1. MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS Wout Ultee Radboud University Nijmegen Presentation at the Observatoire Sociologique du Changement, Sciences-Po, Paris June 15 2007

2. WHAT ?! SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS ?! THE UMPTEENTH TECHNIQUE OF DATA ANALYSIS ?! YES, BUT A TECHNIQUE TO ANSWER QUESTIONS WHICH ARE BETTER THAN QUESTIONS OF OLDER GENERATIONS

3. A SUCCESSION OF FOUR TECHNIQUES OF DATA ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL MOBILITY RESEARCH : LIPSET GENERATIONPERCENTAGES DUNCAN GENERATIONPATH MODELS GOLDTHORPE GENERATIONLOGLINEAR MODELS MAYER GENERATIONEVENT HISTORY MODELS THESE TECHNIQUES ARE APPLICABLE IN HETEROGAMY RESEARCH TOO

4. QUESTIONS OF THE LIPSET GENERATION : * IF A PERSON HAS MORE EDUCATION THAN ANOTHER PERSON, IS THIS PERSON MORE LIKELY TO MOVE UP ? * IF PERSONS HAVE MORE EDUCATION THAN THEIR PARENTS, ARE THEY MORE LIKELY TO BE UPWARDLY MOBILE ? * HOW MUCH OF TOTAL MOBILITY IS STRUCTURAL MOBILITY AND HOW MUCH CIRCULATION MOBILITY ? ACCORDING TO LATER GENERATIONS, THESE QUESTIONS ARE POOR OR MEANINGLESS

5. STYLIZED LIPSET GENERATION FACTS : FOR RAMDOM SAMPLES TAKEN FROM A COUNTRY’S POPULATION THE CORRELATION OF EDUCATION WITH UPWARD AND DOWNWARD MOBILITY IS DISAPPOINTINGLY LOW AND SO IS THE CORRELATION OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S YEARS OF EDUCATION WITH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE

6. DUNCAN GENERATION : QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY AS ONE VARIABLE AND ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES IN GENERAL POSE THE ISSUE POORLY THESE QUESTIONS UNWITTINGLY INVOLVE FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS AND THEREFORE REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN IS BEING ‘DISCOVERED’ QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT DIFFERENCE SCORES BUT ABOUT THEIR COMPONENTS

7. THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION : TO WHAT EXTENT DOES A PERSON’S OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE DEPEND NOT ONLY UPON THIS PERSON’S EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION AND OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE OF THIS PERSON’S FATHER ? TECHNIQUE TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS : PATH MODELS

8. GOLDTHORPE GENERATION : IF THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN STRUCTURAL AND CIRCULATION MOBILITY HAS ANY MEANING, IT HAS SO AT THE MACRO LEVEL ONLY NO SOUND ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN FOUND TO GIVE MEANING TO THE EQUATION TOTAL MOBILITY = STRUCTURAL MOBILITY + CIRCULATION MOBILITY

9. THE RIGHT QUESTIONS ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION : HOW HIGH ARE ABSOLUTE MOBILITY RATES ? HOW HIGH ARE RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES ? HOW STRONG IS SOCIAL FLUIDITY AND HOW UNEQUAL ARE COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ? HOW LARGE ARE MARGINAL DIFFERENCES ? HOW UNBALANCED IS THE COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE ? AND TO WHAT EXTENT ARE COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN ABSOLUTE MOBILITY EXPLAINED BY DIFFERENCES IN RELATIVE MOBILITY CHANCES COMPARED WITH DIFFERENCES IN COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES ?

10. THE RIGHT EQUATION ACCORDING TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION : COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES PLUS COMPETITIVE STRUCTURES RESULT IN ABSOLUTE MOBILITY QUESTIONS ABOUT COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ARE ANSWERED BY LOGLINEAR MODELS

11. MAYER GENERATION : QUESTIONS LIKE HOW MUCH SOCIAL FLUIDITY IS THERE IN THE U.K. IN 1972 ? ARE TOO VAGUE FLUIDITY REFERS TO THE MOVEMENT OF PERSONS BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME THIS SHOWS THAT THE REFERENCE TO 1972 IS INCOMPLETE

12. MAYER GENERATION : QUESTIONS LIKE IS THERE MORE SOCIAL FLUIDITY IN THE U.K. IN 2000 THAN IN 1980 ? ARE ALMOST SUPERFLUOUS QUESTIONS SHOULD NOT BE ABOUT OVERLAPPING POPULATIONS BUT ABOUT SUCCESSIVE COHORTS

13. THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE MAYER GENERATION : ARE FOR SUCCESSIVE COHORTS THE CHANCES FOR MOVING UP OR DOWN IN SOME ALWAYS EQUALLY LONG TIME SPAN NOT ONLY DEPENDENT UPON INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE AGE AND EDUCATION BUT ALSO UPON COHORT AND PERIOD CHARACTERISTICS ? THESE QUESTIONS ARE TO BE ANSWERED WITH EVENT HISTORY MODELS

14. IN THE BEGINNING : THE APPLICATION OF MODELS THAT DID NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTEXTUAL NATURE OF PART OF THE ORGINALLY INDIVIDUAL DATA CONTEXTUAL : THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT THE MOMENT OF A POSSIBLE JOB SHIFT CONTEXTUAL : JOB STRUCTURE AT THE END OF COMPULSORY SCHOOLING NOWADAYS : APPLY MULTI-LEVEL EVENT HISTORY MODELS

15. ARE MAYER GENERATION QUESTIONS FLAWLESS ? MAYER QUESTIONS EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES ! IT IS TRUE THAT IF THE START SCORE FOR OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE IS INCLUDED AS A PREDICTOR IN EVENT HISTORY MODELS, ESTIMATES OF PARAMETERS FOR OTHER EFFECTS DO NOT DIFFER FROM THOSE MODELLING END SCORES BUT STILL, WHY EXPLAIN DIFFERENCE SCORES RATHER THAN END SCORES ?

16. FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS ? THE MAYER GENERATION COLLECTED OCCUPATIONAL HISTORIES, BUT MODELLED SINGLE EVENTS FIFTH GENERATION QUESTIONS SHOULD BE ABOUT CAREERS IS AN OCCUPATIONAL CAREER A SELF- REINFORCING UPWARD PROCESS ? WILL A PERSON WHO ONCE MOVED DOWN BE PERMANENTLY SCARRED ? MERTON’S MATTHEW EFFECTS GO BEYOND BECK, RISK SOCIETY, BAUMAN, LIFE IN FRAGMENTS, SENNETT’S BOOKS

18. MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE NOT ABOUT MOBILITY BUT ABOUT CONDITIONS THAT CAUSE PERSONS TO ATTAIN HIGHER AND LOWER CLASSES OR BETTER AND WORSE JOBS

19. HOW ABOUT QUESTIONS ON THE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ? ARE THERE FALSE QUESTIONS ABOUT EFFECTS OF MOBILITY ? ARE THERE GENERATIONS OF QUESTIONS ON MOBILITY EFFECTS AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS ? YES, AND THERE ARE NICE PARALLELS

20. LIPSET GENERATION PERCENTAGES OF PHENOMENON X FOR CLIMBERS, STAYERS, AND SKIDDERS DUNCAN GENERATIONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS SOBEL GENERATIONNON - LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS AGAIN : TECHNIQUES NO GOALS IN THEMSELVES NEW TECHNIQUES ANSWER BETTER QUESTIONS THREE GENERATIONS IN RESEARCH ON MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS

21. LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH INTERACTION TERMS ARE MATHEMATICALLY EQUIVALENT TO NON - LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS BUT IN THE DUNCAN GENERATION INTERACTION PARAMETERS ARE DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET WHEREAS IN THE SOBEL GENERATION PARAMETERS STAND FOR INTERESTING SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES

22. EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY ON WHAT ? VOTING MARITAL FERTILITY DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR FEMALE LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION VISITING A MUSEUM, CONCERT HALL, THEATER OTHER CULTURAL ACTIVITIES LIKE READING BOOKS

23. THE LIPSET GENERATION QUESTION : ARE CLIMBERS MORE LIKELY THAN STAYERS TO VOTE FOR THE RIGHT AND SKIDDERS FOR THE LEFT ?

24. LIPSET GENERATION RESULTS WERE MIXED THIS LED TO A POLISHING OF FINDINGS NEXT TO MOBILITY, CLASS OF ORIGIN OR CLASS OF DESTINATION WAS INTRODUCED AS A CONTROL THIS COMPOUNDED THE DIFFICULTIES FLOOR AND CEILING EFFECTS BECAME EASY TO SPOT

25. LIPSET’S TABLE FOR THE USA IN 1948 PERCENT VOTING REPUBLICAN AFTER OWN CLASS AND CLASS OF ORIGIN MANUALNON-MANUAL ORIGIN MANUAL 20 70 NON-MANUAL 40 60 70 IS MORE THAN 60 : UPWARDLY MOBILE PERSONS OVER-CONFORM LIPSET COMPARES AN OFF-DIAGONAL WITH A MAIN-DIAGONAL PERCENTAGE

26. DUNCAN, WHEN EXPLAINING MARITAL FERTILITY, HELD LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS TO BE PREMATURE THE RIGHT QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE DUNCAN GENERATION IS : AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EFFECTS OF PRESENT OCCUPATION AND EFFECTS OF ORIGIN, ARE THERE EFFECTS OF MOBILITY AS SUCH ?

27. DUNCAN ANSWERED THIS QUESTION WITH LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS INCLUDING ON TOP OF MAIN EFFECTS INTERACTION EFFECTS

28. THE SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION : WHAT DO PERSONS WEIGH MORE HEAVILY IN CHOOSING BETWEEN ACTIVITIES THEIR ORIGIN OR THEIR DESTINATION? THEIR OWN GROUP OR THAT OF THEIR PARTNER?

29. SOBEL HOLDS THAT DUNCAN GENERATION QUESTIONS ARE IMPRECISE : THEY PERTAIN TO INTERACTIONS, WITHOUT SPECIFYING IN ADVANCE THE TYPE OF INTERACTION

30. SOBEL REJECTS LIPSET GENERATION QUESTIONS THEY POOL ALL STAYERS WHEREAS QUESTIONS ABOUT CONFORMITY TO THE NORMS IN A PERSON’S DESTINATION GROUP AND ABOUT REJECTION OF NORMS IN A PERSON’S ORIGIN GROUP IMPLY A COMPARISON OF CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS WITH TWO SPECIFIC TYPES OF STAYERS

32. PERCENT OF WOMEN VOTING LABOUR AFTER OWN CLASS AND CLASS HUSBAND IN BRITAIN 1974 – 1987 ACCORDING TO HEATH & DE GRAAF 1992 OWN HIGH234LOWTOTAL HUSBAND HIGH 82314414820 2273226 02231 333 818254826 4352757656961 LOW464445776860 TOTAL202833606543 DUNCAN READS THIS TABLE FROM THE TWO MARGINALS AND FINDS INDEPENDENT EFFECTS OF OWN CLASS AND PARTNER’S CLASS SOBEL BEGINS WITH MAIN DIAGONAL PERCENTGAES AND ASKS WHETHER OFF DIAGONAL PERCENTAGES ARE IN BETWEEN

33. DUNCAN’S MARGINAL REFERENCE MODELS VERSUS SOBEL’S DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS SOBEL’S MOST SIMPLE MODEL : WHATEVER TWO DIAGONAL CELLS ARE CHOSEN A PERSON ALWAYS WEIGHS OWN CLASS - OR ORIGIN - WITH THE SAME WEIGHT AND CLASS PARTNER - OR DESTINATION - WITH ANOTHER SOME WEIGHT WITH BOTH WEIGHTS ADDING UP TO ONE

34. SOME OLDER ANSWERS TO SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS ABOUT MOBILITY AND HETEROGAMY EFFECTS IN BRITAIN, FOR FEMALE VOTING THE CLASS OF THE HUSBAND CARRIES MORE WEIGHT THAN THE CLASS OF THE WIFE IS FOR MALE VOTING WITH RESPECT TO FATHER - SON MOBILITY FOR THE NETHERLANDS IT WAS FOUND THAT FATHER’S CLASS CARRIED MORE WEIGHT THAN OWN CLASS

36. ONE VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS : PEOPLE ARE QUICK TO ADAPT TO THE NORMS OF THEIR DESTINATION GROUP - IF THEY MOVE UP BUT ARE THEY LESS LIKELY TO ADMIT TO THEMSELVES THAT THEY MOVED DOWN ? ASSIGN WEIGHTS FOR ABOVE MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS WHICH ARE DIFFERENT FROM WEIGHTS FOR BELOW MAIN DIAGONAL CELLS

37. ANOTHER VARIATION ON SOBEL GENERATION QUESTIONS : OVER - CONFORMITY CAN BE MODELLED BY INCLUDING A SPECIAL PARAMETER FOR THE CELLS WHERE OVER - CONFORMITY IS PREDICTED AFTER USA 1948 NO NEW STRONG CASES OF OVER - CONFORMITY IN VORING HAVE BEEN FOUND

39. A SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION : IS THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR LEAST UNEQUAL WHEN BOTH PARTNERS HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION, MOST UNEQUAL WHEN THEY BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION ? AND DO MIXED COUPLES FALL IN BETWEEN, OR ARE THERE ‘MACHO MAN’ EFFECTS ? TABLES FROM VAN BERKEL’S PH.D. WHO DOMINATES WHEN ? USING THE FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 1993

40. FEMALE SHARE IN DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993 MAN LOWMIDDLE HIGHTOTAL WOMAN LOW9089 9390 MIDDLE8887 8787 HIGH8579 8080 TOTAL8587 8587 HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO DOING THE DIRTY LAUNDRY

41. FEMALE SHARE IN CLEANING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993 MAN LOWMIDDLE HIGHTOTAL WOMAN LOW8483 8884 MIDDLE7979 8079 HIGH8472 7072 TOTAL8380 7781 HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN DO LESS THAN LOWLY EDUCATED MEN OF LOWLY EDUCATED WOMEN WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO CLEANING

42. FEMALE SHARE IN COOKING AFTER EDUCATION WOMAN AND EDUCATION PARTNER IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1993 MAN LOWMIDDLE HIGHTOTAL WOMAN LOW7473 7374 MIDDLE7069 6969 HIGH7066 6364 TOTAL7371 6771 WOMEN WITH HIGH EDUCATION BRING HIGHLY EDUCATED MEN TO COOKING IN DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS THE WEIGHT FOR WOMEN’S EDUCATION IS ONE THERE ARE SPECIAL EFFECTS

43. NOTE THAT THE MEASURES FOR THE DIVISION OF HOUSEHOLD LABOUR REFER TO A COMPOSITE SCORE IS THIS FIRST GENERATION ERROR OK HERE ? ONLY IF THE NUMBER OF TIMES AN ACTIVITY IS PERFORMED DOES NOT DIFFER MUCH BETWEEN COUPLES !

45. ANOTHER SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION : IS HAVING A PAID JOB FOR WOMEN WITH A PARTNER MOST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LEAST LIKELY WHEN BOTH HAVE THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION, AND IN BETWEEN FOR MIXED COUPLES ?

46. PERCENT OF WOMEN WITH A PAID JOB DUTCH LABOUR FORCE SURVEY PARTNER’S EDUCATION HIGH23LOWTOTAL OWN HIGH7983858380 EDUCATION26372676468 34449474147 LOW2837352732 TOTAL6863554160 FOR WOMEN WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION, HAVING A PARTNER WITH THE HIGHEST EDUCATION IS A DISINCENTIVE TO A PAID JOB

47. THE FINAL SOBEL GENERATION QUESTION : WHEN EXPLAING HIGH CULTURE ACTIVITIES, WHAT WEIGHS HEAVIER ? RULE OF THUMB FOR THE NETHERLANDS FROM DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS A PERSON’S OWN EDUCATION WEIGHS FOR ONE HALF PARTNER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE THIRD FATHER’S EDUCATION FOR ONE SIXTH THE 3 - 2 - 1 RULE

49. COMBINING THE FIRST SERIES OF MACRO QUESTIONS WITH THE SECOND SERIES OF MICRO QUESTIONS INTO AN NEW MACRO QUESTION : IS IT ABSOLUTE MOBILITY, SOCIAL FLUIDITY, OR THE COMPETITIVE BALANCE THAT TIPS ELECTORAL OUTCOMES ? BACK TO SOMBART : WHY NO SOCIALIST PARTY IN THE USA ? BECAUSE OF HIGH SOCIAL MOBILITY ! BUT WHAT KIND OF SOCIAL MOBILITY ?!

50. IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST ECONOMIC INTERESTS, THEN A MORE FAVOURABLE COMPETITIVE BALANCE MAKES FOR A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES IF ALL VOTERS WEIGH CURRENT AND PAST STATUS MOTIVES, THEN A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF ABSOLUTE MOBILITY - WHETHER UPWARD OR DOWNWARD - MAKES FOR A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF RIGHT - WING VOTES

51. DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS ONE DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS ONE ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS ONE

52. DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS AND SKIDDERS 0,8 DESTINATION WEIGHT CLIMBERS 0,8 ORIGIN WEIGHT SKIDDERS 0,8

53. FROM ELECTORAL OUTCOMES TO OVERALL BOOK READING AS THE MACRO PHENOMENON TO BE EXPLAINED A COMPARISON OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES ? DOES BOOK READING DECLINE? AND TO WHAT EXTEND DOES IT DO SO BECAUSE OF MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY AND MORE MIXED MARRIAGES?

54. SEE DE GRAAF & ULTEE ELECTORAL STUDIES 1990 SEE EQUALSOC WEBSITE FOR DIAGONAL REFERENCE MODELS SEE SOBEL AMERICAL SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW 1981 AND 1985