1. Adaptive Management to Conserve Red Knots Gregory Breese Delaware Bay Estuary Project US Fish and Wildlife Service

2. Credits FWS Programs: Fisheries Ecological Services – Coastal Ecological Services – Endangered Species Migratory Birds – R5 Migratory Birds – WO Key External Partners Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission United State Geological Survey New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Delaware Dept of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University British Trust for Ornithology

3. Delaware Bay Adaptive Resource Management Working Group: Conor P. McGowan, USGS, Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit David R. Smith, USGS-Leetown Science Center James D. Nichols, USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center Julien Martin, USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center JohnA. Sweka, US Fish and wildlife Service, Northeast Fishery Center James E. Lyons, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Birds Lawrence J. Niles, Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey Kevin Kalasz, Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Richard Wong, Delaware Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Jeffrey Brust, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Michelle Davis, Virginia Tech University, Dept. of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences Credits

4. Funding Provided by the National Fish & Wildlife Foundation Credits

5. Background

6. Why Delaware Bay?

7. Background

8. Note: No surveys 1986-1999, incomplete survey 2001 Background

9. 2006: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service identifies the red knot as a candidate for Endangered Species Act protection. Background

10. NJ Prohibits Harvest Background

11. Spawner Survey: Background Storm event in 2008: “Mothers Day Nor’easter”

12. 9-12 years for Horseshoe Crab to reach spawning age Background

14. SDM Structured Decision Making Workshop June 2007

15. SDM

16. 1 st Joint Meeting of Crab & Shorebird Technical Committees

17. Problem Statement & Objectives

18. Maximize harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay with constraints that 1)harvest of female crabs is valued only when red knots exceed an abundance threshold or female horseshoe crabs exceed an abundance threshold. 2)Harvest of males is valued only when males do not limit horseshoe crab reproduction (conversely, horseshoe crab population growth rate will not increase with additional males in the population). Problem/Decision Statement

19. 1) full moratorium on both sexes 2) 250,000 males and 0 females 3) 500,000 males and 0 females 4) 280,000 males and 140,000 females 5) 420,000 males and 210,000 females Alternatives

20. Models & Consequences Horseshoe Crab Competing Shorebird Models No Effect Fecundity Fecundity & Survival

21. Adaptive Stochastic Dynamic Programming

22. Optimization Harvest Option 3: 500,000 males and 0 females in the Delaware Bay Population

23. Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

24. Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

25. Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Populations Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

26. Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Population Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

27. Adaptive Management Process ARM Decision Matrix Convert Regional to State Allocations NJ Allocation DE Allocation MD Allocation VA Allocation Delaware Bay Shorebird & Horseshoe Crab Population Red Knot Monitoring Horseshoe Crab Monitoring

28. Models Performance No Effect Fecundity & Survival Fecundity

29. Monitoring: How well do Models Perform? Two Key Monitoring Needs: 1) Horseshoe Crab Trawl Survey 2) Red Knot Marked-Unmarked Ratio

30. www.asmfc.org

31. Questions? Gregory Breese Delaware Bay Estuary Project US Fish and Wildlife Service