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Canada’s Oil Sands: Peak Oil Insurance Policy Derek Gates, CFA Founder SWM Oil Sands Sector Index TM SWM Canadian Energy Income Index TM
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Cautionary Statement & Disclaimer This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual results may vary significantly due to numerous factors both known and unknown to the author. The information contained in this presentation is not intended to constitute investment advice and investors contemplating investing in the sector should seek professional advice before doing so and must not rely on the assertions, facts, opinions and projections provided in this presentation. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Market information used on this website is obtained from non- proprietary market sources. While we believe this information to be accurate, Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. and its affiliates cannot attest to the validity of information culled from other sources The information provided does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is not lawful to make such an offer. All rights reserved. The contents of the SWM website are protected by applicable copyright laws. No permission is granted to copy, distribute, modify, post or frame any text, graphics, video, audio, software code or user interface design or logos. Unauthorized downloading, re-transmission, storage in any medium, copying, redistribution, reproduction, or republication for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The Sustainable Wealth Management logos and “Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd” are protected under various Trademark Registrations in International Class 36 and are the sole property of Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd.
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Recent Trends in Crude Oil Prices Crude prices have been trading above $40 US/barrel since mid 2004 and a new uptrend has developed 3 year average price is now over $60 US Many Wall Street analysts continue to believe that the current high prices will moderate in the medium to long term
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Oil Sands Sector Index was created when crude oil prices broke through 16 year trading range Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg
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IEO2006 vs. IEO2005: World Oil Prices IEO2006 HistoryProjections IEO2005 Source: EIA, IEO2006 Recent Upward Shift in Future Expected Crude Oil Prices
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Global Energy Demand Trends Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Coal represent the bulk of global energy demand now and well into the future Crude oil demand only slightly moderated after the 25 time run up in the 1970s (from $1.35 to $35+) Alternative sources are not expected to reduce our dependency on the primary fossil fuels over the next 25 years Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., IEA reports
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World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 Oil Natural Gas Coal 33% 27% 9% Renewables Nuclear 26% 5% Share of World Total History Projections 38% 24% 8% 6% Source: EIA, IEO2006
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Source: IEA 2006, Oil Market Report
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Global Oil Supply Outlook Global demand for crude oil was 84.2 Million barrels/day in 2006 and will grow to 85.7 Million by 2007, a 1.8% rise(IEA) Global supply for crude oil was 85.1 Million in 2006 and little growth expected in 2007 (latest IEA Oil Market Report) Producing oil wells are depleting by at least 4 to 8% per year (ExxonMobil estimates) Exploration and Development costs for crude oil are over $30,000 US per boe/day, oil sands and offshore projects are in the $65,000 to $100,000+ range Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., IEA
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Source: IEA 2006, Oil Market Report
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Projected Global Oil Supply and Demand 2007 to 2017 Source: SWM Estimates, ExxonMobil estimates, IEA
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New Global Oil Requirements 2007 - 2017 Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. projections
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Lack of Investment Opportunities Current energy investment is insufficient to replace depleting reserves & match growth in demand At least 80% of proven global oil reserves are controlled by National Oil Companies (NOCs) Canada represents 60% of global reserves that can be invested in privately NOCs are interested in maximizing their profit not maximizing production NOCs have a history of changing tax regimes and appropriating property from multinational oil companies
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Source: IEA, EIA, Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. estimates
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Source: IEA 2006, EIA
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Global Oil Reserves Global oil reserves are concentrated in just a few countries There are 192 countries that consume oil, 54 produce some oil but only 17 can export more than 500,000 barrels/day Of the 10 largest oil reserves in the world, 9 are controlled by national oil companies or protectionist governments Source: IEA 2006, EIA
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Investing in Canada Canada has the world’s second largest oil reserves, 175 Billion barrels of proven and over 315 Billion barrels of proven and probable reserves Geopolitically stable and the largest crude exporter to the US (16% of all US imports) Oil companies are all independently owned Established industry which is open to foreign investment
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Canada’s Oil Sands
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Overview of Canada’s Oil Sands Estimated 1.7 – 2.5 Trillion barrels of bitumen in Alberta, represents about 15 years on Total World needs, currently only 10 to 15% is economically recoverable Represents over half of Canada’s oil production, only 5 Billion barrels recovered so far The industry is established and profitable in Canada for over 40 years and benefits from ultra low royalty tax rates until capital costs are fully recovered Source: Oil Sands Discovery Centre
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Best Place in North America to Invest in Energy Alberta vs. Rest of Canada & US Provincial Sales Tax0% - Lowest in Canada & US Oil Sands Royalty Rate 1% until project recovers all costs, 25% thereafter Provincial Personal & Corporate Tax Lowest in Canada Provincial DebtNone Provincial BudgetSeveral Years of Surplus Government StabilitySame political party for decades Employment Opportunities Lowest Unemployment Rate in Canada Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
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Canada vs. other Major Oil Suppliers Country/Region Current Oil Production US Oil Imports Threats Algeria1,900,000 bbl/d 414,000 bbl/d Armed militants have confronted government forces Iraq2,025,000 bbl/d 516,000 bbl/d 236 attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure, April 03 to May 05 Nigeria2,500,000 bbl/d 1,071,000 bbl/d Income disparity, violent crime, ethnic conflict, suspended oil exports from strikes/protests Russia9,300,000 bbl/d 419,000 bbl/d Uncertain investment climate Saudi Arabia 10,400,000 bbl/d 1,614,000 Terrorist attacks on oil workers, stability of al-Saud ruling family Venezuela2,900,000 bbl/d 1,579,000 bbl/d Political animosity, potential nationalization of oil industry Canada3,047,000 bbl/d 1,742,000 bbl/d Largest source of US oil imports, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Mexico Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
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Reserves Production Rate (boe/d) Years of Production at Current Rates Current Reserves under development 83.9 Billion boe 1,075,000 boe/day217 Total Proven Reserves 174 Billion boe1,075,000 boe/day452 Total Proven & Probable Reserves 305 Billion boe1,075,000 boe/day788 Production to continue for 100+ years Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
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Canada’s Oil Sands Oil Sands production is expected to grow from the current 1 MM boe/day to over 4 MM boe/day by 2020 Canada is projected to be the 3 rd largest oil exporter by 2020 behind Russia and Saudi Arabia US will continue to rely heavily on Canadian oil exports Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., company reports
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Planned Oil Sands Production Growth to 2020 Source: Company reports, SWM estimates
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US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast
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Cdn based producers 2015 production 25,000 boe/day % focus on Oil sands must exceed 35% based on expected production 35% based on expected production 10 years from now Market cap to exceed 500 million Market liquidity $2MM shares Five The Five Key Factors SWM Oil Sands Index Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
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Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg SWM Oil Sands Index vs. S&P US Energy Select Sector Index Over 213% higher returns 36 months
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Comparison to Existing Energy Indices Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg As of June 30, 2007 SWM Oil Sands Sector Index S&P US Energy Index S&P TSX Capped Energy Index Return since June 2004 (USD) 335.5%127.9%176.8% # of Companies163265 Top Ten Holdings (% of Total Value)76.9%68.1%70.5% Largest Position10.6%21.0%14.2% Smallest Position3.1%0.6%0.1% % of Index in Oil Sands Producers 100%50.9%70.9%
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SWM Oil Sands Index vs. Crude Oil vs. ExxonMobil (XOM) Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg Over 246% higher returns 36 months
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Comparison to ExxonMobil Source: Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd., Bloomberg, Company annual reports (June 30, 2007) Oil Sands Sector Index Compared to ExxonMobil Return Since Inception (06/04) in US$ 335.5%88.9% Current P/E16.613.4 Total Market Cap (US$)$294 Billion$511 Billion Current Production (million boe/d) 3.64.1 Expected Production Growth 12.4%/yr4%/yr Reserve Life Index65+ minimum15.4 Proven Reserves (billions of boe) 8523
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Investment Timing is Attractive Source: Bloomberg, Sustainable Wealth Management, Ltd. Recently took out 2006 double top at 340, support currently at 320 to 340 range.
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Contact Information Derek Gates, CFA, CIM, CFP, FCSI President & CIO Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd. Suite 224, 222 – 16 th Ave NE Calgary Alberta T2E 1J8 dgates@swmindex.com Phone 403 454-0881 Fax 403 454-0884
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