1. Can Vermont Afford to Grow Old? Prepared for Conference on Shaping America’s Fiscal Future Art Woolf August 19, 2010

2. Current Economic Situation In Vermont Unemployment rose from 4.0% to 7.3%; now at 6.0% Unemployment rose from 4.0% to 7.3%; now at 6.0% 14,000 jobs lost (4% of Total) 14,000 jobs lost (4% of Total) General Fund tax revenues fell $100m FY07 – FY10 General Fund tax revenues fell $100m FY07 – FY10 Federal stimulus money to Vermont = $460m FY09-FY11 Federal stimulus money to Vermont = $460m FY09-FY11

3. A Grim Picture

4. A Future That Won’t Happen Trend Line

6. Components of VT Population Change Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. VT Working Age Population (21-64) Source: Census, author estimates

8. Vermont Over 65 Population Will Soon Skyrocket

9. Vermont’s Demographic Future

10. A Recipe That Doesn’t Work + Slower Growth in Tax Revenues + Historical Growth in Education Spending Per Student + Historical Growth in Per Capita Social Services Spending = Expenditures Outpace Revenues