1. Direct effects of climate change on plants in Hungary Eszter Erdei, J. Bobvos**, T. Hardy*, E. Jozsa*, A. Paldy* * Natl. Institute of Environmental Health, Natl. Centre for Public Health, Budapest, Hungary **Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest

3. Aim of the study To assess the impact of climate variability on the production of pollen grains and mould spores in Budapest, Hungary To examine changes in aeroallergen abundance related to climatic conditions To give descriptions of the characteristics of pollen and spore seasons during longer time period

4. The yearly T average in the last 100 years of Hungary (°C)

5. Methods Pollen and spore database: 32 different allergenic pollen grains and 2 mould spores and other spores are recorded continuously with standardized method (Burkard 7-day volumetric trap) on daily basis by Hungarian Aerobiological Network  2 traps in Budapest (average pg/m3 was used), N=4018 observations! Weather database: collected by online air pollution monitoring stations of the Metropolitan Institute of State Public Health Service, Budapest

7. aeroallergen counts Consolidated daily aeroallergen counts into 3 groups: spring trees (Alnus, Corylus, Betula, Fraxinus, Populus, Carpinus etc.) grasses and summer-autumn weeds (Poaceae, Ambrosia, Artemisia, Chenopodiacea, ect.) mold spores (Alternaria, Cladosporium, other spores, sum) Meteorological factors Meteorological factors: temperature (daily min, max, range, 24-hour average) humidity (RH %) sunshine intensity (kW/hour) barometric pressure (hPa) windspeed (km/hour)

10. Agrometeorological parameter: total heatsums („growing degree days”) were used including negative T values calculated from 1st January of every study year till the date of the 1% of the total yearly catch of the certain allergen species; -relative percentages of the yearly sums (separately for the studied years) were compared to the starting dates of the pollen seasons (retrospective method, 1% of the total yearly catch) for 8 allergenic pollen produced plant species and the total mould spores

11. Variations of aeroallergen concentrations in Budapest 1992-2002

12. Linear trends of aeroallergen concentrations during the 11-years-long study period ßCI minCI max PTREE**13,8411,8615,82 PGRASS**11,289,8112,75 ALT-1,24-2,13-0,346 CLADO12,30-1,9526,55 OS**257,44212,94301,94

13. Average pollen concentrations by years and trends in Budapest Spring blooming trees (birch, ash) Grasses and ragweed

14. Variability of T 24 and starting dates of birch pollen seasons

15. Variability of T min and starting dates of ragweed pollen seasons

16. Percentages of total heatsum values (±SD) at the starting dates of pollination seasons of 8 allergenic plant species and mould

17. Variabilities of heatsum values related to birch pollination period’s starting dates in Budapest

18. Variabilities of heatsum values related to ragweed pollination period’s starting dates

19. Morbidity data of rhinitis allergica patients in Hungary

20. Number of hospitalized asthmatic patients in Hungary

21. Conclusions Increased production of aeroallergens during study period in Budapest - direct health impact of climate variability. Starts of pollen seasons varied remarkably; associations with T 24 and T min. The abundance of the most allergenic pollen types is enhanced moderately during the study period. Prediction can be made using relative heatsum values for starting dates of pollen seasons and fungi spore production.

22. Acknowledgement Special thank goes to: Tamás Bodorics for agrometeorological advices This work was supported by the Hungarian National Environmental Health Action Programme (NEHAP)