1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Arizona 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Arizona, and what the complete “State of the Church in Arizona” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Arizona that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAZ20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Arizona Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forward or Backwards in Influence in Arizona?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Arizona will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Arizona has an attendance percentage (14.3%) that is much lower than the average for the nation (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Arizona.

8. 8.1% La Paz 8.4% Navajo 8.6% Mohave 12.3% Coconino 12.4% Pinal 13.5% Yavapai 13.5% Apache 13.7% Graham 13.8% Yuma 14.7% Maricopa 14.8% Gila 15.6% Cochise 16.2% Pima 21.7% Santa Cruz 24.3% Greenlee 0.0% to 13.5% 13.5% to 14.8% 14.8% to 25.3% Arizona Counties Percentage of Population in 2000 at Christian churches on any Given Weekend Beige = High Rose = Medium Blue = Low

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Arizona. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. Arizona Counties Population 8,547 Greenlee 19,715 La Paz 33,489 Graham 38,381 Santa Cruz 51,335 Gila 69,423 Apache 97,470 Navajo 116,320 Coconino 117,755 Cochise 155,032 Mohave 160,026 Yuma 167,517 Yavapai 179,727 Pinal 843,746 Pima 3,072,149 Maricopa 0 to 69,423 69,423 to 160,026 160,026 to 3,072,150

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Arizona in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the grow of decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use15

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Arizona in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the strong growth of Evangelical and Catholic churches and the slight growth Mainline churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has remained quite stable, the population has grown dramatically. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Arizona in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the percentage decline of all three groups.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Arizona. The Pie Chart shows Catholics are the predominate group in Arizona. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of the Pentecostals.

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. This shows how many people live in this state for every Christian church. Among states in 2000, Arkansas is the lowest at 411 people per church, while Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arizona in 2000.

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. Arizona Counties Percentage of Population in 2000 at Catholic churches on any Given Weekend Beige = High Rose = Medium Blue = Low 2.3% La Paz 2.3% Navajo 2.8% Mohave 3.1% Yavapai 3.6% Coconino 4.4% Gila 5.0% Maricopa 5.3% Pinal 6.5% Cochise 7.0% Yuma 8.0% Pima 8.6% Apache 9.5% Graham 17.3% Greenlee 17.4% Santa Cruz 0.0% to 4.4% 4.4% to 8.0% 8.0% to 18.4%

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 4 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 11 counties declined.

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Arizona between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 4 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 11 counties declined. For mainline churches, 1 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 14 counties declined. For Catholics, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 10 counties declined.

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. -81.8% La Paz -68.4% Gila -48.7% Coconino -36.8% Mohave -34.4% Cochise -33.2% Pinal -25.0% Yavapai -13.5% Pima -2.4% Maricopa -0.5% Navajo 12.8% Graham 17.1% Santa Cruz 21.7% Yuma 61.0% Greenlee 151.8% Apache Decline Growth Arizona Counties Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population at Catholic churches from 1990 - 2000 Rose = Growth Blue = Decline

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Arizona in the past decade. There was a net gain of 220 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in Arizona, there would have needed to have been an additional 842 more churches started from 1990 - 2000.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The State of the Church in Arizona... Because of strong population growth in Arizona, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges. While church attendance has grown for all three groups, the percentage of the population attending church has been declining because of the strong population growth of Arizona. This resulted in a 12.5% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Arizona. If the present decade is to rectify that state-wide, 842 more churches would need to be started in the state than in the previous decade.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Arizona Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAR20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UAR20.htm The Complete Phoenix Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Phoenix.htm The Complete Tucson Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Tucson.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Arizona, Phoenix and Tucson Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/AZ0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/AZ0.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.