1. 1 Results from the GRAPE Model Atsushi KUROSAWA Research and Development Division, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE) Shinbashi SY bldg., 1-14-2 Nishishinbashi, Minato, Tokyo 105-0003 JAPAN Phone (+81) 3-3508-8894 / Fax (+81) 3-3501-1735 E-mail : kurosawa@iae.or.jp Expert Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change UK Met Office, Bracknell UK September 25-27, 2002 The views are solely those of the individual author and do not represent organizational view of the Institute of Applied Energy

2. 2 Outline [1] GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE [2] PHASE 2 RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY RUNS [3] SUMMARY

3. 3 ENERGY CLIMATE IMPACTLAND USE ECONOMY CO2,CH4,N2O (Fossil Fuel) Energy Cost Energy Trade Carbon Trade Biomass Energy Atmospheric Temperature Landuse Related Cost Food Trade Carbon(Deforestation) CH4(Livestock,Rice) N2O(Fertilizer),etc [1] GRAPE MODEL AND CLIMATE MODULE

4. 4 CLIMATE CHANGE CO 2 Em. Ocean CH 4 Em. N 2 O Conc. CH 4 Conc. CO 2 Conc. Atmosphere N 2 O Em. Rice Field Other GHGs Em. Forest Fos.Fuel Consumption Chemical Industry Fertilized Soil Livestock Fos. Fuel Production Concentration → Rad. Forc. Emissions Rad. Forcing Temperature Sources

5. 5 [2] PHASE 2 RESULTS GLOBAL SCALE ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY RUNS # Formulation Emissions to Concentrations CO2 - Four Box model CH4,N2O – One Box model Concentrations to Rad. Forcings IPCC WGI TAR Rad. Forcings to Temp. Change & SLR Two Box model # Evaluation Period 10 year step

6. 6 # Sensitivity Run Past Emissions : EDGAR Future Emissions : IPCC SRES A2 Marker StartEnd Case 118902000 - default Case 219902100 Case 318902100

7. 7 # Regional Contibution Assessment Example : Region A Contribution >>> Nature + Region A Emission Start End Definition of Contribution = (change of param. in regional calculation) / (change of param. in global calculation)

8. 8 # Cumulative Emissions

9. 9 # Concentrations

10. 10 # Radiative Forcing

11. 11 # Temperature Change

12. 12 # Sea Level Rise

13. 13 # Strength of Non-Linearity -- Regional sum is not equal to 100%. ParameterPeriod(Reg.Sum) – (Global) CO2 Conc.Past (case 1)-15% Future (case 2)-31% Past+Future(case 3)-3% Rad ForcingPast-14% Future-37% Past+Future25% TempPast5% Future-31% Past+Future25% SLRPast39% Future31% Past+Future30%

14. 14 [3] SUMMARY # Strong non-linearity is observed. # Treatment of natural emission? # Historical evaluation start date should be 1760 as default value since this period is considered as the beginning of human interventions.

15. 15 Thank you for your kind attention.