1. Outlook for wine and wine grapes Dr. Caroline Gunning-Trant Economist ABARE

2. Industry observations low prices cancellation / non-renewal of contracts Wine Restructure Action Agenda (WRAA)

4. Export Dependence 1998-992008-09 Exports 64% Exports 38% Domestic 62% Domestic 36% Total sales: 564 million litresTotal sales: 1,180 million litres

5. Major Export Markets Million Litres Bulk

6. Exports by price category 62% 76% 85%

7. Australian Wine Exports

8. Domestic Wine Consumption Domestic Litres per person Imports

10. Assumptions THIS VINTAGE: heat wave in November reduced data availability from ABS - sample only - only 10 major varieties - multipurpose grapes excluded no assumption about grubbings FUTURE VINTAGES average yields no extreme weather events national bearing area to decline from 2013-14

11. Wine Grape Production

12. Summary continued decline of wine grape prices pressure on wine grape growers given price expectations speed and extent of industry restructure unknown world markets

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14. Australian wine imports