1. Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Automóvil jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis in two transportation corridors Blanca Arenas Ramírez

2. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors 2 Contens ۞ INTERURBAN ROADS OF RCE NETWORK Methodology developed to analyze the influence of traffic conditions: volume and traffic composition, on accidents on different types of interurban roads belonging to the Spanish network, by applying negative binomial models. ۞ HEAVY GOODS VEHICLES TRAFFIC EFFECTS ۞ SPANISH FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS

3. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Data AP: toll motorways AV: roads with limited access and free motorways C: single carriageway roads DC: two undivided dual carriageways Road types:

4. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Data

5. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Data

6. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Data

7. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Data Increasing trend in goods traffic, Increase in mobility on the Spanish network and, Greater severity of accidents with the involvement of HGV on interurban roads

8. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Methodology Expression for the regression model: General expression for the estimated model: : Accident rate : Exposure

9. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Methodology The most general expression for the predicted number of accident:

10. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Results Expressions of the accident rates by road types (i) and segment (j) are calculated to be:

11. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Accident rates λ h by road type Accident rates λ h a by road type [IP 95%] GlobalAPAVDCC 0.2640.1040.1500.2090.290 IP (Λ h ) [0; 1.001][0; 0.396][0; 0.567][0; 0.804][0; 1.098] 0.2590.1060.1620.2130.324 Differences 2.13%-1.60%-7.65%-1.92%-10.37% Results

12. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Scenarios of AADTHGV changes with and without any change to total vehicular traffic intensity (AADT): ADDT changes AADTHGV changes a: -10% b: 0%c: 10% o o -20%20% A: -10%AaAbAc B: -20%BaBbBc Scenarios

13. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Freight transportation corridor: MB

14. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Freight transportation corridor: SB

15. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Freight transportation corridors

16. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Freight transportation corridors

17. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors HGVs subtruction scenarios in MB corridor Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Aa, Ab and Ac scenarios, over the MB corridor: Scenarios Ai, i = a,b,c over the MB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔA T %) Road typeAaAbAc AP -0.81%0.81% (-15.43%)(-14.79%)(-14.16%) AV -1.05%1.05% (-13.58%)(-12.72%)(-11.86%) C -2.59%2.59% (18.18%)(20.96%)(23.72%) MB corridor -1.09%1.09% (-11.20%)(-10.22%)(-9.24%)

18. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors HGVs subtruction scenarios in MB corridor Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Ba, Bb and Bc scenarios, over the MB corridor: Scenarios Bi, i = a,b,c over the MB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔA T %) Road typeBaBbBc AP -1.61%1.61% (-16.38%)(-15.11%)(-13.85%) AV -2.11%2.11% (-14.48%)(-12.76%)(-11.04%) C -5.17%5.17% (16.83%)(22.46%)(28.06%) MB corridor -2.18%2.18% (-12.15%)(-10.19%)(-8.23%)

19. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors HGVs subtruction scenarios in SB corridor Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Aa, Ab and Ac scenarios, over the SB corridor: Scenarios Ai, i = a,b,c over the SB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔA T %) Road typeAaAbAc AP -0.59%0.59% (-9.86%)(-9.38%)(-8.89%) AV -0.77%0.77% (-8.64%)(-8.27%)(-7.79%) C -0.85%0.85% (6.52%)(7.26%)(7.85%) SB corridor -0.73%0.73% (-4.36%)(-3.85%)(-3.34%)

20. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors HGVs subtruction scenarios in SB corridor Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents in the Ba, Bb and Bc scenarios, over the SB corridor: Scenarios Bi, i = a,b,c over the SB corridor. Variation in vk exposure and the number of accidents Δvk%; (ΔA T %) Road typeBaBbBc AP -1.18%1.18% (-10.53%)(-9.56%)(-8.60%) AV -1.55%1.55% (-9.04%)(-8.31%)(-7.35%) C -1.69%1.69% (6.42%)(7.91%)(9.09%) SB corridor -1.46%1.46% (-4.73%)(-3.71%)(-2.69%)

21. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Results in MB corridor by HGVs subtruction

22. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Results in MB corridor by HGVs subtruction

23. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Results in SB corridor by HGVs subtruction

24. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors Results in SB corridor by HGVs subtruction

25. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors CONCLUSIONS For all the scenarios taken into account, on the high capacity roads (AP, AV) there is a significant reduction in the total number of accidents, which varies between 16.38% for the Ba scenario of the MB corridor and 7.35% for the Bc scenario of the SB corridor. Likewise, on the sections of single carriageway roads (C) there are significant increases in the total number of traffic accidents, whose maximum and minimum values are: 28.06% for the Bc scenario on the MB corridor and 6.52% for the Aa scenario on the SB corridor.

26. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors CONCLUSIONS In all cases a reduction in the total number of accidents would occur as a result in the drop in the number of heavy goods transport vehicles (%HGVs). This drop varies between 46 for the SB corridor Bc scenario and 141 for the MB corridor Aa scenario. In all cases, the higher the traffic intensity (AADT), as a result of the induction of other vehicular traffic, the higher the number of accidents is, due to the increase in exposure. This effect is greater on single carriageway road segments compared to high capacity roads

27. jueves, 14 de mayo de 2015 The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents: the analysis In two freight transportation corridors Contents Methodology Scenarios Results in corridor Conclusions Results Freight Transp. corridors CONCLUSIONS The model shows itself to be a useful tool for evaluating the effects of modal transfer policies between road and rail or other forms of transport. This type of analysis provides objective elements for evaluating policies that encourage modal shift and road safety enhancement.