1. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 What Kind of Recovery? Vermont’s Economy in 2010 By Richard Heaps

2. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 The Vermont Economy Today The economy hit bottom in late 2009 The economy hit bottom in late 2009 The recession has ended and the recovery is starting to take hold The recession has ended and the recovery is starting to take hold What is a recovery What is a recovery Labor markets are near bottom Labor markets are near bottom

3. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Spending on Taxable Retail Goods

4. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Spending on Meals & Rooms

5. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Sales of Vermont Homes

6. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Prices of Vermont Homes

7. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Incomes of Vermonters

8. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Vermont Job Growth: 2005-09

9. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09 Sectors Job Change All-13,700 Private sector -12,900 Public sector -800

10. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Job Changes: Jan 08 to Nov 09 Industry Job Change Health care & social assistance +3,700 Retail-3,400 Manufacturing-5,200 Leisure & hospitality -2,400 Prof. & business services -1,900 Construction-3,700

11. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Unemployment Up in 2009

12. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Job Losses Across Vermont (Q2 08 to Q2 09) Region Jobs Lost % Lost Southern-5,541-6.0% Northwest-3,658-2.9% Northeast-1,007-4.3% Central-1,804-3.5% All Vermont -11,328-3.7%

13. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 How Bad is this Recession?

14. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 2010: The Start of the Economic Recovery How a recovery develops How a recovery develops When will it start? When will it start? Why measure by job growth? Why measure by job growth?

15. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Path of this Recovery

16. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Where Will the New Jobs Be? From 2010 to 2012, about a 3% gain or 8,000 jobs From 2010 to 2012, about a 3% gain or 8,000 jobs Nearly all in the private sector Nearly all in the private sector All sectors participate in the recovery All sectors participate in the recovery Health care leads – one-third of all new jobs Health care leads – one-third of all new jobs

17. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 VT Unemployment Rate Vermont’s economy will look better measured by the unemployment rate Vermont’s economy will look better measured by the unemployment rate It is 6.4% now? It is 6.4% now? Rises to 7.0% for 2010 Rises to 7.0% for 2010 Falls to 6.2% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012 Falls to 6.2% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012

18. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Vermont Real Family Incomes 2008 and 2009 were -2.7% & -2.5% 2008 and 2009 were -2.7% & -2.5% 2010 – just a 0.5% gain 2010 – just a 0.5% gain 2011 – back to normal +2% to +3% 2011 – back to normal +2% to +3%

19. The Vermont Economy Newsletter - January 8, 2010 Housing Recovers What is recovery? What is recovery? Existing home sales up 30% in 2010 to 11,000 units --- then flat Existing home sales up 30% in 2010 to 11,000 units --- then flat Prices fall another 5% in 2010 --- then flat Prices fall another 5% in 2010 --- then flat New permits modestly grow in 2010, then up 20% in 2011 and 30% in 2012 New permits modestly grow in 2010, then up 20% in 2011 and 30% in 2012