1. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 Climate change policy Philip Lloyd Energy Institute Cape Peninsula University of Technology

2. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 What I want to talk about The nature of climate change The known impacts of climate change The Green Paper The problems with the proposed policy A possible solution

3. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The nature of climate change Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere –CO 2 has increased from ~300ppm to ~380ppm in the last century Physics says the gases will trap heat We have seen an increase in temperature in the last century –But the increase is not very significant

4. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 But the increase is not very significant Average daytime Highest Average nighttime Lowest

5. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The known impacts Because the change is not very significant, the impacts of a century of change are barely detectable –“Higher temperatures will influence the rainfall, but it is still uncertain how the annual rainfall will change. It could increase in some parts of the country, and decrease in other parts.” (SAWS) – Some places will see more violent events –And other places will see less!

6. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 Some will see more - - and others less!

7. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The known impacts II After a century of change, changes are detectable; it is debatable if they are significant Even things like sea level rise –Satellite measurements give a general 3mm/year globally –South Africa is seeing less than this –Our defences against the sea are already in place –This century’s rise seems unlikely to be disastrous

8. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 This century’s rise seems unlikely to be disastrous

9. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The known impacts III Malaria and tropical diseases will NOT be impacted –they are public-health driven, not temperature driven There will be more storm damage –Because there are more structures to be damaged –Because the value of the structures at risk has increased –NOT because the storms are more violent

10. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The Green Paper “Government regards climate change as one of the greatest threats to sustainable development” Really? What about water, poverty, health, housing, sanitation, pollution? The impacts of these are significant and immediate In contrast, climate change is detectable and its impacts lie in the future

11. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The Green Paper II “The stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that prevents - - interference with the climate system will require the - - implementation of an effective and binding global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reductions.” Therefore there is no point in reducing our emissions unless and until there is an effective and binding global agreement

12. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The Green Paper III “South Africa - - is committed to reducing its own greenhouse gas emissions in order to successfully facilitate - - an effective and binding global agreement.” Why? How could our unilateral reduction facilitate anything? –SA emits ~125MtC annually –China’s emissions are growing at ~200MtC each year –Any reduction we made would be invisible in the global atmosphere We would feel any effects of increased CO 2 even if our emissions were nil

13. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 The Green Paper IV “Although there will be costs associated with South Africa’s greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts, there will also be significant - - social and economic benefits, including improved international competitiveness - - from a transition to a low carbon economy. These costs will be far less than the costs of delay and inaction.” All of this is highly questionable –We have CHEAP coal – no low-carbon energy comes near it Lord Stern’s analysis is just wrong!

14. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 Transition to a low C economy? Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

15. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 A possible solution We need to make some sort of gesture at Durban when the Conference of Parties meets there later this year. Of course, it would be nice to have a carbon policy in place, but that is impractical At Copenhagen in December 2009, Pres. Zuma scored a diplomatic coup

16. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 A possible solution II His work led to the Copenhagen Accord, in terms of which the developed nations would pay the developing to assist reducing emissions We have enough information to be able to cost our emission reduction proposals quite accurately The Department should be asked to prepare the costs of mitigation to be placed before the Durban COP –And put carbon reduction on hold until the world agrees

17. Parliamentary Portfolio Committee March 2011 Thank you for inviting me! Any questions?