1. FORMER (?) SOVIET UNION

2. IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY Best Case Scenario

3. IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY Size Type of Landmass Water Worst Case Scenario Transportation Borders “Enemies”

4. Russia’s Core

5. RUSSIA: It all comes down to SECURITY

6. Internal/Domestic Internal Dissent & Revolt Infiltration & Color Revolutions Islam, militancy & Secession

7. External: Creating Buffers

8. External: Expanding Buffers

9. The Russian Cycle: The Dark Rider Theory

10. Catastrophe

11. White Rider

12. Dark Rider (? )

13. Undermining it all…. Demographics DemographicsDemographics Birth/Death ratesBirth/Death rates EthnicityEthnicity DistributionDistribution EmigrationEmigration ImmigrationImmigration DrugsDrugs Disease (TB/HIV)Disease (TB/HIV)

14. DEMOGRAPHICS

15. Populations MUSLIMS –1980 – 10% of the population (in Russia proper) –2007 – 12.5% of the population in Russia –2020 - ~20% of the population in Russia HIV/AIDS –Government reports 400,000 living with HIV –UNAIDS estimates it is over 900,000 TB –Russia is ranked 12 th in the world for TB cases –TB cases have tripled since the fall of the Soviet Union

16. Doesn’t mean Russia won’t go out swinging…

17. RUSSIA’S Six Pillars of Power Political Social Natural Resources Security Services Military Geographic

18. POLITICAL & SOCIAL CONSOLIDATION OUT: The Family The Oligarchs IN: Nashi Putin Worship United Russia “Democratic” political parties

19. Putin, Inc.

20. ECONOMIC CONSOLIDATION Economic Security over Economic Sense Western System – About profitability –Money is an end –Crush inefficiency –Protect the system Eastern System – About social stability –Crush unemployment –Us money as a political resource for non-financial ends –Minimize disruption Russian System – Think the Godfather –All about control, which equals security –Screw the people –Screw efficiency –Criminal mentality –Economics = Politics

21. Energy Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves, second largest coal reserves & eighth largest oil reserves. Russia is the largest natural gas and second largest oil producer And its energy network is the largest (and most complicated) in the world…

22. Russian Pipeline Systems

24. Rise of Gazprom

25. Return of the Security State

26. MILITARY

27. GEOGRAPHIC: Consolidating the Buffers

28. EURO-FSU: Baltics, Belarus, Moldova & Ukraine The Baltic Problems…

29. What the hell is Moldova?

30. Belarus

31. Ugh…Ukraine

32. Caucasus

33. Georgia

34. Armenia and Azerbaijan

35. THE STANS

36. Competition for the Stans Russia China West Iran Turkey

37. What’s so cool about the Stans?

38. Anything else cool?

39. Wrap-Up… Russia’s geopolitical imperative is: security –Internally through consolidation and terror –Externally through expansion and creation of a buffer Which ripples and dominates the rest of the former Soviet States and the rest of the world. This is evident through each of Russia’s cycles Russia has a myriad of tools to achieve this This is most likely Russia’s last run before a new cycle begins….

40. QUESTIONS??? (dare you to ask them…)