1. Science questions How will source-receptor relations change due to expected changes in emissions? How should future emission scenarios be constructed?

2. Global emissions of NO x [million tons] Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

3. Emission standards for gasoline vehicles Current legislation 20102000 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

4. Emission standards for diesel heavy duty vehicles Current legislation 20102000 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005

5. Projections of global SO 2, NO x, BC and OC emissions from anthropogenic sources, relative to 2000 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 2005 Business as usual, with recent air quality legislations SO2NOxBCOC Maximum technically feasible reductions

6. Currently ongoing activities China (Hao Jiming) EDGAR (John van Ardenne) GEIA (Claire Granier) EMEP (Kristin Rypdal)

7. Emission = Activity level x Emission Factor Type of Sources and Pollutants, for a base year  Coal combustion: SO 2, NOx, CO, Hg, PM  Biomass burning: black carbon  Emissions from transportation sector: VOC, NO, PM  Industrial processes: Hg from nonferrous metal smelting and cement production  Other sources of VOCs  a guideline for developing emission inventory Emissions Inventories

8. 8 john.van-aardenne@jrc.it Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) Emission sources: - Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion - Industrial processes - Agriculture - Waste - Biomass burning Emission sources: - Biofuel/fossil fuel production/combustion - Industrial processes - Agriculture - Waste - Biomass burning Compounds: - CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases - NO x, CO, NMVOC, SO 2, NH 3 - BC/OC Compounds: - CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases - NO x, CO, NMVOC, SO 2, NH 3 - BC/OC 1890 199019952000 20?? EDGAR/HYDE EDGAR v2 EDGAR v3 EDGAR FT EDGAR v4 EDGAR + IIASA EDGAR + POLES vd Werf Hoelzemann Bond QAUNTIFY Eyring GEIA

9. 9 Issues in emission inventories john.van-aardenne@jrc.it Activity data: biofuel use / biomass burning / statistics non-OECD Emission factors: emission abatement Grid maps (cm 2 technical possible; data is often missing) Temporal resolution (emission by month/week/day/hour) Emission height (in which model layer is emitted?) Compound speciation (NMVOC, aerosol) Verification studies

10. 10 Emission inventories and this task force john.van-aardenne@jrc.it 1. Make use of existing work. Do not define a new inventory but provide means for existing emissions inventories (global/regional/country/city) to exchange knowledge and improve insight. 2. Verification of existing inventories - Global emissions budget: (inverse studies/satellite data) - Spatial/temporal resolution (measurement campaigns/regional modeling) - Emission factors/speciation (local measurements) 3. Science vs accountancy - Scientific capacity building in emission inventory development (exchange/training) - Fund accountancy work such as data mining on activity data and grid map construction for which often no scientific credits can be gained. -1-3: How to deal with national (UNFCCC/EMEP-CORINAIR) emission inventories do we aim at independent estimates?

11. Emission inventories: a few issues Claire GRANIER Service d’Aeronomie / IPSL, Paris, France Also at: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and CIRES/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, USA

12. Development of international databases Within:  the GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity) project of IGBP Co-chairs: A. Guenther (NCAR, Boulder, USA) and C. Granier  the ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change) European Network Version 2 of the GEIA database developed as part of ACCENT http://www.accent-network.org First (global) inventories of GEIA-2 will be released ~ June, 15  POET (1990-2000)  RETRO (1960-2000) Tools will be soon available:  visualization  comparisons  regridding  formats

13. A few issues Consistency between inventories:  gaseous/aerosols and VOCs speciation  spatial: local, regional and global  More links between communities: national/international and international projects (organize an international workshop?) Natural emissions  from static inventories to interactive parameterizations/models to take into account impact of meteorology, climate change and land- use change. Database of ancillary data under development within GEIA and ACCENT (more participants welcome). Verification of emissions  intercomparisons of inventories and input data (emission factors, activity data, fire counts/area burned, etc.)  Inverse modeling : is currently limited to a few species (CO, NO2) at the global scale. Has started to be used for local/regional emissions. Methods still under development, an intercomparison could be organized.