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The Challenge of Projecting Future Sea Levels in the Chesapeake Bay Region Donald F. Boesch February 18, 2014 Severn River Association
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MVN RSM Program 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment climatechange.maryland.gov
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MVN RSM Program Climate Action Plans climatechange.maryland.gov
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MVN RSM Program Updating SLR Projections climatechange.maryland.gov
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MVN RSM Program Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 meters Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci Tide gauges Paleo-reconstruction
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MVN RSM Program Global Mean Sea Level by Satellite Altimeter sealevel.colorado.edu
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MVN RSM Program What Causes Sea Level To Change?
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MVN RSM Program World Ocean is Warming
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MVN RSM Program 9 9 Velicogna 2009 GRL Polar Ice Sheet Loss
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MVN RSM Program NRC Global Sea-Level Rise Projections National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present and Future. global mean sea level rise from 2000 best estimates
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MVN RSM Program Fingerprints of Polar Ice Sheet Melting West Antarctica Greenland
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MVN RSM Program Do You Have A Sinking Feeling? Florida Maryland New York New England Early Interglacial Late Interglacial The glacial forebulge collapses and land surface subsides
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MVN RSM Program Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion University J. Geophysical Research 118:685 Gulf Stream strength Tide gauge level trends
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MVN RSM Program How Much Will Sea Level Rise in Maryland?
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MVN RSM Program Sea-Level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100 Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867. ending all emissions in 2016 stabilizing at 2ºC
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MVN RSM Program Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5 th Assessment It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20 th century. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. www.ipcc.ch
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MVN RSM Program How Much Has It Warmed? www.ipcc.ch about 0.9°C or 1.6°F Global average land and ocean temperature
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MVN RSM Program How Much Will it Warm? www.ipcc.ch Global average surface temperature 7.2°F 3.6°F It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit. RCP8.5 = ‘business as usual’ continued growth in emissions RCP2.6 = rapid reductions in GHG emissions to 0 by 2070
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MVN RSM Program How Much Will the Seas Rise? www.ipcc.ch Unlike temperature, sea level rise does not stabilize during century
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MVN RSM Program Elicitation of Estimates by Experts
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MVN RSM Program Expert elicitation Expert elicit. Expert elicitation Unrestrained emissions Drastic reductions 83% 17% 83% 17% 95% 5% 95% 5% IPCC NRC 2012 2100 2050 0.5 1.0 1.5 NRC 2012 0 Global Mean Sea-Level Rise (meters) Unrestrained emissions Drastic reductions
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MVN RSM Program Maryland 2100 2050 1 2 3 4 5 Maryland Relative Sea-Level Rise (feet) New Jersey Miller et al. 2013. AGU Earth’s Future
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MVN RSM Program Consequences of Sea-Level Rise Light blue Light blue: salt marshes Greens Greens: < 2 m, suscept- ible to innundation Orange-yellow Orange-yellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge Greater Bay volume, ocean influence
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MVN RSM Program Tidal Wetlands and Sea-Level Rise Kirwan & Megonigal 2013. Nature 404:53 Human activities have significant consequences for stability
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Questions or Comments? boesch@umces.edu www.umces.edu/people/president @DonBoesch
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