1. The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006 Final Class Presentation Instructors: Robert Lang, Virginia Tech John Hall, ASU

2. What’s in This Talk?  Review of Megapolitan Area Geography  Arizona Sun Corridor Geography  The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms  Central Class Findings  What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the Sun Corridor Project

3. Arizona Republic March 2006 Megas In the News

4. The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged

5. Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

6. Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

7. 2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy TypesDescriptionExamples Metropolitan Current definition of the Census Bureau Pittsburgh, Boise Metroplex Two or more metropolitan areas that share overlapping suburbs but the main principal cities do not touch Dallas/Ft. Worth, Washington/ Baltimore Corridor Megapolitan Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 75 and 150 miles apart that form an extended linear urban area along an Interstate Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson), SanSac (San Francisco/ Sacramento) Galactic Megapolitan Three or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities over 150 miles apart that form an urban web over a broad area that is laced with Interstates Piedmont, Great Lakes Crescent Megaplex Two megapolitan areas that are proximate and occupy common cultural and physical environments and maintain dense business linkages Megalopolis and Great Lakes Crescent, Sun Corridor and SoCal

8. Evolving 20 th Century Metropolitan Form

9. 21 st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

10. Urban Realms

11. Arizona Sun Corridor

12. Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms TypesDescriptionRealms Urban Core Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out. Central Valley Tucson Valley Favored Quarter The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space. Northeast Valley Foothills Maturing Suburbs Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges. East Valley West Valley Emerging Exurbs The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing. Mid Corridor Northwest Valley Santa Cruz Valley San Pedro Valley

13. Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

15. Housing and Equity

16. Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms  Housing Market Values by Realm  Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm  Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm  Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson Housing Markets – Simultaneity?  Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson Housing Markets  Changing demographics will change the form of housing.

17. The Sun Corridor: 10-20 % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live? Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

18. The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

19. “The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967 Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

20. Estimated Median Market Value Source: www.zillow.com

21. Housing Appreciation Source: www.zillow.com

22. The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation Percent Change in House Prices with MSA Rankings (4 th Quarter 2005 House Price Index) (Period Ended December 31, 2005) MSARanking1 Yr.Qtr.5 Yr. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale1 39.6 77.7793.02 Prescott5 31.8 96.9386.72 Tucson15 30.0 27.0081.93 Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06

23. Housing Burden Source: www.dataplace.org

24. Overcrowded Housing Source: www.dataplace.org

25. Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

26. Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

27. Phoenix and Tucson Comparison Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

28. The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic  Median age of White population in Arizona: 40  Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.  Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market. –Inclusion of elderly family members in household. –Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority –‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive –Less resistance to attached housing  The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor. Golf Links to Social Links:

29. Education

30. Education in the Sun Corridor  How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

31. “Living on the Kindness of Strangers” Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

32. English Language Learners (ELL)  Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)  Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

33. Higher Education in the Sun Corridor  In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona- tied for 97th)  Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A  Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

34. Community Colleges  Sun Corridor is a national leader  The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)  Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

35. Leading Realms in Higher Education State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses Other Educational Institutions of Note Central ValleyASU West, ASU Downtown Center Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management East ValleyMain Campus ASU ASU East Several community colleges Tucson ValleyUniversity of ArizonaPima Community College

36. Exurban Realms State Universities- Main or Branch campuses Other Institutions of Note Northwest ValleyNonePrescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Santa Cruz ValleyNone San Pedro ValleyNoneCochise College

37. Very Underserved Realms State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses Other Institutions of Note West ValleyNoneOne community college Northeast ValleyNoneOne community college Mid-CorridorNoneOne community college FoothillsNone

38. Economy

39. Topics  Composition of the Economy  Realm Share of Development  Employment Centers

40. Economic Composition  Leading Industries –Construction/Real Estate –Consumer Services  Secondary Industries –Aerospace –Producer Services F.I.RE Law, Marketing –High-Tech/Bio –Military –Entrepreneurial  Opportunities –Baby Boomer Bio –Western Product Gateway –Next Generation Infrastructure

41. Market Share

42. Inventory – Office Development Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

43. Inventory – Industrial Development Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

44. Inventory – Retail Development Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

45. Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges

46. Employment Centers

47. Economic Development in the Realms  Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs –Assets Prescott Airport –Opportunities Anthem Lake Pleasant –Challenges Connectivity to Phoenix Transportation Corridors  West Valley: The Sleeping Giant –Assets Available Land Mass Airports –Opportunities Future freeway corridors (303, 801) Building [sub]urban core from scratch –Challenges Getting someone to test the water

48. Economic Development in the Realms  Central Valley: Employment Center –Assets Downtown Phoenix Sky Harbor I-10 Distribution Corridor –Opportunities Redevelopment Stadium/Arena –Challenges Aging Infrastructure Suburban Flight Residential Composition  Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel –Assets Camelback Corridor Scottsdale Airpark Deer Valley Airport –Opportunities Old Towne Redevelopment Palisene –Challenges Affordability Infill Opportunity

49. Economic Development in the Realms  East Valley: Young & Emerging –Assets ASU Chandler/Price Corridor Mesa Airports –Opportunities SanTan Corridor Original Core Redevelopment –Challenges Available Land  Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs –Assets Phoenix Regional Airport 1-10 and I-8 –Opportunities Land, Land, Land Intermodel Hub of Region –Challenges Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

50. Economic Development in the Realms  Foothills: Uptown –Assets Wealth Resorts –Opportunities Oro Valley corridor Marana –Challenges Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor  Tucson Valley: Downtown –Assets UofA Downtown Tucson –Opportunities Employment Center serving all 4 Tucson realms –Challenges Transportation

51. Economic Development in the Realms  Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway –Assets I-19 –Opportunities Transition center between Mexico/US I-19 connection to/from Mexico –Challenges Connectivity to other realms  San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged –Assets Fort Huachuca –Opportunities Transition center between Mexico/US I-10 connection to El Paso –Challenges Connectivity to other realms

52. Infrastructure

53. Population Growth=More Congestion Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region (in millions of miles)

54. Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

55. Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

56. CANAMEX

57. Housing Units 2010 Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north

58. Airports follow the people … 2010

59.  PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations  TUC:4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations Northern tier’s realms dominate Sun Corridor aviation

60. Housing Units 2010 Housing Units 2050 Pop. balance shifts south

61. 2050 ? Where will the next PHX be?

62.  Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model –Less complex, for passengers, industry –Better control of environmental issues –Requires authority  Los Angeles = reliever system –Redundancy –Complex airspace, connection, access –Shares economic burden, boom  Recent trends  PHX = LAX Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?

63.  MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it  Lack of connection between north, south, Mid  Increasing population pressure from Mid  Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid And will rail be included?

64.  Freeways/Highways: –Congestion—Central Corridor –Tucson must build highways –Need for increased planning between realms –Revenue challenge  Aviation –Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style –Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor –Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort In and Out of the Sun Corridor

65. Environment and Open Space

66. Active Management Areas

67. AMA Annual Use

68. Sun Corridor: Water

69. Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure Salt River Project watershed

70. Central Arizona Project

71. Groundwater *The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and Foothills realms have no pumping stations

72. Air Quality 2004 Annual Daily Average

73. Open Space

74.  Environmental Impact  Economic Impact  Preservation of significant areas  Quality of Life

75. Effective Open Space Conservation  Local political and constituent support  Strong state enabling legislation  Healthy local economy  Community’s public financing capacity –Borrowing history –Bonding capacity –Degree of fiscal power and authority –Tax base

76. Open Space and the Realms

77. What Future?

78. Conclusions

79. General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications  The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley  The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips  Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development  Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy  But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

80. Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications  Core Realms –Infill and Redevelopment  Favored Quarter Realms –Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing  Maturing Suburbs Realms –Create Mixed Use Centers  Emerging Exurban Realms –Open Space Preservation

81. Next Steps  June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference  Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report