1. UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI PAVIA FACOLTÀ DI ECONOMIA, GIURISPRUDENZA, INGEGNERIA, LETTERE E FILOSOFIA, SCIENZE POLITICHE Corso di Laurea Interfacoltà in Comunicazione Professionale e Multimedialità HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS A comparison of eight cases Relatore: Prof. Guido Legnante Correlatrice: Prof. Flavio Chiapponi Tesi di laurea di: Cinzia Brandalese Anno Accademico 2011/2012

2. Cases Elections: -Election of 1994; -Election of 1996; -Election of 2006; -Election of 2008. HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS Local elections: -Trieste 1993; -Trieste 1997; -Bologna 1999; -Milano 2011. How to…LOSE the elections

3. Elections Coalition government; Exposure; Agenda/ Issues; Polls; Electoral turnout; Leader; HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS FACTORS : + OTHER “Other” represent all the factors which we cannot analysed sistematically. For example: political climate, electoral system or the duration of the political campaign.

4. Elections HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS ELECTION OF 1994 COALITION GOVERNMENT ●●● ( ● ) EXPOSURE ●●●● AGENDA / ISSUES ●●● ELECTORAL TURNOUT ●● POLLS ●● ( ● ) LEADER ●●●● OTHER ●●●● ● less relevant ●● rather relevant ●●● relevant ●●●● very relevant ●●●●● decisive ELECTION OF 1996 COALITION GOVERNMENT ●●●● ( ● ) EXPOSURE ●●● AGENDA / ISSUES ●●●● ELECTORAL TURNOUT ● POLLS (●)(●) LEADER ●●● OTHER ●●● ELECTION OF 2006 COALITION GOVERNMENT ●●● ( ● ) EXPOSURE ●●●● AGENDA / ISSUES ●●● ELECTORAL TURNOUT ●● POLLS ●● ( ● ) LEADER ●●●● OTHER ●●●●

5. Election 2008 HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS COALITION GOVERNMENT ●●●● ( ● ) This factor is negative for the centre-left leader who decides to stand for election without the (extreme) left’s alliance. EXPUSURE ● The factor is especially used (with moderation) by the leader of the centre-right alliance. AGENDA/ ISSUES ●● This factor is underused by both coalitions government.. ELECTORAL TURNOUT ●●●● The factor is unfavorable for the centre-left: voters choose the abstention to express their discontent. POLLS ● Polls describe the progress of the electoral campaign, although the election result is a foregone conclusion. LEADER ●●●● The factor is negative for the centre-left coalition and much less effective for the centre-right one (Berlusconi tries to keep the advantage with a moderate electoral campaign).. OTHER ●●●● The factor appears decisive for both coalitions government (negative opinion climate, flash campaign and anticipated ballot), especially for the centre-left one. ● less relevant ●● rather relevant ●●● relevant ●●●● very relevant ●●●●● decisive

6. Local elections Opinion climate; Candidate; Political campaign. HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS FACTORS : WHY? - There are few data available; - They are less influential than the elections.

7. Local elections HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS TRIESTE 1993 OPINION CLIMATE ●●●●● CANDIDATE ●●●● ( ● ) ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ●●●● ( ● ) TRIESTE 1997 OPINION CLIMATE ●●● CANDIDATE ●●●●● ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ●●●● ( ● ) BOLOGNA 1999 OPINION CLIMATE ●●●●● CANDIDATE ●●●● ( ● ) ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ●●●● ( ● ) ● less relevant ●● rather relevant ●●● relevant ●●●● very relevant ●●●●● decisive

8. Milano 2011 HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS OPINION CLIMATE ●●● ( ● ) The factor is negative for the centre-right alliance: citizens discontent deeply influenced the results. On the contrary, it can be considered positive for the centre- left coalition despite the political tendency of the city (called” culla berlusconiana”). CANDIDATE ●●●● ( ● ) The factor is unfavorable for the centre-right: the incumbent mayor chooses to stand again despite the negative climate. On the contrary, the candidate of the centre-left coalition turns out to be the best choice.. ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ●●●●●. The factor is negative for the centre-right coalition which makes a lot of wrong choices, for example an aggressive and formal campaign, as opposed to the centre-left one (closer to the citizens, in particular young people). Social network obtains good relevance. ● less relevant ●● rather relevant ●●● relevant ●●●● very relevant ●●●●● decisive

9. Comparison among elections HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS ELECTION OF 1994 ELECTION OF 1996 ELECTION OF 2006 ELECTION OF 2008 COALITION GOVERNMENT ●●● ( ● ) ●●●● ( ● ) ●(●)●(●) ●●●● EXPOSURE ●●●●●●● ●●●● ( ● ) ● AGENDA / ISSUES ●●●●●●● ●● ELECTORAL TUROUT ●●●●●●●●●● POLLS ●● ( ● )(●)(●) ●●●● LEADER ●●●● ( ● ) ●●● ●●●● ( ● ) ●●●● OTHER ●●●●●●●●(●)●(●) ●●●●

10. Comparison among local elections HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS TRIESTE 1993 TRIESTE 1997 BOLOGNA 1999 MILANO 2011 OPINION CLIMATE ●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●● ( ● ) CANDIDATE ●●●● ( ● ) ●●●●● ●●●●●●●● ( ● ) ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN ●●●● ( ● ) ●●●●●●●●

11. How to lose the elections? HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS LEADER COALITION GOVERNMENT ELECTORAL TURNOUT POLLS EXPOSURE OPINION CLIMATE ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN AGENDA/ISSUES ELECTORAL SYSTEM POLITICAL MARKETING ANTICIPATE D BALLOTS ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN DURATION OTHER RESULTSRESULTS

12. HOW TO LOSE THE ELECTIONS Coalition governement Polls Exposure Leader Agenda/ Issues Opinion climate Electoral Campaign Political marketing Other Electoral Campaign duration Electoral system Electoral turnout Anticipated ballots