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Published byCharleen Hester Price Modified over 9 years ago
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Мировой Рынок Хлопка Андрей Гичунц, МККХ 4 Медународная Ярмарка и Конференция 17 Сентября 2007, Ташкент
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Million tons World Production & Consumption Production Consumption
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World Ending Stocks Million tons
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World Production
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World Cotton Yield Kg/ha 756
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World Cotton Area and Prices U.S. cts/lb Million hectares
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Production by Country Million tons
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World Cotton Mill Use Million Tons
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Cotton Mill Use China (M), India, and Pakistan Million tons China (Mainland) India Pakistan
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World Imports Million tons
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World Exports Million tons
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Biotech Cotton % of World Cotton Area
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ICAC Price Model 1988 Predicts season-average Cotlook A Index Variables: –S/U ratio in world-less-China (M) –Net imports by China (M) as a % of mill use in the rest of the world Predicted prices 2 years in advance Worked relatively well until 2003/04
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ICAC Price Model 2007 Predicts season-average Cotlook A Index Variables: –S/MU ratio in World-less-China (M) = most important –S/MU ratio in China (M) Predicts prices one year in advance (ex: April 2008 for 2008/09 season-average) Monthly adjustment of forecast according to actual prices up to that date
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Cotlook A Index Season-average (US cents/lb) average 73/74 – 97/98 = 74 cents/lb average 98/99 – 06/07 = 56 cents/lb 77 59 68
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Stocks-to-Mill Use Ratio: World-less-China (M)
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International Cotton Advisory Committee
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