1. Trends in the Global Fresh Produce Industry: Focus on Citrus DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis November 2005

2. World Area and Production of Fruits and Vegetables, Million Metric Tons and Hectares Source: FAO Source: FAO

3. Food Demand Trends Global per capita availability of fruits and vegetables grew from 155 kg in 1990 to 212 in 2004. Consumers in Latin American and Asia are registering the fastest growth in food demand in the world – in the face of slow growth mature food markets in the developed world. Growing global importance of supermarket chains plays a key role in stimulating fresh produce trade – shelf space needs to be full year-round. This is a positive factor for citrus demand.

4. Convergence…Supermarket Share of Grocery Sales, by Selected Country % USA France Brazil & KoreaChina Source: Tom Reardon

5. The 2004 World Fruit Pie, Share of Production Source: World Apple Review 2005

6. 79-8189-9199-0102-04 02-04 v. 89-91- % Total Citrus 59,32177,073103,620106,274 +38% Oranges 38,75153,57863,43361,808 +15% Other Citrus 20,57023,49540,18744,466 +89% Total Fruit 275,663311,642440,242458,736 +47% World Production of Citrus and Total Fruit, 1,000 Metric Tons

7. This compares with 40% growth in population. Citrus production growth has lagged population as demand has diversified for other fruit. On the other hand, developing countries are increasing consumption of fresh produce, including citrus, as incomes improve. Developing countries also have higher rates of population growth. Trade liberalization through the WTO is opening markets and reducing tariffs.

8. Citrus markets and trade will continue to diversify: –between 1990 and 2003 imports of oranges, tangerines and clementines into all countries grew by an average of 23%, v. 20% into developed countries and 39% into developing countries. –between 1990 and 2003 imports of grapefruit and pomelos into all countries grew by 9%, v. 6% into developed countries and 63% into developing countries. The US and the EU dominate global horticultural trade. Source: World Apple Review 2005

9. U.S. Horticultural Imports and Exports by Key Product Category, $Billion Source: FAS/USDA, as compiled by Roberta Cook.

10. EU Exports of Horticultural Products by Category Billion Source: Global Trade Atlas, includes: Vegetables, Fruits, Nuts, Essential Oils, Nursery Products, Cut Flowers, Wine, and Beer.

11. Total Consumption of Fresh Oranges in Selected Countries, in 1000 Metric Tons (excludes processing) Source: FAS PSD Oct. 2005

12. Japan: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit in kg Source: World Apple Review 2005

13. United Kingdom: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Fruit, in kg Source: World Apple Review 2005

14. United Kingdom: Per Capita Weekly Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables, by Age Group, 2002-03, grams Source: World Apple Review 2005

15. USA: Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Citrus in kilos, 1976-2004 Source: ERS/USDA

16. Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Selected Countries, in kilos Sources: FAS/USDA PSD, Oct. 2005 and IDB demographic data, as compiled by Roberta Cook.

17. USA: Per Capita Consumption of Oranges, Fresh and Juice, kilos, 1976-2004 Source: ERS/USDA

18. Obesity Goes Global: Globesity! WHO estimates that obesity grew from 200 million people in 1995 to over 300 million in 2000. 115 million of the obese live in developing countries. Even in France, obese people are now 11% (vs. 8% in 2000) of the population and expected to reach 20% in 2020. The number of obese people in Britain almost tripled between 1980 and 2001; overweight or obese pre-school children doubled in the 90s.

19. Concern over Globesity Affects Public Policy Fresh produce is set to benefit. Competition from non-healthy snack foods is finally being challenged by health messages and changes in availability, such as in schools. Growing evidence on the health benefits of fresh citrus must be aggressively communicated and promoted, to all age groups. Citrus can be made more convenient to consume, witness the launching of Sunkist’s Fun Fruit program.

20. Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Rank 30 grocery retailers account for 29% of modern global grocery retail sales. TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004 Wal-Mart U.S. 285.2 138.721 Carrefour/Promodès France 90.3 84.542 Ahold Holland 88.8 75.03 3 Germany/Switz 70.1 38.358 Tesco U.K. 62.2 50.454 U.S. 56.4 41.226 Germany50.7 41.545 Costco U.S. 47.1 30.7413

21. Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005 TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004 Target U.S. 46.9 17.1526 Aldi Germany43.0 38.7512 Schwarz Germany42.6 37.7911 ITM France 42.3 32.4718 U.S.40.0 28.7817 AEON UK38.8 30.1314 Walgreen’s U.S.37.5 14.5331 Auchan France37.3 30.2215 Net SalesGrocery Net Grocery Company and Origin($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Rank

22. Safeway U.S. 35.8 29.5416 Ito-Yokado Japan 39.5 37.529 France 32.8 22.7219 Edeka Germany 32.5 33.117 CVS U.S. 30.6 10.1638 Tengelmann Germany 29.8 21.7320 Casino France 28.837.5310 Sainsbury U.K. 28.2 23.0221 TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004 Net Sales Grocery Net Grocery Company and Origin($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Rank Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005

23. Coles Myer Australia 23.714.3730 Morrisons25.520.0624 Delhaize “Le Lion” Belgium 22.3 18.5823 Woolworths Australia 20.7 16.4622 Loblaw Canada 20.117.4125 El Corte Ingles19.2 5.4462 Total Estimated Top 30 1,054.42 Others 2,610.33 Total Worldwide 3,664.75 Net SalesGrocery Net Grocery Company and Origin($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Rank Source: PlanetRetail, June 2005 TOP GLOBAL GROCERY RETAILERS, 2004

24. Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook. TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004 Wal-Mart 13.2 5.9 Soriana 3.9 2.4 Gigante 2.9 2.0 Comercial Mexicana 2.6 1.8 OXXO 2.1 1.5 Costco1.4.81 Chedraui1.2.66 HEB.64.58

25. Retail Banner Sales Grocery Company ($ billion) Sales ( $ billion) Source: PlanetRetail as compiled by Roberta Cook TOP GROCERY RETAILERS IN MEXICO, 2004 Carrefour.72.50 Calimax.31.27 Subtotal Top 1028.7616.35 Other 54.41 49.71 Total83.164 49.713 Top 10 grocery retailers account for 25% of modern grocery retail sales in Mexico. Much of food sales move through traditional channels.

26. Key Drivers global retail players global retail brands? growing role of private labels retailer – supplier contracts/partnerships, interest in large year-round suppliers declining role of spot market Suppliers all coming up to the same level