1. Nordic meeting for trade in goods and services 16-18 September, Thorshavn, Far Oe Ger Stam 28th of August 2014 Transition to BPM6: the Dutch case

2. Outline BPM6 transition SN –Who involved, how organized? –ITGS issues: relative modest change –ITSS issues: drastic change ‐Improved and altered processes in-, through- and output (big bang) –Actual issues 2

3. 3 Who involved, how organized? –Steering group National accounts, Central Bank, ITGS and ITSS: ESA2010 & BPM6, resulting in co-operation on various data processes –Revision NA with new basic year 2010 –Project ITGS and ITSS (organisationally closer related within SN)

4. 4 Who involved, how organized? –Project ITSS & ITGS ‐Comply with all relevant regulations for International Trade in Services (ITS) and International Trade in Goods (ITG) ‐Provide all stakeholders with the necessary information ‐Methodological improvements ‐ESA2010 already implemented in 2011 for the Structural Business Surveys and Balance-sheet Survey: consistency aimed with ITGS/ITSS for large enterprises

5. 5 ITGS issues Data collection ITGS not fundamentally changed: –still based upon customs information and own questionnaire on goods crossing the border ESA2010/BPM6: corrections necessary for: goods crossing the border but no economic ownership transfer from/to NL goods not crossing the border but economic ownership transfer from/to NL

6. 6 ITGS issues BPM6 urges for economic in stead of juridical ownership: –Goods sent abroad for processing ‐excluded from im- and exports ITGS –Production Abroad –production under foreign enterprise control in NL is not trade –Exports of goods previously imported / goods in quasi- transit

7. 7 ITGS issues Altered ITGS data processes: –Goods procured in ports by carriers Import newly estimated Improved estimation method for export –Merchanting (incl. via customs warehouse ) Part of ITGS now Data collection by ITSS

8. 8 ITSS issues Altered in-, through- and output processes: –Lot of new and changed ITSS items in BPM6 methodology –New survey sampling design SME (use of VAT-registration) –New questionnaire (design) –Abolishment X12-ARIMA estimations: replaced by own data collection or applying new external sources –Surveys of the Dutch Central Bank (SPE and MFI data)

9. 9 ITSS issues Altered in-, through- and output processes: –Travel adapted for business travel, border & seasonal workers, health & education related travel etc. –CIF/FOB correction for ITGS maintained, but new approach ITSS for ‘FIT adjustment’ (Freight Insurance and Transport Adjustment) – Amendment ICT systems –New data dissemination scheme

10. ITSS issues: new & changed service items Changed or new ITSS items in BPM6 (some examples) –New classification for services of manufacturing services and maintenance & repair –The sales of research and development such as patents and copyrights: treated now as produced assets and included in services. –Financial services: ‐‘Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured’ (FISIM) to be recorded as a service. Transactions between banks are removed, so lower values than before and ‘ Buying and selling spreads’ added. –‘Services between affiliated enterprises, n.i.e.’ removed 10

11. 11 Checking source data Population data Annual ITS Business Register process Quarterly Streamlined ITS process ITS- loading and roughly checking Imputation Weighing and additional estimation SME Detailing Automatic process Primary source data LE and SME Secondary source data Macro-editing (tool: Macroview) ITS– loading and basic compilation Process Output Quarterly and annual ITS Output process Direct data collection SN External sources

12. 12 ITSS issues ITS: questionnaires Changed questionnaire design : LE and SME: –Use 6-digit Eurostat codes for services –Service category descriptions –Switching board old/new services (for transition) –Questionnaire design SME –Communication SPE and MFI: –CB: adaption of questionnaires and explanations, including delineation of the enterprise population with SN

13. ITSS issues: SME sample design 13 Design of population and sample 2014: –Based upon the GBR: 1.4 mln enterprises –Gross selection 261.000 enterprises detected from various sources (most important are): VAT services and merchanting 2013 q1-3 en 2012 q4 (in total 239.000 enterprises!) International payments data 2013 q1-3 and 2012 q4 Positive response SME from year 2013 q 1-3 en 2012 q4

14. ITSS issues: SME sample design 14 Design of population and sample 2014: –Reduction of the gross selection by excluding probably fractional ITS-traders using various criteria (80% of the enterprises and only 6% of im- en export) –Net population frame: 51 700 enterprises probably active in ITS (= sample frame)

15. ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS Design of population and sample 2014: –Reduced number of 39 strata by aggregated combination: ‐SIC code of enterprise (19 groups) divided into 3 groups: Integral part of largest expected ITSS sized enterprises ( ≥ 10 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data or otherwise selected) Large expected ITSS sized enterprises (≥ 1 mln. € im ports + exports, based upon VAT data and –if present- ITSS data ) Other, expected smaller ITSS sized enterprises 15

16. ITSS issues: SME sample design ITSS Design of population and sample 2014: –Allocation SME (how many units are how sampled): ‐5 000 enterprises sampled (by use of Neyman allocation) out of almost 52 000 enterprises (= net population) ‐mean sample ratio is 1 out of 10 enterprises ‐varies over strata from 1:1 (complete covered stratum) to 1: 47 (stratum ‘Trade (SIC code), small as for ITSS') 16

17. ITSS issues: synthetic estimations diminished Abolition ITSS X12-Arima estimations (time series estimations) –Financial services –Insurance services –Trade related services –Government services –Merchanting (now positive & negative exports of goods) –Major change for insurances services. Mix of SN & CB data of insurance companies for exports of all kinds of insurances. –Financial services will be mix of direct SN/CB data collection. Partly new synthetic estimation for ‘Buying & selling spreads’. 17

18. ITSS issues: IT systems adapted Three IT systems adapted (input, throughput, analysis) –Design and building changes in the system, by special (SN) IT department and related ITS business workers –Adjustment of the analysis tool Macro-view queries to the new classification. –Conversion of historical data in throughput system (2009-2013) needed, esp. for editing purposes. 18

19. Actual issues –Further efforts needed for coherence between related ITGS and ITSS items –New levels of outcomes ITSS –Back-casting and publication ITSS Publication of NA, BoP, ITGS and ITSS on different moments and with different formats and content 19

20. Questions, remarks or suggestions? 20