1. HIST2086 Bismarck: The Iron Chancellor Bismarck’s foreign policy, 1871-9 Lecture 17 11 November 2010

2. 5 Options for Bismarck Revitalising Three Emperors’ League: G + A + R Forging strong alliance + partnership with R Provide imperialist-colonialist compensations for F + R outside EU Making war with F to reach G’s hegemony in EU Balance between + with 5 big powers → Strategy of alliances

3. 3 Phases Phase 1: Three Emperors’ League + war scare, 1871-75 Phase 2: Balkan Crisis + Congress of Berlin + Dual Alliance, 1876-9 Phase 3: Three-Emperors’ Alliance / Triple Alliance + Colonial policy + Bulgarian Crisis + Reinsurance Treaty, 1881-87

4. Three Emperors’ League, Oct 1873 No revival of Holy Alliance of 1815 No block formation of G, R, A = More rivalries than common interests: Bismarck (G): To keep F in check Gorchakov (R): To keep G weak Andrássy (A): To keep G + R apart

5. War scare, 1875 (1) France’s strong efforts to re-militarize: → Bismarck’s offer to Russia for political deal, 1875: ► G’s support of R’s Balkan ambitions ► R’s support of G’s France policy of isolation →To outmanoeuvre pro-French R Gorchakov → To separate R from F ► Gorchakov: Unwilling to give up ‘French option’ = Rising pressure on Germany

6. War scare, 1875 (2) Bismarck’s reaction, spring 1875: Threatened with preventive war to break-up G’s ‘encirclement’ + launched ‘Is War in Sight?’ press article Sent calculated alarm signals to put pressure on + to intimidate F, R, A Predicted a ‘Catholic League’ vs. ‘Protestant Germany’ to win support in G public

7. War scare, 1875 (3) Reactions: F: No halt of militarization program R: No separation from but closer contacts to F + de-facto guarantee for F = Major defeat of Bismarck = Irreparable break Bismarck ≠ Gorchakov = Consolidation of R’s hegemony position in Europe

8. War scare, 1875 (4) Consequences for Bismarck: He had to … Accept political-territorial realities in Europe Recognize 1871 status quo as base of policies of R, A, F Relinquish unsuccessful tactic of terrorizing + hitting isolated enemies Escape ‘encirclement’ not by intimidation + war but by defence + alliance Look for alliance partners vs. R’s hegemony

9. Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (1) Revolt of Christian peasants in Bosnia-Herzegovina + Bulgaria vs. OE rule: R: Strong Pan-Slavistic ambitions + wish to ally with Serbia’s war vs. OE A: Strong opposition to R’s expansionism on Balkan G: Strong fear to be forced to opt for R or A + to break-up Three Emperors’ League

10. Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (2) Bismarck’s reactions: Provocative strategy: To test R’s readiness to agree on political deal: Unsuccessful → R + A consensus over R’s war on OE Compensation strategy: To compensate other powers with parts of OE + to keep Three Emperors’ League intact Honest-broker-strategy: To circumvent G’s alliance decision for R or A

11. Congress of Berlin, Jun-Jul 1878 To revise San Stefano Treaty of Russia-OE: A’s fears of R’s expansionism + GB’s military support of A ► R’s agreement for conference = R: Agreed to divide Great-Bulgaria into 3 parts = OE: Promised domestic reforms = GB: Supported A’s claim to occupy Bosnia- Herzegovina + guaranteed OE’s security in exchange for island of Cyprus

12. Balkan Crisis, 1875-8 (4) Results of Congress of Berlin: → R’s humiliating diplomatic defeat + long-lasting anger about Bismarck + Germany → Definite end of Three Emperors’ League → Dual Alliance of G + A, 1879 = Bismarck’s image as ‘honest broker’ not correct due to his own interest not to opt for either A or R

13. Dual Alliance G-A, Oct 1879 (1) Bismarck’s reasons: R regarded as Slavophil + Francophile: No secure partner for G Saw A as major partner to fight G’s encirclement Regarded as first step to renewed Three Emperors’ League = To improve G’s position vs. R by making A a junior partner = To pave way into more stable Three Emperors’ League connected by mutual alliances

14. Dual Alliance, Oct 1879 (2) Committed G + A to resist R’s aggression To join war only after R’s attack on G or A = Cornerstone + ‘landmark’ of G’s foreign policy, 1879-1918 = Unusual strong commitment during peace times = Stimulated similar treaties until Europe’s pre-1914 division in alliances + counter-alliances