1. Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008 Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre

2. 190020002100 Globally averaged warming (ºC) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 B1A1TB2 A1BA2A1FI Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming

4. (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS) Cooling Effect of Aerosols

5. Dangerous Warming Commitment (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

7. (Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS) G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand

8. Integrated Assessment Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures: Mitigation Adaptation Development

9. Identify Ecological Assets Economic Sectors Social Systems highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects Prioritize accordingly! Action Field Check

10. Development Lose Invest in Win-Win-Win Options Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks Adaptation Mitigation Win Stagnate LoseWinStagnate Lose Win Stagnate

11. LLL Examples Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions „Stradification“ of natural habitats Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations WWW Examples Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers Sustainable architecture

12. Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai

13. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area

15. Nouakchott, Mauritania

16. www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.

17. (1) Biodiv/Wilderness moderately protected (2) Cropland not expanded Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub. 17 % of current global primary energy demand 81 EJ/yr 557 Mha (not irrigated) Fractional Plantation Area (2nd Generation Bioenergy) Bioenergy Potential (no irrigation)

19. Energy Tower Principle

20. Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago