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The American pika Chris Ray, CU. Ochotona princeps Ochotona princeps...and... habitat specialists herbivorous highly territorial hay-stackers...and...

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Presentation on theme: "The American pika Chris Ray, CU. Ochotona princeps Ochotona princeps...and... habitat specialists herbivorous highly territorial hay-stackers...and..."— Presentation transcript:

1 the American pika Chris Ray, CU

2 Ochotona princeps Ochotona princeps...and... habitat specialists herbivorous highly territorial hay-stackers...and... habitat specialists herbivorous highly territorial hay-stackers chris.ray@colorado.edu pikas are... related to rabbits as big as your fist non-hibernating highly vocal pikas are... related to rabbits as big as your fist non-hibernating highly vocal

3 Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu

4 shanaweber@mac.com Summer heat-stress Grinnell 1917 MacArthur & Wang 1973, 1974 Smith 1974 Hafner 1993, 1994 Hafner & Sullivan 1995 Verts & Carraway 1998 Li et al. 2001 Simpson 2001 Beever et al. 2003, 2010 Summer heat-stress Grinnell 1917 MacArthur & Wang 1973, 1974 Smith 1974 Hafner 1993, 1994 Hafner & Sullivan 1995 Verts & Carraway 1998 Li et al. 2001 Simpson 2001 Beever et al. 2003, 2010 Winter cold-stress Tapper 1973 Smith 1978 Morrison and Hik 2007 Beever et al. 2010 & in prep. Winter cold-stress Tapper 1973 Smith 1978 Morrison and Hik 2007 Beever et al. 2010 & in prep. chris.ray@colorado.edu

5 Shrinking distribution of the American pika chris.ray@colorado.edu

6 25 historical populations recorded 1898-1990 (average date = 1933) 6 extinct by 1999 (►) 10 by 2008 (◄) Extinction rate is rising 25 historical populations recorded 1898-1990 (average date = 1933) 6 extinct by 1999 (►) 10 by 2008 (◄) Extinction rate is rising chris.ray@colorado.edu

7 1999: 2,474 m 2008: 2,566 m 1933: 2,374 m >1 m/yr >10 m/yr Rising mean minimum elevation of 25 historical pika populations in the Great Basin Rising mean minimum elevation of 25 historical pika populations in the Great Basin chris.ray@colorado.edu Similar patterns in the Sierra Nevada (Moritz 2007) Similar patterns in the Sierra Nevada (Moritz 2007)

8 Habitat size/structure Human impacts Species interactions Thermal stress Habitat size/structure Human impacts Species interactions Thermal stress chris.ray@colorado.edu What predicts extinction? Beever et al. in press: Habitat area Accessibility Livestock grazing Acute heat-stress Chronic heat-stress Acute cold-stress Climatic refugium Beever et al. in press: Habitat area Accessibility Livestock grazing Acute heat-stress Chronic heat-stress Acute cold-stress Climatic refugium

9 chris.ray@colorado.edu Defining local extinction Persisting Transitional but persisting 200 m Extinct 3 km N = 11 N = 10 N = 4

10 “Habitat area” – amount within 0.8 km, or entire mtn range chris.ray@colorado.edu Candidate predictors of extinction: “Refuge” – elevation of highest habitat within 3 km 3 km

11 chris.ray@colorado.edu Candidate predictors of extinction (continued): “Accessibility” – distance to nearest non-4WD road “Grazing” – long-term use of the site by livestock “Acute heat stress” – number of days above 28°C/82°F “Chronic heat stress” – average summer temperature “Acute cold stress” – number of days below -10°C/14°F

12 Hourly haypile temperatures Joyce Gellhorn Temperature (C) Date (Month-Year)

13 3 stress metricsData usedHindcasts Acute heat-stress# days > 28 °C Σ >28, Δ >28, τ >28 Chronic heat-stressSummer mean T Σ μS, Δ μS, τ μS Acute cold-stress# days < -10* °C Σ <-10, Δ <-10, τ <-10 Hindcasting metrics of stress 3 data sets: Σ = long-term, Δ = climate change, τ = recent Study site T (°C) 1945197519852005195519651995

14 What predicts extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Cold days (last 60 yrs) Cold days (last 60 yrs) Refuge (upslope habitat) Refuge (upslope habitat) Habitat area (w/in 0.8 km) Habitat area (w/in 0.8 km) Hot summer (recent mean) Hot summer (recent mean) Habitat area (w/in range) Habitat area (w/in range) Grazing Given the many factors that may be responsible for pika extinctions, perhaps the only reason our list of predictors looks like this is because we haven’t yet had the opportunity to consider other (perhaps better) predictors, and data from other regions.

15 Erb, Ray & Guralnick study, in prep. Of 69 historically occupied sites in the southern Rockies, only 4 are no longer occupied The 4 local extinctions are explained by moisture issues: pikas are missing only from the driest sites

16 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu

17 Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu

18 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu

19 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu

20 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu

21 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu

22 Gallatin Range Demographic Study Montana Ray 1989-2009 chris.ray@colorado.edu

23 Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas Outline Motivation for an individual-based study of climatic stressors Preliminary results from a long-term study in Montana Preliminary results from a comparative study of MT & CO pikas chris.ray@colorado.edu

24 Bob Rapp Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009

25 Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009

26 Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009

27 Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009

28 Stress and survival study Gallatin Range, MT & Niwot Ridge, CO Ray et al., 2008-2009

29 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu ? ? ? ? ? ?

30 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Summer heat-stress Heat avoidance behavior Reduced foraging activity Smaller or inferior haypiles Winter cold-stress

31 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Summer heat-stress Heat avoidance behavior Reduced foraging activity Smaller or inferior haypiles Winter cold-stress Smaller or inferior haypiles

32 Pika chris.ray@colorado.edu Haypile

33 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Community interactions

34 shana.weber@mac.com

35 Morning Late morning Noon Afternoon Automated camera at a marmot den Automated camera at a marmot den

36 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Predation

37 chris.ray@colorado.edu

38 How might climate cause extinction? chris.ray@colorado.edu Disease

39 What does the future hold? chris.ray@colorado.edu Manuscript in review, by Scott Loarie et al.* models local extinction probability according to climate for 97 resurveyed pika sites *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark Mean annual temperature Decade (20 th century) I. Sierra II. Cascade III. Great Basin IV. Rocky Mtns

40 What does the future hold? chris.ray@colorado.edu Manuscript in review, by Scott Loarie et al.* models local extinction probability according to climate for 97 resurveyed pika sites *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark Mean annual temperature Decade (20 th century) I. Sierra II. Cascade III. Great Basin IV. Rocky Mtns Mean annual temperature Projected Observed Mid-high emission scenarios Lower emission scenarios Moderate emission scenarios

41 Over 50% extinct by 2100? chris.ray@colorado.edu Probability of local extinction *S. Loarie, C. Field, C. Ray, E. Beever, P. Duffy, K. Hayhoe, J. Wilkening and J. Clark Predictions were conservative for the Great Basin

42 The End chris.ray@colorado.edu

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