1. Offender Population Forecasting in Virginia

2. 2 Background - Studies by JLARC in 1980s  Staff of the Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population.  A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process toward a more open, participative process. “The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.” Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)

3. 3 Background - Consensus Forecasting  A more open, participative forecasting process was implemented in the late 1980s and remains in use today. This process is known as “consensus” forecasting.  The Secretary of Public Safety oversees this annual process.

4. 4 Authorization – Appropriation Act

5. 5 Committee Structure  Technical Advisory Committee Members include personnel from various state agencies who have expertise in statistical and quantitative methods.  Technical/Policy Liaison Work Group Members include staff of House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees as well as agency deputy directors and senior managers.  Policy Advisory Committee Members include policy makers and other decision makers who administer the criminal justice system.

6. 6 Technical Advisory Committee Membership  Department of Corrections (DOC)  Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ)  Department of Planning and Budget (DPB)  Department of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS)  Compensation Board (CB)  Supreme Court of Virginia (SCV)  Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission (VCSC)  Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC)  VCU Economics Professor  Chairperson selected by the Secretary of Public Safety Meredith Farrar-Owens (2006-2008)

7. 7 Policy Advisory Committee Membership  Secretary of Public Safety  DOC Director  DJJ Director  DPB Director  DCJS Director  Virginia Parole Board Chair  Virginia State Police Colonel  Compensation Board Executive Secretary  Supreme Court of Virginia  Commonwealth’s Attorney  Sheriff  Police Chief  Members of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees  Members Senate and House Courts Committees

8. 8 Four Inmate Population Forecasts Produced  State-responsible (SR) inmate population Population housed in DOC prison facilities State-responsible inmates housed in jails  Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and federal prisoners)  Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population  Juvenile detention home (JDH) population

9. 9 Technical Advisory Committee  Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models. Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels.  The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards.  The forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group.  The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.

10. 10 Technical-Policy Liaison Work Group  The Work Group reviews the projections proposed by the Technical Committee.  The Work Group can request additional data or analysis as needed.  The Work Group selects which forecasts the Policy Committee should consider.

11. 11 Policy Advisory Committee  The Policy Committee reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population.  This Committee also considers the effects of recent trend shifts and newly adopted legislation. The committee can approve adjustments to the forecast to account for the impact of such changes, as it deems appropriate.

12. Local-Responsible Population

13. 13 Local Responsible Jail Population FY1999-FY2008 FY2008 Forecast Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008) Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported. Actual Local-Responsible Population

14. 14 Local-Responsible Prisoner Population Growth +8.3%+5.1%+4.4%+5.1% +2.7%+7.5%+7.2% -1.7% Note: Data are based on the average population for each fiscal year reported. FY2006 & FY2007 figures have been revised to reflect the most recent data available. Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008)

15. 15 Felony Defendants in Circuit Court Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)  Following growth of 9.5% in 2006, the number of felony defendants grew by 3.5% in 2007.

16. 16 Misdemeanor Cases Concluded in Virginia’s General District Courts  Misdemeanor cases (including criminal traffic misdemeanors) concluded in general district court increased by 2.7% in 2006 and 2.5% in 2007. Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)

17. 17 Forensic Analysis Caseload and End-of-Year Backlog Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary (January 2001-May 2008) Note: FY2008 figure reflects May 2008 backlog.  The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases.  Between FY03 and FY06, the drug case backlog increased 371%, while the backlog for all other cases combined increased 30%.  Between FY06 and FY08, the drug case backlog decreased by 90%, while the backlog for all other cases combined decreased 30%.

18. Proposed Local-Responsible Population Forecasts Historical DCJS High DCJS Low DCJS Avg. DPB

19. Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast YearFY AverageChange 200115,1015.1% 200215,7694.4% 200316,5755.1% 200417,4145.1% 200517,8912.7% 200619,2337.5% 200720,6227.2% 200820,278-1.7% Avg. change 4.4% YearFY Average Change FY0920,5201.2% FY1021,0772.7% FY1121,5322.2% FY1222,0252.3% FY1322,5232.3% FY1423,0072.1% Avg. change 2.1% Forecast: Actual: Historical Projected

20. 20 Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast Year2007 Forecast Approved 2008 ForecastDifference FY200922,62420,520-2,104 FY201023,76921,077-2,692 FY201124,98321,532-3,451 FY201226,18822,025-4,163 FY201327,39422,523-4,871 FY201423,007 Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

21. State-Responsible Population

22. 22 FY2008 State-Responsible (SR) Forecast Accuracy DOC Prison State- Responsible Total State- Responsible FY2008InmatesInmates in JailsPopulationForecastDifferencePercent Jul-0732,0805,89437,97438,039650.2% Aug-0732,4905,68738,17738,213360.1% Sep-0732,5285,73038,25838,3611030.3% Oct-0732,6125,81738,42938,506770.2% Nov-0732,6905,76838,45838,5971390.4% Dec-0732,9315,59638,52738,593660.2% Jan-0833,0005,48438,48438,6912070.5% Feb-0833,1855,45038,63538,7871520.4% Mar-0833,2765,53238,80838,9441360.4% Apr-0833,2305,59338,82339,0682450.6% May-0833,1575,70238,85939,1773180.8% Jun-0833,3575,46938,82639,3475211.3% Average1720.5% FY2008 Official Forecast Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 31, 2008) Note: Population data reflect end-of-month figures.

23. 23 08 Offenders in Jail Awaiting Trial* on Felony Charges * Data include offenders awaiting trial and those who have been sentenced for an offense but have additional charges pending. Source: Compensation Board (August 21, 2008) December 2007  The number of defendants in jail awaiting trial on felony charges peaked in September 2006.  While there is typically a drop in November/December each year, this population declined through April 2008 before it rose again.

24. 24 Note: Data for 1990 are based on fiscal year; 2000 and 2007 data reflect calendar year. Data for 2007 are preliminary. Average Length of Stay for State-Responsible Releases Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 22, 2008) Parole System No-Parole/Truth-in-Sentencing  Many offenders have received very lengthy sentences under the no-parole policy and remain incarcerated. These offenders are not included in the release data shown here.

25. 25 Impact of Truth-in-Sentencing on Prison Time Served Parole System Truth-in-Sentencing Robbery with Firearm Rape Prison Time Served: Parole System v. Truth-in-Sentencing (in years) 2.7 3.8 4.1 7.2 12.6 16.3 5.6 6.7 8.9 24 34.2 No Violent Prior Record Less Serious Violent Prior Record More Serious Violent Prior Record No Violent Prior Record Less Serious Violent Prior Record More Serious Violent Prior Record

26. 26 New Commitments to the Department of Corrections Year Probation Violators Committed to DOC Total New Commitments Probation Violators as Percent of New Commitments FY20024,79610,40746.1% FY20035,28211,12647.5% FY20045,31911,14247.7% FY20055,32611,25147.3% FY20066,21312,52349.6% FY20076,56913,21449.7% Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

27. Approved State-Responsible Forecast 2008 Forecast Historical Year June 30 Population Change 200939,4311.6% 201040,4812.7% 201141,4532.4% 201242,4472.4% 201343,4242.3% 201444,4222.3% Avg. growth 2.3% Forecast: 2007 Forecast Year June 30 Population Change 200132,3474.7% 200234,1715.6% 200335,3633.5% 200435,8791.5% 200535,9000.1% 200636,5791.9% 200738,0073.9% 200838,8262.2% Avg. growth 2.9% Actual:

28. 28 Approved State-Responsible Forecast Year 2007 Forecast Approved 2008 ForecastDifference 200940,30539,431-874 201041,29240,481-811 201142,39941,453-946 201243,55942,447-1,112 201344,74443,424-1,320 201444,422 Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 for each year.