virtual water content of feed VWC drink [a] = drinking water consumption VWC serv [a] = service water consumption P = the amount of consumption or production (Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)

11. Virtual water content (VWC) ItemsVWC 1) (m 3 /ton)ItemsVWC (m 3 /ton) Cereals Meats Wheat1071.6Bovine meat14,249.8 Rice1153.8Pig meat5,571.6 Barley1210.3Poultry meat4,015.6 Starch roots Edible viscera10,606.4 Potato134.8 Eggs & Milk Sweet potato364.8Eggs3,805.7 Pulse Milk1,011.4 Soy beans3,299.3 Feed Vegetables and Fruits Bulky feed58.5 Vegetables143Formular feed1,062.2 Fruits465.2 (Yoo et al., 2009; Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004)

12. Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA Meats Pulse Formula feed Grains (KREI, 2011)

13. Consumption scenarios in 2015 and 2020

14. Production scenarios in 2015 and 2020

15. Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020 Food items (Mm 3 ) Average in 2005-200920152020 Consum. 1) Prod. 2) Consum.Prod.Diff. 3) Consum.Prod.Diff. Rice 5,708.85,468.95,038.54,938.1-530.74,772.04,676.2-792.6 Wheat 2,261.510.72,100.3209.0198.22,025.3304.3293.6 Barley 395.3199.7357.0111.3-88.4357.0111.3-88.4 Pulses 1,462.2497.51,544.1560.963.31,643.0664.1166.6 Starch roots 210.1206.5178.0175.6-30.9178.0175.6-30.9 Vegetables 1,543.11,421.51,602.01,377.4-44.11,602.01,330.2-91.3 Fruits 1,253.61,105.61,686.41,349.2243.51,799.01,405.0299.3 Bovine meat 5,272.12,431.97,367.13,306.0874.17,737.63,676.41,244.6 Pig meat 4,999.63,917.95,304.24,245.6327.65,437.94,351.4433.5 Poultry 1,696.51,458.12,549.92,039.9581.92,814.92,252.8794.7 Edible viscera 4,789.04,788.64,789.04,788.6-4,789.04,788.6- Milk 3,251.72,326.03,337.32,174.4-151.63,370.52,161.6-164.4 Eggs 2,077.92,068.22,374.82,351.9283.72,496.52,469.9401.7 Bulky feed 271.7222.2396.5345.6123.3464.0415.3193.1 Formula feed 17,063.64,190.019,482.94,707.7517.719,156.84,707.7517.7 Total 52,256.730,313.358,108.032,681.22,367.658,643.533,490.43,177.2 1) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production 3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020)

16. Additional net VWU for production in 2015 and 2020 n Annual demand for agricultural water (AWD) n 15,690 Mm 3 in 2016 and 15,583 Mm 3 in 2020 (MCT, 2006) n Additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm 3  6.8% of AWD (2015) 892 Mm 3  5.7% of AWD (2020) excluding imported feed

17. VW import in 2015 and 2020 n VW import n 2005-2009 (avg.): 21,943 Mm 3 n 2015: 25,426 Mm 3 (+3,483 Mm 3 ), 2020: 25,152 Mm 3 (+3,209 Mm 3 )

18. Summary and Conclusions n In this research, n The VWUs required to secure the target food SSRs for 2015 and 2020 were calculated  additional net VWUs: 1,062 Mm 3 (2015), 892 Mm 3 (2020) n To serve as the basis for establishing long-term policies on the agricultural water resources. n To provide information and data which are required for the agricultural water resources management. n To use the basic data for national agricultural water footprint

20. Introduction (4) n Objectives of this study, n Analyzing the trends in per capita virtual water use in accordance with the change of the food consumption pattern in the past years n Estimating the potential virtual water use (VWU) using consumption and production scenarios for the target food SSRs in 2015 and 2020 in Korea.

21. Self-sufficiency ratio in KOREA Meats Pulse Formula feed Grains (KREI, 2011)

22. Changes of VWU in 2015 and 2020 Food items (Mm 3 ) Average in 2005-200920152020 Consum. 1) Prod. 2) Consum.Prod.Diff. 3) Consum.Prod.Diff. Rice5,708.85,468.95,038.54,938.1-530.74,772.04,676.2-792.6 Wheat2,261.510.72,100.3209.0198.22,025.3304.3293.6 Barley395.3199.7357.0111.3-88.4357.0111.3-88.4 Pulses1,719.9550.21,544.1560.910.71,643.0664.1114.0 Starch roots210.1206.5178.0175.6-30.9178.0175.6-30.9 Vegetables1,543.11,421.51,602.01,377.4-44.11,602.01,330.2-91.3 Fruits1,465.81,249.21,686.41,349.2100.01,799.01,405.0155.8 Bovine meat5,272.22,431.97,367.33,306.0874.17,737.83,676.51,244.6 Pig meat4,999.63,917.95,304.24,245.6327.65,437.94,351.4433.5 Poultry1,696.51,458.12,549.92,039.9581.92,814.92,252.8794.7 Milk3,251.72,326.03,337.32,174.4-151.63,370.52,161.6-164.4 Eggs2,077.92,068.22,374.82,351.9283.72,496.52,469.9401.7 Bulky feed648.0530.0945.4824.0294.11,106.4990.3460.4 Formula feed18,923.94,646.721,606.95,220.9574.221,245.25,220.9574.2 Total50,174.326,485.655,992.028,884.32,398.756,585.629,790.23,304.7 Total except feed30,602.421,308.933,439.722,839.4 1,530.5 34,234.023,579.0 2,270.2 Ratio 4) 69.6 % 68.3 % 68.9 % 1) Consum.: virtual water use for consumption 2) Prod.: virtual water use for production 3) Diff.: difference between the average VWU for production in 2005-2009 and 2015 (or 2020) 4) Ratio: VWU for production / VWU for consumption

23. Per capita net food supply (NFS cap ) in KOREA Food Per capita net food supply (kg/yr) 198519901995200020052009 Cereals185.4175.4173.1166.8150.5139.3 Starch roots11.911.0 11.817.013.7 Pulse10.710.311.110.711.49.8 Tree nuts0.80.51.71.51.31.5 Oil crops0.50.71.30.7 0.8 Vegetables98.6132.6160.6165.9145.5152.5 Fruits26.629.039.140.744.747.7 Meats16.323.632.737.536.643.3 Eggs6.37.98.6 9.110.0 Milks19.231.838.549.354.053.3 Sugars11.715.317.817.921.223.8 Oil and Fats9.214.314.215.918.713.3 (KREI, 2011)

24. VWU for NFS cap 546.6 m 3 861.1 m 3 797.0 m 3