1. Trends in Industry and Occupational Data Workforce Development Council Nov 2012 Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor Economic & Labor Market Information Chief Labor Market Information online at VTLMI.info

2. Who/What is ‘LMI’? The Economic & Labor Market Information Division ~ housed in the Vermont Department of Labor ~ affectionately referred to as LMI ~ state partner to the federal government = 100% federally funded Purpose: - to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, etc… Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

3. LMI Data Series & the Valued Input from Employers Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Required Current Employment Statistics – monthly panel survey Occupation Employment Study – 3 year managed panel survey of employers; Required Other Studies - Fringe Benefits, Vacancy, Skills Assessment, Industry Focus, etc… OPTIONAL Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

4. Presentation Outline PART I ~ Status of the Vermont Economy –Where we are at in the recovery PART II ~ Occupational Projections 2010-2020 –National Industry Data & Trends –Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

5. PART I Status of the Vermont Economy –Where we are at in the recovery

6. National Recession Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

7. Last 3 Vermont Recessions Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

9. Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January 2011 -Vermont doesn’t run as ‘hot’ during up-swings -Private sector leading the recovery Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info *Total Gov’t includes public education

10. Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January 2011 VT showing strong growth in two sectors: -Professional, Scientific & Technical --- still room to grow vs. national concentration of total private (6% in VT vs. 7% in US) -Private Education ~ riding a winning horse; to what end? Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

11. Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT -Approximately 3,000 establishments in VT classified in NAICS 541 -over 13,500 employment opportunities -Average wage across the sector of nearly $65k Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

12. Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

13. More on NAICS 541 Specialized Design includes: - Interior, Industrial, and Graphic Design Services Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting includes: - Admin, General Management, HR, Marketing, Logistics, Environmental Consulting Services Scientific Research & Development includes: - Biotechnology, Engineering, Life Science, Social Science & Humanities R&D services Advertising & Public Relations also includes: - Media Buying and Advertising Material Distribution Other includes: - Marketing Research, Public Opinion Polling, Photographic, Veterinary Services Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

14. Part I: Conclusions -The economic recovery = slow and uneven -Potential Risks: US ‘fiscal cliff’, international financial crises, threats of military conflicts, etc. -Vermont is faring better than the nation -Professional, Scientific & Technical Services work can be done from anywhere in the world -Requires talented workforce and adequate technology/infrastructure Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

15. PART II Occupational Projections 2010-2020 –National Industry Data & Trends –Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

16. Education and training and projections For both career exploration and policy decisions, users want to know:  What is the demand for workers with a college degree (or some other level of education)?  What training or experience is needed in different careers, in addition to formal education? 16

17. New education and training classification 17 Three categories of information for each occupation:  Typical education needed for entry  Work experience in a related occupation  Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation ■ The categories make up a typical path to entry and competency

18. Educational attainment by occupation 18 Occupation Percent distribution of workers 25 years and older by educational attainment, by detailed occupation, 2009 Less than high school diploma High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Doctoral or professional degree Architectural and engineering managers0.63.97.25.246.237.14.8 Lawyers0.1 0.0 0.82.596.5 Paralegals and legal Assistants0.912.825.719.234.44.52.6 Career/technical education teachers, middle school0.2 2.92.046.944.93.0 Waiters and waitresses16.635.526.77.012.51.40.4 Speech language pathologists0.20.4 0.68.687.22.7 Electricians8.739.731.413.05.90.80.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005-2009 5-year file.

19. Education and training classification Occupation BLS education and training assignments Typical entry-level education Work experience in a related occupation Typical OJT needed to attain competency Architectural and engineering managers Bachelor’s degree More than 5 yearsNone Lawyers Doctoral or professional degreeNone Paralegals and legal assistants Associate's degreeNone Career/technical education teachers, middle school Bachelor’s degree1-5 years Internship /residency Waiters and waitresses Less than high school diplomaNone Short-term OJT Speech language pathologists Master’s degreeNone Electricians High school diplomaNone Apprentice- ship 19

20. National: % change in employment by typical entry-level education category 20 Percent change, projected 2010-20 Average, all occupations = 14.3%

21. National: % change in employment by typical on-the-job training category 21 Percent change, projected 2010-20 Average, all occupations = 14.3%

22. National: % growth in employment for selected paths 22 Percent change, projected 2010-20 Education, work experience, OJT

23. National: % Change in Employment by Industry: 2006-10 23 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= -1.2% 2006 Data: BLS Current Employment Statistics

24. National Employment by Industry: 2010 24 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Service providing Goods producing

25. National % Change in Employment by Industry: Projected 2010-20 25 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%

26. National Employment Change by Industry 26 Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

27. National Employment Change by Industry 27 Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

28. Nat’l Construction Wage & Salary Employment 28 Millions of jobs

29. Nat’l Manufacturing Wage & Salary Employment 29 Millions of jobs

30. Vermont’s 2010-2020 Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

31. Vermont’s 2010-2020 Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

32. Vermont’s 2010-2020 Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

33. Vermont’s 2010-2020 Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

34. Part II: National Conclusions Industries Leading the Way: - Health Care - Personal Care & Social Assistance - Professional & Business Services - Construction - not regaining all it has lost By education category – fastest growth found in Master’s degree (21.7%) By training category – fastest growth found in apprenticeship is the typical on the job training (22.5%) Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

35. Part II: Nat’l Conclusions (cont.) -In 4 out of 5 occupations, openings due to replacement needs exceed the number due to growth. Replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those that are declining. -Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the fastest employment growth, 17 typically need some type of postsecondary education for entry into the occupation. -More than two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not need postsecondary education for entry Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

36. Part II: Conclusions (cont.) National trends – low population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates - “Baby-boomers” now entirely in the “55+” age cohort; increasing group’s share of labor force from ~20% to ~25% in 2020 Vermont – no population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates (still higher than national average) Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

37. Presentation Summary -There are lots of opportunities in the Vermont economy for workers of all educational backgrounds -However, more skills leads to more wages -VTLMI.info has a wealth of free information -More information leads to better decisions Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

38. Questions? Thank you! Contact Information: Mathew J. Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor 5 Green Mountain Dr. Montpelier, VT 05601-0488 Phone- (802)-828-4153 Mathew.Barewicz@state.vt.us Website: www.vtlmi.info