1. Energy security What does it mean? 4th July 2011 Petra Kuchynkova

2. Energy security Different definitions 5 Ss: supply (having resources, such as fossil fuels, alternative energy and renewable energy); sufficiency (adequate quantity of fuel and services from these sources); surety (having access to them); survivability (resilient and durable sources of energy in the face of disruption or damage); sustainability (reducing waste and limiting damage to the environment) 4 „A“s: availability, accessibility, affordability, acceptability

3. Energy security - definitons European Commission: „Uninterrupted physical availability of energy products on the market at an affordable price for all consumers.“ International Energy Agency: „Adequate, affordable and reliable access to energy fuels and services, it includes availability of resources, decreasing dependence on imports, decreasing pressures on the environment, competition and market efficiency, reliance on indigenous resources that are environmentally clean, and energy services that are affordable and equitably shared World Bank: „Access to secure supplies of fuel, a competitive market that distributes those fuels, stability of resource flows and transit points, and efficiency of end use D.Yergin: „Reliable and affordable access to energy supplies, diversification, integration into energy markets, and the provision of information

4. Energy security - definiton Usually 3 components are included: Reliability Affordability Environmental friendliness Different perspectives of the consumer, supplier and transit country

5. Energy security Perspective of the consumer How to achieve energy security? Diversity of energy resources Diversity of suppliers Storage of energy and strategic petroleum reserves Redundant energy infrastructure Flexibility to shift fuels

6. Energy security Producers and resource exporters Economic characteristics – danger of „Dutch Disease“? Political regimes – especially major oil exporters display a strong common tendency to be governed by non-democratic regimes („rentier effect“, „repression effect“, „modernization effect“) Stability of regimes Middle East X states of former Soviet Union

7. Energy security Producers´perspective Energy and foreign policy Resource nationalism Possibility to use oil or gas „weapons“? Different characteristics of oil and gas markets and trade Gas – dependence or interdependece between the exporter and the consumer? Energy weapon or commercial considerations?

8. Energy security – oil and gas Role of transit states Could they use „energy weapon“? Direct linkages (e.g. Kazakhstan-China pipeline) X big international projects (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Nabucco?) Landlocked states-producers: rise of the importance of that phenomenon after USSR disintegration Role of transit states: Georgia, Turkey

10. Energy resources – conflict potential Energy – potential both for interstate conflict and cooperation Border-delimitation conflicts Border hotspots: Iran-Qatar (South Pars field); Spratly Islands in the South China Sea (China X Vietnam); East China Sea (China X Japan) Peace potential of pipelines? Potential conflict areas? Arctic Circle Caspian Sea

13. Energy security – vulnerability of transport routes Vulnerable energy transport chokepoints Strait of Hormuz Strait of Malacca Bosporus Strait Terrorism and vulnerability of energy infrastructure

15. Energy security - Nuclear energy Rising popularity during periods of rising prices of oil (after 1970´s oil crisis etc.) X Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima Electricity production (cca 16 % of world production) X Cannot replace oil in transport (potentially production of hydrogen) Low emissions of climate-altering gases Advocates and opponents among the EU member states X Proliferation of nuclear weapons (commercial fuel-making facility = latent nuclear bomb factory?; opportunities for terrorists)

16. Nuclear energy Factors of Price (more expensive than other conventional sources of electricity Safety and environmental concerns (difficulties in disposing of nuclear waste) Weapons proliferation concerns (Iran – UN Security Council sanctions) Nuclear reactors as objects of terrorist attacks

17. Energy security and climate changes World´s continuing dependece on fossil fuels Climate change no longer considered only an issue relating to quality of life and the environment, but also directly affecting human and global security (2007 UN Security Council – climate change as an international security threat) Energy consumption patterns and policies have become international security issue ¾ of of world´s CO 2 emissions produced by burning fossil fuels (rest – deforestation etc.), oil, coal X natural gas Events like Hurricane Katrina in the USA

18. Energy and climate changes 1992 – UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Earth Summit) in Rio – universal membership X no concrete government commitments for limiting emissions 1997 Kyoto Protocol – 38 industrialized nations agreed to cut emissions of 6 greenhouse gases to an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-12 X only partially applies to economies in transition and developing countries (China, India) are not obliged 2007 – China overtook USA in greenhouse gases emissions System of emissions trading –using market mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (inspiration with U.S. emissions-trading program for SO 2 2005 – EU emissions-trading system x effectivity in reducing emissions in EU Kyoto – only a symbol for the public? Lack od effective legal and enforcement framework

19. Energy and climate changes Post-Kyoto 2007 – Bali – road map document adopted – framework for the negociations about the new treaty X no fundamentaly new framework or binding emissions reductions Unanimous endorsement (incl. USA, EU, China, India) X failure of Copenhagen conference in 2009 (attempt to adopt framework replacing Kyoto)

20. Energy and climate changes The future – rather the consensus of top emitters than wide encompassing agreement? Biofules? (Danger of deforestation) „Climate change policy requires current populations to make material sacrifices to avert danger to future generations“ (Brenda Shaffer) Ethical problem of emissions-trade mechanisms Responsibility of developing countries, access to new technologies Addressing climate changes create a significant challenge to the sovereignty of the state in international system – state security can become dependent on the actions of other states; demands to radically change organization of states´economies and lifestyles

21. Actors of energy security in Eurasia - Russia World´s largest natural gas reserves Second-largest coal reserves Eighth-largest proven oil reserves Major producer of nuclear energy (export of technologies, reactors, fuel, waste processing and storage) Revenues from energy export are largest source of foreign earnings More diversified economy than most of the world´s major energy producers (Persian Gulf states) 20 – 25 % of Russia´s GDP from oil and gas, revenues from this sector – cca 37% of state budget (before financial crisis)

22. Russia – geopolitical dimension of energy security Close to two major energy markets (EU, China) At the same time in a sense a landlocked state – most of the ports are not operational for the whole year for weather conditions (Novorossiysk on Black Sea + Bosporus Strait) Important feature of foreign energy policy: to reduce dependency on exports through transit states Energy Policy Strategy until 2020 (from 2003) – Russia sees energy resources as a strategic resource for economic development and as a geopolitical tool Russia´s export infrastructure must be sufficiently diversified to allow exports to all directions X Limited sea access for oil export and relying on gas pipelines „Dependece“ on transit states

24. Europe Role of energy in the process of European integration Energy resources 1% of world´s proven oil reserves 2% of world´s proven natural gas reserves 4% of the world´s proven coal reserves By 2020 2/3 of European energy consumption is expected to be imported X EU is the 2nd largest consumer of energy in the world

25. EU TPEC 42% oil 24% natural gas 14% nuclear energy 13% coal 6% renewables Portion of natural gas in TPEC rose rapidly over last 3 decades Electricity mix 31% nuclear 30% coal 20% natural gas 4% oil Member states split on the issue of nuclear energy

26. Future challenges Rising role of China as a world economy and energy consumer Changes in the world gas market GECF Shale gas extraction Influence of LNG and spot market on gas prices and long-term contracts

27. Sources Sovacool (2011): The Routledge Handbook of Energy Security. Routledge. Shaffer, B. (2009): Energy Politics. University of Pennsylvania Press