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Covering Analyst: Cecilia Xia ceciliaxia89@gmail.com
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Company Overview
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›Oldest Healthcare Company ›Found by John McKesson and Charles Olcott in 1883 ›180 years ›Delivers Pharmaceuticals, Medical supplies and healthcare IT ›Headquartered in San Francisco
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Company Overview Cont. ›Nation’s largest health-care provider ›Recognized by Fortune magazine as the #1 healthcare distributor for innovation, people management and financial soundness. ›Is ranked at 14 th on the Fortune 500
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Business Segments
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›Distribution Solutions ›Technology Solutions Revenue Segment2012 Revenue (In Million) 2013 First Three Quarters Revenue (In Million) Distribution Solutions119,424 (97.30%) 89,347 (97.29%) Technology Solutions3,310 (2.70%) 2,488 (2.71%)
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Distribution Solutions FY12 Milestones ›U.S. Pharmaceutical –Grew Rev. 7%; Expanded Health Mart from 2,787 to 2,941 stores; Grew OneStop Generics 8% ›Specialty Health –Completed integration of US Oncology ›Canada –Grew Rev. 5%; achieved profit growth in a difficult regulatory environment ›Medical-Surgical –Grew Rev. 8%; Pharmaceutical sales to physician offices grew 12% ›Pharmacy Systems & Automation –Grew Rev. 22%; increased customer 23%
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Market Share : Leading Market Position SegmentsMarket share U.S. Pharmaceutical#1 Specialty Health#2 Medical-Surgical#1 McKesson Canada#1
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Technology Solutions ›2.7% of total revenue, 15% of the operating profit ›45.62%, 43.97% Profit Margin in 2012, 2011
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Industry Analysis
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›Government Spending: –1.2 trillion in 2013 (19.05% of GDP) –1.1 trillion in 2012 (17.74% of GDP) ›Affordable Care Act: –950 billion cost over 10 years –15 % (32 million) currently uninsured ›Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act: –Required install Healthcare Information Technology ›Brand-to-Generic –Better Profit Margin, Lag on Topline ›Generic New Approvals –More products available, Industry moving fast
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Create Shareholder Value
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Increasing Dividend ›FY07: $0.24 ›FY12: $0.80 (233% increase)
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Acquisitions FY07-FY12: 17 Acquisitions Distribution Solutions (4.1 Billion) 17 Acquisitions Technology Solutions (2.2 Billion)
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Share Repurchase ›Since FY 07: Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding ›Additional $500 million repurchase on top of $360 million this quarter
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Comparable Analysis
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›AmerisourceBergen Corporation – 50% ›Cardinal Health – 15% ›Owens & Minor – 15% ›Henry Schein – 10% ›Omnicare – 10%
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Metrics
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DCF Analysis
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Revenue Model ›Steady Revenue Growth – DS ›5% CAGR ›Estimate 1.05%- 2.1% for year 2013 to 2018
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Revenue Model ›Steady Revenue Growth – TS ›2% CAGR ›Estimate 1.86%-3.3% for year 2013-2018
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Working Capital Model & DCF Model ›Percent of Revenue ›COGS: different than I/S ›SG&A: Grouped together in Qs
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Final Valuation
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Questions
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Recommendation ›Based on my comparable model and DCF analysis, MCK is trading at a discount. The industry trend will provide the company more growing opportunity. ›I recommend a buy for Tall Firs and Svigals
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Appendix – Brand-to-Generics
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U.S. Oncology Aquisition ›November 2010 mck spent $2.16 billion to buy us oncology ›a physician practice management company for cancer doctors and with a more than 17% of all cancer patients. ›It sells lots of medical equipment and drugs to doctors’ offices. It is like a big customer plugged in as a subsidiary. ›Amerisourcebergen and cardinal health the two biggest providers of cancer drugs will no longer have the opportunity to sell to U.S. Oncology practices. ›
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Reimbursement ›Reimbursement: The president and congressional republicans are still looking for common ground on fiscal cliff measures, including a postponement of scheduled Medicare payment cuts, which would result in a 27 percent reduction in reimbursement to all Medicare providers
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Appendix – Profiles of MCK Distribution Solution
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TS- Relayhealth ›28,000+ healthcare transactions/minute ›2000+ hospitals & health systems ›80+ health information exchanges ›200,000+ Physicians ›1900 Payers ›21Million + Patient records ›50,000 + Retail Pharmacies
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Appendix – Management Team (DS)
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Appendix – Management Team (TS)
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