1. The diurnal cycle and MCSs: Is the Eastern Piedmont like the High Plains? Matthew D. Parker, NC State University (with David A. Ahijevych, NCAR) CSTAR planning meeting NWS-RAH, 3 August 2006

2. Study uses NOWRAD dBZ composites: dt=15 min; dx=dy=2 km 1996-2000, 2002-2005 365 days per year (not just warm season) 66-92°W; 32-42°N

3. Surface elevation (m)

4. The “Rockies-High Plains, diurnal-nocturnal, convection-MCS cycle” is well-established… What about the eastern U.S.? WV/VA/NC: Appalachian spine rises roughly 1 km above Atlantic coastal plain

5. Surface elevation (m)

7. The “Rockies-High Plains, diurnal-nocturnal, convection-MCS cycle” is well-established… What about the eastern U.S.? WV/VA/NC: Appalachian spine rises roughly 1 km above Atlantic coastal plain Convective echoes diurnally maximized over Appalachian chain; observed to propagate downslope toward the east In the summer months, boundary layer moisture is readily available over the coastal Plain As the sun sets, eastward-moving convection arrives at the comparatively warm coastal waters of the Atlantic, with the Gulf Stream only slightly farther offshore

8. Principal concern: The main afternoon maximum in the diurnal cycle overwhelms any other signals in the data!

10. Storm frequency (a value of 0.02 means “dbz ≥ 40” 2% of the time at a given pixel) Hovmoller diagram Moving eastward in time Moving westward in time

11. Principal concern: The main afternoon maximum in the diurnal cycle overwhelms any other signals in the data! One approach: Remove the diurnal cycle from the data

12. EOF1 = Principal diurnal cycle EOF2 = “Earliness” (+) or “lateness” (-) of local max

13. EOF1 = Principal diurnal cycle EOF2 = “Earliness” (+) or “lateness” (-) of local max

14. Residual (once EOF1/diurnal cycle is removed)

15. Residual storm frequency (once EOF1/diurnal cycle is removed) N. Carolina coast Cumberland Plateau (TN) Blue Ridge Mts & Gt. Smoky Mts (NC,VA,WV, MD) Diurnal max is early and pronounced

16. Residual storm frequency (once EOF1/diurnal cycle is removed) 9 m/s 13 m/s 9 m/s 13 m/s 10 m/s -8 m/s Carbone et al. streaks: 9-13 m/s E. of Miss.

17. Preliminary statistics based on 2003-2005 A convective episode has echoes ≥40 dBZ, lasts ≥ 3h, and spans ≥ 100 km Hot off the presses: caveat emptor!

18. 15 episodes present

20. Preliminary statistics based on 2003-2005 A convective episode has echoes ≥40 dBZ, lasts ≥ 3h, and spans ≥ 100 km 740 episodes (~247/year) 354 “long” (≥ 250 km span) episodes (~118/year) avg. span 281 km, avg. duration 6.3 h, avg. speed 11.1 m/s # starting W. of the Blue Ridge front: 478 # of these ending E. of Blue Ridge front: 106 (22%; ~35/year) avg. ending point for episodes initiated over the Blue Ridge mountains: ~Raleigh Hot off the presses: caveat emptor!

21. Preliminary statistics based on 2003-2005 A convective episode has echoes ≥40 dBZ, lasts ≥ 3h, and spans ≥ 100 km Peak months for Blue Ridge crossers (in order): July, May, August, June Peak initiation times for Blue Ridge crossers: 17-21 UTC (peak @ 18Z) Hot off the presses: caveat emptor!

22. Preliminary statistics based on 2003-2005 A convective episode has echoes ≥40 dBZ, lasts ≥ 3h, and spans ≥ 100 km Fraction of episodes that survive past (E. of) the Blue Ridge front: starting west of Cumberland Plateau: 6% starting over Cumberland Plateau: 25% starting over the Blue Ridge mountains: 75% Hot off the presses: caveat emptor! May be an under-estimate because the episode detection scheme doesn’t handle dissipation and reformation particularly well.

23. Preliminary statistics based on 2003-2005 A convective episode has echoes ≥40 dBZ, lasts ≥ 3h, and spans ≥ 100 km # of Westward-moving episodes: 64 (9%; ~21/year) # of these initiated in the coastal zone: 36 (56%; ~12/year) Hot off the presses: caveat emptor!

24. Storm frequency (a value of 0.02 means “dbz ≥ 40” 2% of the time at a given pixel) “other” MCS generated by Apps Generation by Apps + synoptic features “Remnants” cross Apps and phase with new convective dev. (classic)

25. dBZ MCS generated by Apps

26. dBZ Generation by Apps + synoptic features

27. dBZ “Remnants” cross Apps and phase with new dev

28. dBZ Remnants of T.S. “Cindy” “other”

29. Concluding thoughts (work in progress) Eastward-moving convective “episodes” signal (Carbone et al. 2002) is difficult to detect in the eastern U.S. because the afternoon maximum overwhelms every other mode in terms of amplitude Preliminary results: by removing the principal diurnal cycle, the eastward motion of orographically generated convection is revealed A particularly interesting problem in this part of the country…  afternoon convection along the Atlantic sea breeze front may also persist, possibly leading to cell interactions  afternoon maximum in convection over the Appalachians appears to be phased with the arrival of eastward-moving remnant precipitation systems that were produced during the previous day over the central U.S.  timing of the convective systems' arrival over the Gulf Stream appears to be phased with the expected offshore maximum in nocturnal convection that is observed throughout the southeastern U.S. coastal waters

30. Supplemental images