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Recent Economic and Value Trends for the U.S. Lodging Industry Presented by: Stephen Rushmore, MAI, CHA President and Founder HVS International 516-248-8828 ext. 204 srushmore@hvsinternational.com www.hvsinternational.com srushmore@hvsinternational.com www.hvsinternational.com srushmore@hvsinternational.com www.hvsinternational.com
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$12,000 $6,000 $5,000 18% 10% 7% $81,000 $69,000 $63,000 2005 2004 2003 Per Room Change Percentage Change Per Room Value $12,000 $1,000 $0Per Room Change 17% 1% 0%Percentage Change $80,000 $68,000 $67,000Per Room Value 2000 1999 1998 $15,000 $8,000 $10,000 $6,000Per Room Change 28% 19% 28% 23%Percentage Change $67,000 $52,000 $44,000 $34,000Per Room Value 1997 1996 1995 1994 ($3,000) -5% $58,000 2002 ($19,000) -23% $61,000 2001 Hotel Value Trends - USA
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Value Per Room - 2002 1. New York $223,000 2. Las Vegas $187,000 3. Oahu $174,000 4. San Diego $133,000 5. San Francisco$132,000 6. San Antonio $122,000 7. New Orleans $120,000 8. Long Island $103,000 9. Sacramento $ 96,000 10. Boston $ 96,000 Source: HVS International 21. United States $ 58,000
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1.New York($159,000) 2.San Francisco ($113,000) 3.Boston ($ 87,000) 4.San Jose ($ 82,000) 5.Chicago($ 46,000) 6.Oahu($ 41,000) 7.Oakland ($ 34,000) 8.Austin ($ 32,000) 9.Orlando ($ 32,000) 10.Dallas ($ 28,000) 1.San Jose ($62,000) 2.San Francisco ($62,000) 3.Oakland ($40,000) 4.Boston($33,000) 5.Long Island($30,000) 6.Austin ($21,000) 7.Chicago ($18,000) 8.Miami ($13,000) 9.Houston ($13,000) 10.New York ($13,000) Change in Value Per Room 20012002 Source: HVS International 18. United States ($ 18,000)31. United States ($ 3,000)
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37. Memphis ($5,033) 38.Anaheim ($4,619) 39.Jacksonville ($3,951) 40.Albuquerque ($2,659) 41.San Antonio ($1,942) 42.Tampa ($1,566) 43.Las Vegas ($1,390) 44.Sacramento ($1,240) 45.Salt Lake City ($ 642) 46.Houston $6,838 Change in Value Per Room 2002 Source: HVS International 2001 37. Orlando $ 1,403 38.Jacksonville $ 1,666 39. San Diego $ 2,015 40. Sacramento $ 2,147 41.Philadelphia $ 7,544 42. Las Vegas $ 8,478 43.Baltimore $10,407 44.Oahu $11,119 45.San Antonio $19,506 46.Salt Lake City $34,292
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1.San Francisco($175,000) 2.New York ($172,000) 3.San Jose ($144,000) 4.Boston ($120,000) 5.Oakland($ 74,000) 6.Chicago ($ 64,000) 7.Austin ($ 52,000) 8.Long Island ($ 47,000) 9.Dallas ($ 39,000) 10.Miami ($ 34,000) 24. United States($ 21,000) 37.Houston($ 6,000) 38.St. Louis ($ 5,000) 39.Memphis ($ 4,000) 40.Albuquerque ($ 3,000) 41.Jacksonville($ 2,000) 42.Baltimore ($ 500) 43.Sacramento $ 1,000 44.Las Vegas $ 7,000 45.San Antonio $ 18,000 46.Salt Lake City $ 34,000 Change In Value Per Room – 2001 & 2002 Source: HVS International
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1988198919901991 26 17 34 32 1992199319941995 11 13 6 3 1996199719981999 11 4 22 26 2000200120022003 10 45 32 16 Number of Markets With Decline in Value Based on 47 Markets
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1.New York ($99,840) 2.Long Island ($38,888) 3.Boston ($33,261) 4.Los Angeles ($28,565) 5. Washington,DC ($24,385) 6. Las Vegas ($20,210) 7. Baltimore ($17,703) 8.San Jose ($17,338) 9.San Diego ($16,798) 10.Oahu ($16,323) 14.USA ($12,840) Comparison of Per Room Change in Two Downturn Markets Per Room 2000-2002 Source: HVS International Per Room 1989-1991 1.San Francisco ($175,425) 2.New York ($172,097) 3.San Jose ($144,206) 4.Boston ($120,361) 5. Oakland ($ 73,692) 6.Chicago ($ 64,358) 7.Austin ($ 52,454) 8.Long Island ($ 47,018) 9.Dallas ($ 39,272) 10.Miami ($ 33,952) 14.USA ($ 21,240)
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37Salt Lake City $ 4,352 38.Dallas $ 4,906 39.Albuquerque $ 5,503 40.Portland $ 5,767 41.San Antonio $ 7,308 42.Minneapolis $ 7,869 43.Denver $10,026 44.New Orleans $11,339 45.Austin $15,883 46.Houston $16,244 Comparison of Per Room Change in Two Downturn Markets Per Room 2000-2002 Source: HVS International Per Room 1989-1991 37.Houston ($ 5,975) 38.St. Louis ($ 5,263) 39.Memphis ($ 3,866) 40.Albuquerque ($ 2,895) 41.Jacksonville ($ 2,285) 42.Baltimore ($ 442) 43.Sacramento $ 901 44.Las Vegas $ 7,088 45.San Antonio $ 17,564 46.Salt Lake City $ 33,650
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1.New York$149,000 2.Oahu $140,000 3.San Francisco $109,000 4.San Diego $ 90,000 5.Las Vegas$ 86,000 6.Washington, DC$ 69,000 7.San Antonio $ 68,000 8.Long Island $ 64,000 9.Miami $ 62,000 10.San Jose $ 58,000 18. United States$ 38,000 37.Denver$18,000 38.Oakland $15,000 39.Ft. Lauderdale $13,000 40.Charlotte$11,000 41.Cincinnati$ 8,000 42.Salt Lake City $ 6,999 43.Austin $ 4,000 44.Dallas $ 4,000 45.Cleveland $ 4,000 46.Detroit $ 3,000 Change in Value Per Room – 2002 - 2006 Source: HVS International
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1.Pittsburgh 226% 2.Nashville 180% 3.Chicago 179% 4.Portland 165% 5.Albuquerque158% 6.Kansas City 130% 7.Cincinnati 117% 8.Minneapolis 104% 9.Los Angeles 86% 10.Indianapolis 85% 25. United States 65% 37.Sacramento42% 38.New Orleans40% 39.Boston 37% 40.Ft. Lauderdale30% 41.Oakland25% 42.Dallas 24% 43.Cleveland 21% 44.Detroit13% 45.Salt Lake City 8% 46.Austin 7% Percent Change in Value 2002 - 2006 Source: HVS International
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1.Las Vegas2 2.San Antonio2 3.Sacramento2 4.Salt Lake City2 5. San Diego3 6.Baltimore3 7.Jacksonville3 8.Oahu4 9.St. Louis4 10.Memphis4 16.United States5 Number of Years for Values to Recover to 2000 Levels Source: HVS International 30.New York 7+ 31.San Francisco7+ 32.Boston7+ 33.San Jose7+ 34. Austin7+ 35.Oakland7+ 36.Ft. Lauderdale7+ 37.Denver 7+ 38.Atlanta7+ 39. Cleveland7+ 40.Chicago7+ 41.Dallas7+ 42.Charlotte7+ 43.Detroit7+ 44. Cincinnati7+
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Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Luxury Market Segment 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Luxury Replacement Cost
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Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Upscale Market Segment 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Upscale Replacement Cost
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Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Midprice Market Segment 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Midprice Replacement Cost
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Replacement Costs vs. Value per Room Economy Market Segment 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 19871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Economy Replacement Cost
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Source: Smith Travel Research 197564% 1976 66% 8.2% 5.7%1.44 197767% 8.1% 6.5%1.25 197870%14.0% 7.7%1.82 197972%17.0%11.3%1.50 % Change% Change AR/CPI Year Occupancy Av Rate CPI Index 199363% 1994 65% 3.8% 2.6%1.46 199565% 4.8% 2.8%1.71 199665% 6.5% 3.0%2.17 199764% 5.9% 2.3%2.57 199864% 4.6% 1.6%2.88
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Ten Largest Sales by Price per Room in 2002 Montage Resort & SpaLaguna Beach, CA260$730,000Laguna Beach Resorts Monarch HotelWashington, DC416$353,000Legacy Hotel REIT Box Tree Inn New York, NY 13$307,000252 East 49 (LLC) Eden RocMiami Beach, FL347$277,000Blackacre Capital Hotel Wales New York, NY 87$276,000DLJ Capital RECP II Hyatt Regency Lahaina, HI 837$275,000Blackstone Group The Orchid at Mauna LaniKahola Coast, HI 539$260,000Fairmont Hotels&Resorts La Costa Resort & Spa Carlsbad, CA479$251,000KSL Recreation Corp. British Airways HotelNew York, NY 124$250,000Affiliate Hotel Properties Holiday Inn on the Hill Washington, DC 343$233,000LaSalle Hotel Properties Source: HVS International # of Price Individual Hotel Location Rooms per Room Buyer
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Rushmore’s Observations It should not get any worse than this. When occupancy starts to recover look for- Transaction volume will rise rapidly Now is the time to position yourself for a strong recovery Economy should recover War is wrapping up Supply growth is slowing Escalating profits Increased property level spending Particularly FF&E Rapid growth in room rate Transactions equate to renovations
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