1. Yugoslavia

2. One view of the war . . .
“It’s really a tragic problem The hatred between all three groups – the Bosnians, the Serbs, and the Croations – is almost unbelievable. It’s almost terrifying, and it’s centuries old. That really is a problem from hell.”
- Warren Christopher, Secretary of State under President Clinton

3. Geography and Demographics
6 republics: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovinia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia
2 autonomous regions in Serbia: Vojvodina and Kosovo

4. Geography and Demographics
Many ethnic groups: Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, etc.
Serbs largest in country, but not majority
Complications: boundaries of ethnic groups not the same as boundaries of republics!

5. Ancient History
Prior to WWI: Area dominated by Austro-Hungarian (in NW) and Ottoman (in SE) Empires.
No history of fighting, groups not enemies.
At times, groups cooperated to oppose foreign occupying powers.

6. First Yugoslav State Formed at the end of WWI.
Marriage of convenience, entered into willingly by all parties.

7. First Yugoslav State BIG challenges: Poor, war scars, diversity
Political: what would this new state look like?
Serbs: wanted strong, centralized state to protect Serb minority populations in other regions.
Others: wanted decentralized state to protect against Serb domination.

8. First Yugoslav State Solution: a strong, centralized state
Serb preferences won out (this time).
Other groups not happy, but try to work together to iron out problems.

9. WWII Hitler invades Yugoslavia in 1941
Installs puppet regimes in Serbia and Croatia.
Croat state (Ustasha): cleanse Croatia of Serbs.
Serb paramilitaries (Chetniks) organize and fight Ustasha.
Horrific fighting, bitter memories. Irony: Ustasha not popularly chosen.

10. WWII Tito and the Partisans Communists. Integrating force.
Fought with Allies
Fought civil war against Ustasha and Chetniks
Won, took power at close of WWII

11. Tito’s Yugoslavia Inherited a tough situation: Economic devastation
Bitter memories of civil war
Demographic snake pit: what to do about Serbia?

12. Tito’s Yugoslavia Use the CP as an integrating force.
Promote ideology of growth and development.
Stomp out nationalism.
Not a democracy. Dissent and opposition not tolerated. CP only game in town.
Rely on personal popularity and charisma.

13. Tito’s Yugoslavia Give republics autonomy over own affairs.
Each republic gets a veto vote in the Federal Presidency.
Make Vojvodina and Kosovo autonomous regions, give them veto votes in the Federal Presidency also.

14. Tito’s Yugoslavia Consociationalism: Balance and constrain Serb power.
Power-sharing by groups.
Under-represent the largest, over-represent the smallest.
Devolve as much as possible to the sub-national level.
Balance and constrain Serb power.

15. Tito’s Yugoslavia Happy Days:
Country experienced economic growth into the 1970s.
Peace!
But: costs of stifling alternative political voices, vacuum when Tito died.

17. Post-Tito 1980s: Economic slowdown, population distressed, unhappy.
CP bureaucrats paralyzed by crisis:
What was good for one region was bad for another.
Regions used veto in Federal Presidency to block any policy that hurt them.
Stalemate!

18. Post Tito Political crisis also:
Serbian leaders unhappy about status of Kosovo and Vojvodina.
Tried to address problem legally, but were blocked by veto power of other republics.
Deadlock!

19. Moves by Serbia
Serb politicians look for way around the deadlock: appeal to Serb grievances in Kosovo.
Kosovo: historical significance to Serbs.
Serbs a minority in Kosovo (largely for economic reasons), felt discriminated against.
Politicians: Serbs are being run out of their homeland! (exaggerated claim, but effective).
Weakened CP doesn’t shut them down.

20. Moves by Serbia Enter Slobodan Milosevic
1987: President of Serbia, Ivan Stambolic, sends Milosevic to Kosovo to hear out the complaints of the Kosovo Serbs
Was supposed to stick to CP anti-nationalist line.

21. Moves by Serbia Instead, took the side of the nationalists.
Famous words, addressing crowd:
“You will not be beaten again.”

22. Moves by Serbia “Rallies for Truth”
Orchestrated by politicians
Demanded end of autonomy of Vijvodina and Kosovo
Dramatized situation of Serbs in Kosovo
Spread from Serbia to other area of Yugoslavia, escalated in tone and demands.
Non-Serb leaders continue to refuse to negotiate with Milosevic.

23. Moves by Serbia
Milosevic topples leaders in Vojvodina, Kosovo, and Montenegro, installs men loyal to him.
Radical effect on balance of power in Yugoslavia: Milosevic now controls 4 out of 8 votes in the Federal Presidency.

24. Response of Slovenia and Croatia
Leaders of Slovenia and Croatia very nervous, set about trying to weaken the federal authority of Yugoslav state.
Slovenia:
Backed Albanian resistance in Kosovo
Refused to allow rally for truth
Pulled out of Yugoslav CP

25. Response of Slovenia and Croatia
At first: try to broker compromise, preserve Yugoslavia
Strategy changed abruptly with election of Franjo Tudjman in May 1990.

26. Response of Slovenia and Croatia
Tudjman and cronies: provocative nationalists.
Checkerboard flag.
Serbs: secondary minority status.
Purged Serbs in local governments
Talked big about taking Croatia out of Yugoslavia.

27. Escalation
Serb minority in Croatia: scared. Fears played up by Serb politicians.
Summer 1990: Serbs in Krajina (area of Croatia) armed themselves and declared self-rule.
Tudjman: formed own paramilitaries

28. Escalation June 1991: Slovenia and Croatia declare independence.
Serbia lets Slovenia go without fight.

29. Escalation
Not so Croatia. Serbia, plus Yugoslav National Army (JNA), fight to keep it in.
Large-scale war erupts in Croatia. Fighting spread from there to Bosnia.

30. Implications for Ethnicity Theories
Contrary to Primordialism:
The war was not the result of “ancient” hatreds. Conflict between groups was relatively new.
Peace was the norm, not war. If conflict was so inevitable, how did they avoid it for so long?
Why 1990 instead of 1950?
Instrumentalism helps explain timing: the rise of Milosevic and Tudjman.

31. Implications for Ethnicity Theories
But instrumentalism, with its focus on rational cost/benefit calculations, is insufficient.
Why did the people respond? Emotions – anger, fear, distrust, resentment made them receptive. Not “ancient” but no less real.
Also difficult for instrumentalism: the brutality and emotion of the fighting.
Can’t explain a bloody process with a bloodless theory!

32. Implications for Conflict Theories
Yes, grievances existed.
However, they were nothing new. Why did they suddenly flower into conflict? Societal explanations important, but insufficient.

33. Implications for Conflict Theories
Politicians played a critical role: whipped up emotions, initiated conflict.
At national level, change in political leadership important: Tito suppressed nationalism, his successors encouraged it.

34. Implications for Conflict Theories
But also key: the weakness of the Yugoslav state after Tito.
Communist Party: unable to cope with challenges.
Veto power of republics => deadlock.
State unable to contain nationalist politicians, gave them critical window of opportunity.