1. Main-streaming climate variability and change in flood management Avinash Tyagi Director, Climate and Water World Meteorological Organization 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence Toronto, 8th May 2008

2. New IPCC Findings Confirms impacts we are already witnessing Impacts dependent upon both climate change and adaptive capacity Emphasizes the importance of adaptation Recommends a portfolio approach

3. Manifested through…. Manifested through…. Precipitation form, timing and quantity Sea level rise Air temperature

6. Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages www.gaestehaus-loreley.de SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004 and at the same time poses great risks

7. changes in the averages/ trends Climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle… changes in variability (magnitude, severity, duration)

8. Hazards –Floods –Droughts –Flow regime changes

9. Floods and Droughts “A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and droughts” IPCC AR4, 2007 Difficulties in creating scenarios of changes in rainfall as applied to « flood-producing » events Influence of geology Anthropogenic changes may be more pronounced Droughts have many definitions and the risks have climatic and non-climatic factors influencing it Critically dependant on water management practices

10. Flood damages are increasing…

11. Challenges of Flood Management Population increase Securing livelihoods Absolute safety from flooding is a myth

12. Challenges of Flood Management Climate variability and change www.awitness.org cumulus.geol.iastate.edu / Changes in decision making processes Ecosystem Conservation

13. Adaptations Future vulnerability depends on development pathways, Extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability, Adaptations will be necessary to address impacts, A portfolio of adaptation options have to be studied.

14. Integrated flood management Water Resources Management and Flood Management IWRM

15. OCEAN RIVER SYSTEM WATER QUALITY CONTROL REGIONAL RETENTION DETENTION WASTE WATER WATER SUPPLY RETENTION URBANISED LAND SURFACE SEWERAGE TREATMENT PLANT SOIL GROUND WATER PIPE or OPEN DRAIN Urban Flood Hydrologic Cycle SEWER DETENTION RAIN EVAPORATION

16. Urban floods integrated land use planning to achieve multiple uses for urban land, capture and storage of roof runoff in order to reduce demands on the potable water supply, ponding of stormwater runoff for use in non-potable water supply, use of infiltration facilities to reduce direct storm runoff and increase low flows in rivers.

17. Integrated Flood Management PRINCIPLES Risk Management Water Cycle as a whole Multi-hazard approach River basin as a planning unit Inter-disciplinary Stakeholders participation

18. Integrated Flood Management: Objectives –Sustainable development: balancing development needs and flood risks –Maximising benefits: ensure livelihood security and poverty alleviation thereby reducing vulnerability –Minimising loss of life –Environmental preservation

19. supported with appropriate –Legislation and regulations; –Institutional structures for proper coordination and appropriate linkages; –Economic instruments; –Enabling participatory processes; and –Information management and exchange mechanisms. Requirements of IFM Clear and objective policies with a multidisciplinary approach

20. Difficulties in Adaptations Lack of basic information Insufficient monitoring and observation systems Settlements in vulnerable areas Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework Lack of capacity Low income SOURCE: IPCC Working Group II Report, 2007

21. Mission of APFM “ to support countries in the integrated management of floods within the overall framework of integrated water resources management.”

22. Flood Management Policy Series Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM Expert-group based Peer-reviewed Specific target groups –Policy Makers –Flood Managers –Experts in respective special fields Target group adapted language and format

23. Data CommunicationForecast Decision Support NotificationCoordinationActions Hydrological Observations Data transmissionFlood Forecasting Decisions Appropriate Individuals & Groups Preparedness, Response and Decisions Evacuation and Rescue operations a Critical Chain of Events and Actions Flood forecasting, warning and response system

24. Flood risk assessment adaptive management …….. Flood Proofing and Building Codes Flood Regulations Basin Flood Planning

25. Conclusions… Use resilient policies: Integrated Flood Management Beginning today based on imperfect climate information is far better than no action at all. Use today’s available science to discuss possible future scenarios that factor the possibility that the future MAY NOT look like the past. “Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” Peter Drucker Peter Drucker

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