1. Baaaaaaaaaaaaad to the Bone AiSC STI 04 Team 2

2. Team Members  Alan Daugherty Alan Daugherty  Kyla Johnson Kyla Johnson  Dianne Kemp Dianne Kemp  Vernetta Noble Vernetta Noble  Rebecca Raulie Rebecca Raulie

3. Project Mentors  Irene Lee  Dick Allen  Nick Bennett

4. Mary had a Little Lamb Churro Sheep Decendents from Churra, an ancient Iberian breed Brought jto U.S. 400 years ago by the Spanish Endangered Breed Navajo Sheep Project

5. The Churro sheep have been a mainstay of the Navajo survivalNavajo These unique sheep, whose wool are used in the beautiful Navajo blankets, have been slaughtered in attempts at genocide,. Vasquez de Coronado brought the Churro sheep from Southern Spain in 1540 Juan de Onate brought 5,000 more sheep. White and Black in Color Interesting Facts

6. Characteristics Long protective top coat Soft undercoat Well suited to extremes of climate Rams have four fully developed horns The ewes lamb easily Meat is superior tasting and low fat

7. Problem Statement Churros were mixed with other breeds Our project is concerned with the time involved to replace our breeding herd stock with only Churros and the economic costs of doing so.

8. Math Model Problem: How long will it take to replace an existing herd of Fine Wool sheep with Churro sheep ( and what will be the economic impact of the change ) given the following parameters:

9. Herd size = 100 head. 90% ewes, 10% rams. All animals will be culled eachsix years (due to death and replacement). Young lambs will be used as replacement stock, or sold. Each year all stock will be sheared and the fleeces sold.

10. Breed Information Fine Wools: lambs sell for $30. Fleeces average 10 lbs. Wool brings $0.70 per lb. Shearing costs $2 per head. Ewes have a 90% chance of a single lamb and a 10% chance of twins. Lambing rate equals 90%. Churros: lambs sell for $40. Fleeces average 9 lbs and the wool brings $1.00 per lb. Shearing costs $2.50 per head (due to different coats). Ewes have a 50% chance of single lambs, 35% chance of twins, and a 15% chance of triplets. Lambing rate equals 95%

11. Basic assumptions: Both breeds will produce offspring that are 50% male, 50% female. Both breeds can inhabit the same range conditions and have no significant differences in feeding costs or other costs of care. Herd size is limited by available land grazing capacity. Herd breed replacement is based upon the addition of ten churro ewes and one churro ram into the existing herd. Fine Wool mature animals = $125 per head. Churro mature animals = $150 each. The model begins with the addition of 10 Churro ewes and 1 Churro ram.

12. Flock size = #FW {number Fine Wool} + #C {number churro} = 100 Initial values: #FW = 89 #C = 11 Number of lambs: #FWL {number of Fine Wool lambs} =.90 [% FW ewes} (#FW(.9 x 1 {single lambs}) + #FW(.1 x 2 {twins})) x.9 {birth/survival rate} #CL {number of Churro lambs} =.90 [% C ewes} (#C(.5 x 1 {single lambs}) + #C(.35 x 2 {twins}) + #C(.15 x 3 [triplets} )) x.9 {birth/survival rate}

13. Wool Income: Wool Income = (#FW(10 x $.7) - #FW($2)) + (#C(9 x $1) - #C($2.5)) Flock Growth: Replacements: #CR {# Churro replacements} = #C - (#C/6 {culls/death}) FWR {# Fine Wool replacements} = #FW - (#FW/6 {culls/death})

14. Churro Growth: #CEweL {# Churro ewe lambs} = #CL x.5 #CRamL {# Churro ram lambs} = #CL x.5 Churro Increase = #CEweL - #CR Excess Churro = #CRamL -.1 {% rams in flock} x #CR #C = #C + Churro Increase #FWExtras = #FW - Churro Increase {maintains flock size at 100 head} #FW = #FW - #FWExtras

15. LImits on Churros: IF #C > 100 THEN Extra Churro lamb sales = #C - 100 #C = #C - Extra Churro lamb sales Excess Fine Wools: Excess FW = #FWL - #FWR

16. Income: Churro lamb income = Excess Churro x $40 Fine Wool lamb income = Excess FW x $30 Extra Churro lamb income = Extra Churro lamb sales x $40 FWExtras income = #FWExtras x $125 Wool Income = (#FW(10 lbs x $.70 per lb) {fleece wt and price} - #FW($2){shearing cost}) + (#C(9 lbs x $1 per lb) {fleece wt and price} - #C($2.50){shearing cost}) Total income = Wool Income + Churro lamb income + Fine Wool lamb income + Extra Churro lamb income + NFWExtras income

17. FWC Model In Excel Click here to view our excel model

18. StarLogo Check out our StarLogo Model

19. Acknowledgements We would like to thank everyone from Consult, our judges, and volunteers

20. More Pictures

21. The End Visit our web pageour