1. Adaptation to Impacts of Climate Change An Overview An Overview May 19, 2011 James L. Buizer Science Policy Advisor to the President Arizona State University

2. 1.Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced -Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. -This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. Key Findings

3. 2. Climate Changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow These include: -Increases in heavy downpours -Rising temperature -Rising sea level -Rapidly retreating glaciers -Thawing permafrost -Lengthening growing seasons -Lengthening ice-free seasons etc Key Findings

4. Carbon Dioxide levels are higher than in 800,000 years; global average temperatures have been rising in tandem with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases

5. 3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase -Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. 4. Climate Change will stress water resources -Drought is important in many regions, especially in the West. -Floods and water quality problems - likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. -Declines in mountain snowpack in the West and Alaska - provides vital natural water storage. Key Findings

6. 5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged -Many crops show positive responses to elevated carbon dioxide and low levels of warming. But higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and yields. - Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. 6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise and storm surge Increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure - very likely to be adversely affected. Key Findings

7. 7. Risks to human health will increase Related to increasing heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. 8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses Key Findings Number of Days Over 100ºF Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

8. 9. Thresholds will be crossed leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems These thresholds determine, for example: - the presence of sea ice and permafrost, - the survival of species, from fish to insect pests Key Findings

9. 10. Future climate and its impacts depends on choices made today The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. Key Findings

10. Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase 10

11. Coastal Communities Sea-level rise and storm surge will increase threats to homes and infrastructure including water, sewer, transportation, and communication systems. Many barrier islands and coastal marshes that protect the coastline and support healthy ecosystems will be lost.. Agriculture Increasing heat, pests, floods, weeds, and water stress will present increasing challenges for crop and livestock production. ecosystems will be lost.. Water Supply Reduced summer runoff, increased winter runoff, and increasing demands will compound current stresses on water supplies and flood management, especially in the West.. Energy Supply Warming will decrease demand for heating energy in winter and increase demand for cooling energy in summer. The latter will result in significant increases in electricity use and peak demand in most regions. Key Finding: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase 11

12. Climate Change is Already Impacting Society Economy Economy Communities Communities Energy production/supply Energy production/supply Human health Human health Water availability Water availability Food production Food production National security National security Tribal cultures Tribal cultures Biodiversity Biodiversity Ecosystem services that people depend on (e.g. clean water, Ecosystem services that people depend on (e.g. clean water, coastal protection, food, recreation) coastal protection, food, recreation)...and will challenge our missions and operations

13. Future Climate Change The future depends largely on choices people make now Actions to reduce greenhouse Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will help limit gas emissions will help limit future warming and the need to adapt future warming and the need to adapt Even with emissions reductions, some degree of climate change will continue to occur into the future Even with emissions reductions, some degree of climate change will continue to occur into the future Adaptation and mitigation Adaptation and mitigation are interconnected are interconnected

14. Future Climate Change Throughout this century, climate change is projected to bring... Rising temperatures Rising temperatures Increases in heavy downpours Increases in heavy downpours Rising sea level Rising sea level Rapidly retreating glaciers Rapidly retreating glaciers Thawing permafrost Thawing permafrost Lengthening growing seasons Lengthening growing seasons Lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers Lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers Earlier snowmelt Earlier snowmelt Alterations of river flows Alterations of river flows Shifts in the timing of seasons Shifts in the timing of seasons

15. What is Adaptation … And why does it matter? NOAA NASA –GSFC USGCRP 2009

16. The Climate is Already Changing Scientific consensus shows that the Earth’s climate is changing due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Global average temperature Global average temperature and carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide concentrations have risen concentrations have risen substantially since 1880 substantially since 1880 Most of the warming in the past Most of the warming in the past 50 years has been over land 50 years has been over land and in the Northern Hemisphere and in the Northern Hemisphere Year-round average temperatures Year-round average temperatures in the U.S. have already risen 2°F in the U.S. have already risen 2°F over the past 50 years over the past 50 years

17. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Warming “Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States.” - USGCRP 2009 Warming has not been uniform across the world or the nation Warming has not been uniform across the world or the nation Agencies need to plan for varying conditions and impacts across regions and sectors Agencies need to plan for varying conditions and impacts across regions and sectors Extreme heat, CDC “Drunken trees,” NSIDC

18. Projected Temperature Change (°F) from 1961-1979 Baseline Temperatures have already risen in the US an average of 1.5 degrees F in the last 50 years and could rise 2 to 11 degrees in the next century…. Higher Emissions Scenario Lower Emissions Scenario Mid-Century (2041-2059 average) End of Century (2081-2099 av.) Recent Change (1993-2007) Near-Term Projected Change (2011-2029)

19. Climate Change Impacts Are Not Distributed Evenly Drought frequency has increased in the Southeast and much of the West Drought frequency has increased in the Southeast and much of the West Heavy precipitation has increased most in the Midwest and Northeast Heavy precipitation has increased most in the Midwest and Northeast For example… Midwestern flooding, NRCSWestern drought, CA Dept. of Water Resources

20. Vulnerability Is Not Distributed Evenly Social/economic factors Social/economic factors Economic status, race, gender, age, ethnicity, Economic status, race, gender, age, ethnicity, and health and health Environmental factors Environmental factors Pollution, over-harvesting, and habitat destruction Pollution, over-harvesting, and habitat destruction Vulnerability to climate change and the capacity to adapt vary widely Wetlands, NOAAHealthy and Bleached Coral, NOAA Elderly men, PublicDomainPictures.net

21. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Precipitation U.S. average annual precipitation has increased about 5% U.S. average annual precipitation has increased about 5% over the past 50 years, but the changes were not uniform over the past 50 years, but the changes were not uniform Iowa flooding, FEMA Wetlands drought, USDA

23. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.: Extreme Events Heavy precipitation has increased in both frequency Heavy precipitation has increased in both frequency and intensity over the past 50 years and intensity over the past 50 years Rainstorm, NOAA Winter storm, Texas, FEMA Snowstorm, Northeast, NOAA

25. One definition: Adaptation: Adjustment in human or natural systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects (ACC Adapting) IPCC 2007

26. Effectively Anticipating and Responding to a Changing Climate Requires… A continuously evolving understanding of the integrated “climate-society system” to address today’s challenges and plan for the future and An adaptive management approach that provides for regular evaluation and adjustment of decisions as new scientific insights emerge and socio-economic conditions change

27. UKCIP 2003 Adaptation is Iterative Risk Management… U A common sense approach:

28. Refuel vehicles after dark Encourage mass transportation use by offering free services on Air Quality Alert Days Encourage residents to limit car travel, especially during daytime Conserve energy Avoid outdoor burning Examples of Adaptation: Improving Urban Air Quality

29. Adaptation: reframing the things we do every day Managers make decisions with imperfect information all the time – why is climate change different? Adaptive management – deliberate learning by doing Co-benefits – justify action by addressing other priorities Small institutional and legal changes can make a big difference, eg eliminating conflicting mandates Potential for partnerships and economic opportunity An excuse to do the things that make sense anyway, integrated planning, changes to the National Flood Insurance program, etc.

30. Reframing: Expand the solution set to include new technologies and practices Expand portfolio of technology solutions: desalination, reuse and recharge of municipal wastewater, rainwater harvesting, improved management of floodflows, integration/redundancy of delivery systems for reliability

31. Reframing: Mainstreaming adaptation into every day decisions US Infrastructure is aging and needs replacement. Re- evaluate engineering assumptions re: potential for more extreme events and longer-term droughts Non-stationarity: the past is no longer an analogue for the future

32. Adaptation The magnitude and rate of future change depends on whether we act to limit emissions, and how the earth system reacts to the resulting emissions trajectory Should we act proactively in anticipation of change and mobilize to reduce the effects, or simply prepare to react as the impacts arrive?

33. Adaptation Adaptation is not a choice – our choice is whether to adapt proactively or respond to the consequences. We have always adapted to variability – but now the trends are moving outside of human experience and we need to be prepared. Adaptation requires a paradigm shift, focusing on managing risks. We know the trends, but not the magnitude. And coming soon – the report to the President from the Adaptation Task Force

34. Vision A resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in the face A resilient, healthy, and prosperous Nation in the face of a changing climate of a changing climate Universities achieving their missions and policy Universities achieving their missions and policy and program goals in a changing climate and program goals in a changing climate Wise investment of resources and effective provision of Federal services Wise investment of resources and effective provision of Federal services Adaptation planning and implementation will help ensure…

35. What is Climate Change Adaptation? Adaptation Limits climate change risks & damages Limits climate change risks & damages Maximizes benefits & opportunities Maximizes benefits & opportunities Reduces long-term costs Reduces long-term costs Improves the overall resilience of our organizations Improves the overall resilience of our organizations Adjusting to a changing climate to reduce negative effects and take advantage of new opportunities

36. Why Adaptation is Important for Colleges & Universities Anticipation and planning for risk are responsible, forward-looking management practices Planning ahead will help Colleges and Universities operate, achieve their missions, and provide services while reducing long-term costs

37. Why Adaptation is Important for Federal Agencies Climate change directly affects communities and a wide range of Federal services, operations, programs, and assets Agencies that work outdoors: extreme heat, cold, and storms Agencies that work outdoors: extreme heat, cold, and storms Health agencies: extreme heat, air pollution, and shifting disease vectors Health agencies: extreme heat, air pollution, and shifting disease vectors Public land managers: drought, flooding, and wildfire Public land managers: drought, flooding, and wildfire Agricultural and wildlife agencies: shifting ranges of species and pests Agricultural and wildlife agencies: shifting ranges of species and pests Social service providers: multiple stressors on vulnerable populations Social service providers: multiple stressors on vulnerable populations