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Key Owner Meeting: HP Hotels Hampton/Hilton Garden Inn August 17, 2010
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Conversation Outline -Industry Supply and Demand: Trends and Insights -ADR Trends: How resilient are the chain-scales? -ADR by Segment: Transient versus Group -RevPAR at Levels not seen since… -The “Upscale” Chain-Scale -HP Hotels: “Competition” by brand, parent-company, and chain-scale -Top 50 Markets: Reasons for Optimism, and ACTION! -Forecast Comparison: May, June, July -BONUS SLIDE: New STR product (time permitting)
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Industry Commentary – Supply & Demand SUPPLY: Hotels opened through June of 2009… 1,134. Through June 2010…780. Projected through June 2011… 102. Nearly all of it in 2 chain-scales… Demand in June grew by 9.2%, the seventh consecutive month of growth and the second largest month-over-month demand increase in the Smith Travel era (since 1987). 7.9 million more rooms were sold in June 2010 than in June 2009.
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Industry Commentary – OCCUPANCY THE LAST 20 YEARS: The long-run industry average for occupancy is 62.1%. HOW ABOUT NOW: As of the June 2010, T12 industry occupancy was 55.8%. For the Trailing 12 month period ending June 2010, how many more ROOM NIGHTS would have to be sold for the industry to have achieved the long-run average of 62.1%? 110 MILLION Every hotel in the United States, all 52,000+ of them, would have to sell- out… FOR 23 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
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Industry/Chain-Scale Highlights – ADR June 2010 broke a string of 20 consecutive months of declining ADR. Based upon Trailing-Twelve month results ending June 2010, ADR in the U.S. lodging industry is at OCTOBER 2006 levels. CHAIN-SCALET12 ADR ($)SAME ADR AS: Luxury240.94August 2005 Upper-Upscale139.42November 2005 Upscale105.26April 2006 Mid-scale WITH82.29February 2007 Mid-scale WITHOUT84.29June 2007 Economy49.39November 2005
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Industry/Chain-Scale Highlights: RevPAR Based upon Trailing-Twelve month results ending June 2010, RevPAR in the U.S. lodging industry is at February 2002 levels. CHAIN-SCALET12 RevPAR ($) SAME ADR AS: Luxury155.35November 2004 Upper-Upscale92.15February 2002 Upscale66.55February 2005 Mid-scale WITH40.55April 2004 Mid-scale WITHOUT47.49August 2005 Economy24.52August 1995
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Upscale Chain-Scale Commentary, June 2010 Upscale RevPAR: +7.3% DEMAND grew by 14.7%, and has been positive for 12 straight months. With nearly 250 more hotels online in June 2010 compared to the year prior, many travelers are taking a trial run of the new product. The segment has NEVER sold more rooms than it did in June of 2010. INSIGHTS: The average age of the rooms in the upscale chain-scale is half that of the mid-scale WITH and economy chain-scales. New wins, and we expect that the new rooms added during the last 18-24 months will shift demand from these older segments.
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HP “Competition” by Brand…
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By Parent Company…
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By Chain-Scale…
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RevPAR Inflection Date by Market
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Hilton Worldwide: Top 50 U.S. Markets Only 1 market grew occupancy in 2009. Every market experience a decline in ADR.
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Commentary Top 50 Markets – Hilton Worldwide, June 2010 Occupancy: The compset grew occupancy in 47 markets. 11 of these markets realized an increase of AT LEAST 10%. Atlanta was up 9.7%; Charlotte up 6.8%. The big winner was Minneapolis/St. Paul, up 20.5%. ADR: DOWN 1.5% for the aggregated group of Top 50 Markets. The index of 110.8 is flat to 2009. Declines of more than 5.0% have continued in Ft. Lauderdale and Detroit.
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2010 Industry Forecasts
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BONUS SLIDE: STR Analytics
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