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OLED Summit Preview San Francisco September 27-29
Barry Young, CEO, Young Market Research (YMR) Managing Director, OLED Association April 15, 2017
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OLED Association Promote the development and commercialization of OLED products Foster the development and use of OLED-specific performance standards Serve as a source of OLED industry information for the media and financial community Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Young Market Research (YMR)
Products Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand 20 Year Projection for Solid State Lighting (SSL) LED Material Report (under construction) OLED Lighting Report (under construction)
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The Inflection Point AMOLED’s Incredible Growth in 2011 and 2012 In 2009, there was only 1 AMOLED Fab operating in MP with 26K substrates starts/month. By the end of the 2012, there will be at least 7 Fabs from 4 different suppliers.Two of the fabs will be Gen 5.5 (1300x1500 mm). Capacity will grow to 260K substrates/month Super AMOLED from Samsung, with Integrated Touch S.S. Kim, SID Seminar in May, 2010 SMD’s goal is 600m 700m smartphone displays by 2015 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Technology
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TFT LCD Vs. AMOLED Display
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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A Word About Substrate Sizes
x920 2011 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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AMOLED Pixel Architecture
Technical Status of OLED backplanes, LTPS with excimer lasers similar to LTPS LCDs but OLEDs require a 2 TFT, 1 Capacitor Design, while LCDs use 1 TFT and 1 capacitor Compensation, 4 to 5 TFTs are added to compensate for non-uniformity Major difference is that the 2nd TFT (Dr.) has a duty cycle of over 90% a-Si used by most LCDs is susceptible to Vth changes as it heats up and has not been used to drive AMOLEDs, although there are compensation approaches that are being tested The capital expense for LTPS used in the array process is ~2X the capital cost of a-Si, the TACT is longer and the yields are lower VDD Vdata CS Sel Sw. Dr. OLED Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Backplanes Excimer laser size are currently limited to 4th Gen with a beam length of ~450 x 4 mm . Companies such as JSW and TCZ are developing beam lengths as long a ~800 mm to support 6th Gen Fabs Primary alternatives to LTPS include: a-Si with compensation Super Grain Silicon (SGS) Solid Phase Crystallization (SPC) Oxide TFTs C TFTs cSi TFTs Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Deposition & Patterning
New Techniques Required to Scale the Process Making finely patterned sub-pixels with small molecule material requires the use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask, where the substrate and mask are held in a horizontal position Size limits are defined by the sagging of the mask To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs utilize Pentile technology, which reduces the pixel size from 3 sub pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Patterning Options Alternative approaches include:
Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color filter The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson Slot – DuPont Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Performance Impact Comparing Performance: AMOLEDs vs. TFT LCDs
OLED Performance will be a differentiator for high end TVs; especially in 3D, sports and movies because of the viewing angle, the fast response time, and gray scale performance OLED TVs are likely to compete with Full LED backlighting and 3D LCDs. LG Display’s 31” TV supports both 2D and 3D viewing OLED panels will use ~ ½ the power of LED backlit panels, but the same for the TV components, so the difference for TVs will be 25% to 30%. OLEDs recreate the lower gray levels better than LCDs, which is a differentiator in video, where the average color saturation is ~20% Longer term AMOLED TVs cost should cost less than LCDs and cause most manufacturers to switch technologies OLEDs will be challenged to compete in bright ambient conditions Differential aging could be a factor unless material lifetimes improve by at least 2X The issue of image burn-in, which has not been an problem for smartphones, may require attention due when news tickers are considered Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED vs. TFT LCD Comparison
Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Production Capacity
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Production … Production Plans SMD LG Display AUO CMI Chinese
Gen 4 730x920 mm Q4’07 Small/Medium Gen x1500mm Q3’11 Small/Medium LG Display Gen 4 730x920 mm Q3’10 Small/Medium Gen x1500mm Q3’11 Small/Medium & Large Area TVs AUO Gen x720 Q1’11 Small/Medium Gen 4 730x Q1’11 Small/Medium CMI Gen x720 Q1’08 Small/Medium Chinese (Visionox, Rainbow, BOE…) Q1’11 Small/Medium Gen 4 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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31” AMOLED TV From LG Display
AMOLED TVs 2007 11” XEL-1 from Sony 2009 15” 15EL9500 from LG Display 2011 31” AMOLED TV From LG Display
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What Did the Sony XEL-1 Prove
Proven Visually Superior than any other TV Thin Form Factor – Desirable High Contrast Ratio Differentiating Unbelievable Dark Levels Speed Matters Not Proven OLED Manufacturing Scales 30” + OLED TVs are possible at competitive pricing Performance in terms of lifetime, viewing angle, ambient contrast ratio are at acceptable levels OLEDs use less power than LCDs NY Times – OLED TVs make traditional TVs seem as if you are looking through a fine screen Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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TFT LCDs Continue to Improve
Source: AUO Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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AMOLED Pixel Efficacy White OLED Pixel Efficacy Target @ 180 lm/W
Source:Universal Display Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Assumptions for Calculating Power
TFT LCD AMOLED Light Source Units LED OLED Efficacy lm/W 175 120 Aperture Sub-pixel fill factor Ratio 70% ~100% Voltage losses in backplane NA 50% Polarizer Efficiency 50% NA Color Filter Efficiency ~50% 0%/60% Backlight Dimming Saving 50% NA IR Losses in Backplane NA 10% Source:AUO/Universal Display Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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32” TV Power Projections Source: AUO/Universal Display/YMR 5 10 15 20
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Display Display + Electronics TV 2013 2016 Power (W) -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Difference TFT LCD TV AMOLED TV Source: AUO/Universal Display/YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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32” Panel ASPs Source: YMR 500 50% 450 45% 400 40% 350 35% 300 30%
ASP (US$) 250 25% Price Premium 200 20% 150 15% 100 10% 50 5% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 32" 1080p CCFL 32" 1080 LED Edge 32" 1080 LED Back 32" OLED 1920 x 1080 OLED Premium vs. Edge OLED Premium vs. Back Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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PMOLED Displays PMOLED Display Status
Category/Growth 2009 2010 2011 2012 Units (000) 77,825 73,952 70,271 66,775 Y/Y Growth Units -5% Revenue US$000) 379,628 332,788 291,728 249,715 Y/Y Growth Revenue -12% -14% PMOLED Display Status The first OLED displays were produced by Pioneer in 1998 At its peak, there were over 20 PMOLED suppliers in US, Europe and Asia Key applications were sub-displays and MP3 players Maximum Size – 2” PMOLEDs are still popular in China Major Suppliers are RiTdisplay Pioneer Visionox TDK PMOLED Manufacturing – Forms the basis of Lighting Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Lighting Source: Ingo Maurer
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LED Replacement -- Fluorescent
Replacement vector: Discounted cash flow for commercial, industrial, outdoor Price differential for residential Other factors – government subsidies, legislative action 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LEDs required per luminaire 69 53 42 35 29 25 LED cost 86 66 53 44 33 28 LED as % of BOM 50% 45% 40% 35% 35% 35% LED luminaire ASP 173 152 139 137 107 91 Luminaire Direct Subsidy Effective LED luminaire ASP 173 152 139 137 107 91 Effective LED repl. Lamp ASP 155 136 125 123 97 82 Electricity cost 45 36 29 25 21 19 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Output (lm) 80 100 120 140 160 180 Power (W) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Lumens per W 80 100 120 140 160 180 Luminaire Efficiency 62% 65% 68% 71% 74% 77% Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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FL Lamp Shipment Forecast and Penetration
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 New Luminaires (m) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500% Total Traditional 1872.6 2178.7 2493.9 2818.1 3149.2 3429.3 3633.8 3813.6 3921.9 4033.5 4148.2 Total SSL 1.8 3.8 5.9 8.6 14.1 80.7 233.4 421.5 692.0 970.7 1258.0 Share SSL 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 2.3% 6.0% 10.0% 15.0% 19.4% 23.3% Growth SSL 109% 58% 44% 65% 472% 189% 81% 64% 40% 30% Growth Traditional 16% 14% 13% 12% 9% 6% 5% 3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Fluorescent vs. LED Source: DOE
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Lighting Current Status
>15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Lighting … OLED Demonstrations ModisTech Challenges are
Acuity Brands Osram Opto Philips Thorne Lighting GE WAC ModisTech Challenges are Get Costs Down to <$100 per meter Get luminance up to 3000 to 4000 cd/m2 (displays at 500 cd/m2) Increase lifetime at 3000 to 4000 cd/m2 from 30k hrs to >50K hrs Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Sample Demonstrators Mitsubishi Panel features: Schedule
Size: 14 cm*14 cm Efficiency (typical): 28 lm/w Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter) Types of lighting: Planar thin OLED Lighting, partially using solution OLED, Color temperature tunable (2700K-6500K), and RGB color tunable Lifetime(LT70, typical): 8000 hrs CRI (typical): 80 (R9=66) OLED lighting panels will use printable OLED as under layer (=Hole injection layer) Schedule Samples – 2010 MP Source: Mitsubishi Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Sample Demonstrators …
Osram Panel features: Size: 88 mm diameter x 2.1 mm Efficiency (typical): 23 lm/w Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter) Color temperature tunable (2580K-3320K), and RGB color tunable Luminance – 1, mA Lifetime(LT70 typical): 8000 hrs CRI (typical): 75 Schedule -- Shipping Source: Osram Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Sample Demonstrators …
Lumiotec Panel features: Size: 14.5 cm diameter x 14.5 cm x 2.3 mm Efficiency (typical): ~25 lm/W Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter) Luminance – 4,000 cd/m2 Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~4,000 4,000 cd/m2 CRI (typical): 80 Schedule -- Shipping Source: Lumiotec Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Sample Demonstrators …
Philips Panel features: Size: 11.9 cm x 3.7 cm x 2.3 mm Efficiency (typical): ~15 lm/W Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter) Color temperature tunable (3,200 K), and RGB color tunable Luminance – 3,000 cd/m2 Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 1,000 cd/m2 CRI (typical): 80 Schedule – Q4’10 Source: Philips Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Sample Prototypes Konica Minolta Panel features: Schedule – 2011
Size: 15.0 cm diameter x 15.0 cm x 1.5 mm Efficiency (typical): ~64 lm/W Types of materials: phosphorescent OLED (as emitter) Luminance – 1,000 cd/m2 Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 1,000 cd/m2 CRI (typical): NA Schedule – 2011 Source: Konica Minolta Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Lighting Primary Market
Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting. Future – 3 to 5 years away Fluorescent Luminaire Replacements Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles Compete with LEDs Source: Osram Opto Source: Lumiotec Source: Lumiotec Source: Acuity Brands Source: General Electric Source: Philips Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Lighting Technology Performance
Characteristic Units Incandescent Fluorescent LED OLED Cool White Efficacy lm/W 17 100 56-79 Warm white 80 Cool White CRI 1 to 100 100 80-85 90 warm White 70-95 Long or Diffuse thin Point Source, high Form Factor Bulb compact gas source, flexible, intensity lamp filled glass tube transparent Lifetime (L70) K hours 1 20 50-70 10-30 Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency Dimming Decreases Decreases Efficiency Increases Increases Noise No Yes No No Switching Lifetime Poor Poor Excellent Excellent Color Tunable No No Yes Yes Source: YMR Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Materials
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2009 Material Performance Small Molecule Lifetime (t50) Efficacy (cd/A) Source Red (PH) K – 28 Universal Green (PH) K – 69 Universal Blue (FL) 25K - 50K Idemitsu @ 1,000 cd/m2 Polymer Lifetime (t50) Efficacy (cd/A) Source Red K – 31 CDT Green K – 50 CDT Blue 8K - 26K CDT Efficacy and Lifetime Increasing at CAGR of 10% to 25% Source: UDC, CDT, Idemitsu Kosan Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Organic Materials Light Emitting Hosts and Dopants
Cambridge Display Technology – Polymers DuPont – Solution Based Small Molecule Phosphorescent Idemitsu Kosan – Small Molecule Fluorescent Merck – Polymers, Small Molecule Universal Display – Small Molecule Phosphorescent DS Himetal -- Small Molecule Injectors/Transporters BASF Dow Chemical H.C. Starck Group LG Chemical Merck Nippon Steel Chemical Co., Ltd. Nissan Chemical Industries Novaled – P/N Doping Plextronics Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Future for OLEDs
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Beyond 2012 SMD looking to 8th Gen (~2200 x 2500) for TV application
Challenges TFT backplane scaling Gen 5.5 is simply and extension of Gen 4 technology May not work for Gen 8 Could require new active material OLED Deposition and Patterning Will require new approach LITI Printing Current Target – 2012 –2013 Panasonic announced 40” AMOLED TV using printing technology by 2012/2013 AUO likely to add capacity for large area in 2012/2013 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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New Technology OLEDs – New Levels of Design
Transparent –Permit > 70% transmissivity, allowing products such as see-through monitors Flexible – conformable, curved, rolled are all possible; e.g. conformed to the body, rolled up displays, lighting in various shapes . Multicolor – Lighting that can change color on demand Source: Sony Source: UDC Source: Osram Source: SMD Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Beyond 2012 … Chinese Will Enter the Market. Companies planning to build AMOLED Fabs include: Visionox Currently producing 600k PMOLEDs on 2nd Gen (370x470) 2011/2012 – Building 4th Gen Fab for AMOLEDS BOE Largest TFT LCD Producer in China Planning 4th Gen AMOLED Fab for small/medium displays Purchased land for the Fab IRICO Assigned by Chinese Government as a major AMOLED Supplier Reportedly received $100M+ Grant from government Seeking to buy 4th Gen Fab from Korea or Japan Tienma – Hired former senior manager from AUO’s AMOLED group Rainbow Group Investing 4.96b yuan Subsidized by Chinese government Planning on a 4th Gen AMOLED Fab Will break ground on a facility in October Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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Summary SMD, LG Display and AUO have strong financial commitments to the production of AMOLED Displays Wild cards for 2012 Panasonic AUO – Large Area (TVs) Sony SMD – 8th Gen China 3 or 4 4th Gen in 2011 Expect triple digit growth for AMOLEDs as SMD expands and LG Display and AUO enter the market PMOLED Model is no longer sustainable; resources could be transferred.sold to OLED lighting OLED lighting is 3-5 years away from MP and could compete with LEDs for replacing fluorescent technology Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
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OLED Summit September 27-29 San Francisco http://www. oledsworldsummit
OLED Summit September San Francisco Register before September 25 and receive a $100 discount Questions:
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