1. Michael Löchl Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT) July 2005 Modelling businesses and employment: UrbanSim and its application in Zurich Workshop of Land Use Transportation (LUT) Modelling Group, London

2. Project Overview ETH Research Focus „The Future of Urbanized Landscapes“ is funded by ETH Zurich Swiss Federal Office for Spatial Development Involved people within project: Prof. Kay W. Axhausen (IVT, ETH Zurich) Prof. Willy Schmid (IRL, ETH Zurich) Michaela Bürgle (IRL/IVT, ETH Zurich) Michael Löchl (IVT, ETH Zurich) Urs Waldner (IRL, ETH Zurich) Prof. Paul Waddell (U. of Washington)

3. Project overview Stage 1 Applying UrbanSim in the Greater Zurich area Loosely coupled with transport models of Canton Zurich Stage 2 Adjustment/ expansion of model system –Introducing transport network with flows and volume –Introduce impacts of traffic noise and road pricing on location choice Analysing case studies

4. Simulation area Germany

5. Project Schedule 2005:Household survey in Greater Zurich area Model estimations First simulation runs for 1990 to 2000 for validation purposes 2006:Adjustment and development of new simulation modules Running case studies End of project: beginning of 2007

6. Data sources and estimations Employer counts per sector from national statistics both at - municipality level (90, 95/96, 98, 00/01) and - hectar raster level (95/96, 98, 00/01) Employer forecasts are available from Canton Zurich Simple disaggregation measures where needed Adjustments needed for small businesses (1-3 employees) based on their spatial distribution Overall input data quality can be judged as good Employment movement probabilities are required

7. Firmography in UrbanSim Early UrbanSim version tried to consider firmography, but failed Developers are aware of the problems => abstraction as solution Forecasts of sectoral employment has to be provided externaly Single jobs are considered as entities, sectors can be defined Employment losses are assumed to be proportional to spatial distribution of jobs in the sector Takeovers are not considered

8. Influence of endogenous variables on employment change in UrbanSim Location choice/ probability to locate elsewhere is determined by –Availability of space –Land price (Land price model) –Local agglomerations –Accessibility to population (accessibility model) –Travel time to CBD, airport (transport model) But job losses are assumed to be proportional to the spatial distribution of jobs in the sector

9. UrbanSim – Framework with regard to employment Model Coordinator Travel Model Accessibility Model Export Model Economic Transition Model Land Price Model Employment Mobility Model Employment Location Choice Model Real Estate Development Model Data Employment base year and forecasts (control totals) Input

10. Treatment of Location/ Relocation in UrbanSim Economic Transition Model calculates creation/loss of jobs Employment Mobility Model calculates which jobs have to be relocated Employment Location Model (re-)locates jobs by randomly selecting a predetermined amount of potential available spaces and decides by discrete choice model (MNL) where to locate Stock of available space is fixed in short-term Locators are price takers

11. Treatment of interaction between firms Only considered in location choice model by taking into account employment mix within a specific radius of potential location

12. URLs Zurich Project Homepage: http://www.nsl.ethz.ch/index.php/en/content/view/full/942 UrbanSim Homepage: http://www.urbansim.org