1. Quantifying uncertainties in modelling global isoprene emissions: the role of satellite data Paul Palmer http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/eochem

2. Climate models tend to use simple isoprene emission models E 0 (t) is typically fixed in climate models.

3. TT  PPFD  CO2 CO 2 [ppm]T [K] PPFD transmission  T and  PPFD equations based on MEGAN;  CO2 is from Arneth et al

4. 1)Assume functional form is correct 2)Time-dependent variables x and E opt and empirical coefficients C T1 (=95) and C T2 (=230). Focus on temperature dependence model

5. Fractional perturbation of C T1 Fractional perturbation of C T2 TT X  T is most sensitive to C T1

6. A2 B1 CO 2 [ppm] T S [K] SW [W/m 2 ] Decrease due to increased cloudiness CAVEAT: I have not accounted for direct and diffuse PPFD partitioning Hadley Centre IPCC model runs

7.  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000  T  PPFD 2050 ---- 2100 ____  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000  CO2  T  PPFD A2 B1 Use MEGAN with Hadley model data

8.  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000  T  PPFD 2050 ---- 2100 ____  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000  CO2  T  PPFD A2 B1 Use MEGAN with Hadley model data

9. Economic pressures shift natural ecosystems to agricultural and biofuel crops Foley et al, 2005 Isoprene Flux Results Rainforest vs Oil Palm over Borneo c/o Langford, Miztal, Nemitz and Hewitt

10.  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000 2050 ---- 2100 ____ A2 B1 Even a modest (crude) land-use change scenarios completely changes our main result -2050: double Y2K emissions over Borneo -2100: 25% emission increase over 5S-5N  T  PPFD  CO2  T  PPFD

11.  E isop [Tg/yr/deg] from 2000 2050 ---- 2100 ____ A2 B1 Even a modest (crude) land-use change scenarios completely changes our main result -2050: double Y2K emissions over Borneo -2100: 25% emission increase over 5S-5N  T  PPFD  CO2  T  PPFD

12. Time to parameterise acclimatisation for decadal model calculations? But what about acclimatisation? Monson et al, 1992 grown at 26C grown at 34C Velvet Bean

13. Relating HCHO Columns to Isoprene Emissions VOC HCHO hours OH hours h, OH Net HCHO is significant product of isoprene oxidation Isoprene emissions are typically main driver of variability in HCHO columns observed from space 12 years of HCHO

14. Where When Importance Statistical reduction of 12-year dataset Barkley et al, 2009

15. Scenes influences by fires and cloud have been removed Barkley et al, 2009

16. Amazonian leaf flushing consistent with large-scale reduction of HCHO Working hypothesis: leaf drop and flush in preparation for sunnier, dry conditions in dry season Barkley et al, 2009

17. SPARE SLIDES

18. What drives isoprene emission variability?