1. Law of Nationbuilding Joel Roberson Fall 2006 TOPIC: TOPIC: Viable Alternatives to Build a Stable Government in the Iraqi Political Environment

2. BASIC PAPER OUTLINE Four Major Points… Political Landscape in Iraq: Develop a historically accurate description of the Iraqi political system Political Landscape in Iraq: Develop a historically accurate description of the Iraqi political system US Political Invention: Measure the progress of the first three years of US military and civilian rebuilding of Iraq US Political Invention: Measure the progress of the first three years of US military and civilian rebuilding of Iraq Factors Hindering Democracy: Evaluate the effect religion and other countries have on Iraqi development Factors Hindering Democracy: Evaluate the effect religion and other countries have on Iraqi development Alternative Political Solutions: Propose alternative political schemes and evaluate their likely success Alternative Political Solutions: Propose alternative political schemes and evaluate their likely success

3. PROPOSED ALTERNATIVES Stay the Course Stay the Course Immediate Withdrawal Immediate Withdrawal Phased Withdrawal Phased Withdrawal Increased Troop Levels Increased Troop Levels Internationalize the Nationbuilding Internationalize the Nationbuilding Three-State Solution Three-State Solution

4. Stay the Course Proposal: Continue reconstruction and troop training programs; encourage Iraqis to step up. Proposal: Continue reconstruction and troop training programs; encourage Iraqis to step up. President George W. Bush: “As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down” 11/19/05, Address to Troops in South Korea President George W. Bush: “As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down” 11/19/05, Address to Troops in South Korea

5. Immediate Withdrawal Proposal: Pull US troops out of Iraq as soon as possible; Turn nationbuilding over to the Iraqis Proposal: Pull US troops out of Iraq as soon as possible; Turn nationbuilding over to the Iraqis Rep. John Murtha: “[W]e have become a catalyst for violence... It's time to bring them home.“ 11/17/05, Press Conference Rep. John Murtha: “[W]e have become a catalyst for violence... It's time to bring them home.“ 11/17/05, Press Conference

6. Phased Withdrawal Proposal: Withdrawal troops over a scheduled timetable and strategically realign them throughout the world Proposal: Withdrawal troops over a scheduled timetable and strategically realign them throughout the world Sen. Carl Levin: “[W]e should pressure the White House to commence the phased redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq in four to six months…make it clear to the Iraqis that our presence is not open-ended and that they must take and make the necessary political compromises to preserve Iraq as a nation.” 11/14/06, CNN Sen. Carl Levin: “[W]e should pressure the White House to commence the phased redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq in four to six months…make it clear to the Iraqis that our presence is not open-ended and that they must take and make the necessary political compromises to preserve Iraq as a nation.” 11/14/06, CNN

7. Increased Troop Presence Proposal: Increase troop levels to provide the manpower to create a stable government Proposal: Increase troop levels to provide the manpower to create a stable government Sen. John McCain: “The simple truth is that we do not have sufficient forces in Iraq to meet our military objectives.” 11/6/03, USA Today Sen. John McCain: “The simple truth is that we do not have sufficient forces in Iraq to meet our military objectives.” 11/6/03, USA Today

8. Internationalize the Effort Proposal: Turn Iraq reconstruction over to an international force that has experience in political infrastructure creation Proposal: Turn Iraq reconstruction over to an international force that has experience in political infrastructure creation John Kerry: “[W]e have to truly internationalize both politically and militarily: we cannot depend on a US-only presence.” 4/30/04, Remarks to Westminister College John Kerry: “[W]e have to truly internationalize both politically and militarily: we cannot depend on a US-only presence.” 4/30/04, Remarks to Westminister College

9. Three State Solution Proposal: Divide Iraq into: 1) three separate nation- states, or 2) three states with a weak central government Proposal: Divide Iraq into: 1) three separate nation- states, or 2) three states with a weak central government Peter Galbraith: “The most realistic option is for the U.S. to abandon the idea of creating a new, united Iraq and instead allow the country to break apart, enabling each of the country's three groups to choose its own government and provide for its own security. 11/5/06, Time Magazine Peter Galbraith: “The most realistic option is for the U.S. to abandon the idea of creating a new, united Iraq and instead allow the country to break apart, enabling each of the country's three groups to choose its own government and provide for its own security. 11/5/06, Time Magazine Sen. Joe Biden: “[M]aintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group…room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests” 5/1/06, New York Times Sen. Joe Biden: “[M]aintain a united Iraq by decentralizing it, giving each ethno-religious group…room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests” 5/1/06, New York Times