1. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries Overview and Brazil, China, and Turkey Case Studies William Chandler Battelle Memorial Institute Side Event – COP 8 October 29, 2002

2. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ A Diverse Set of Countries  Brazil  Most populous nation in South America  Heavy reliance on hydropower, biomass  World’s largest expanse of rainforest  China  World’s most populous nation  Heavy reliance on coal  Growing economy while reducing energy intensity

3. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ A Diverse Set of Countries  India  Population will soon surpass China’s  Very low per-capita income  Economy and energy demand growing quickly  Mexico  Major oil exporter  Member of OECD  Integrating economy with North American market

4. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ A Diverse Set of Countries  South Africa  Largest GHG emitter in Africa  Post-Apartheid political and economic reforms  World’s fourth largest producer of coal  Turkey  Transit route for Caspian Sea oil and gas  Member of OECD  Rapidly rising energy demand/GHG intensity

5. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ A Diverse Set of Countries

6. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Case Studies  Energy/Emissions Profile  Mitigating Measures  Potential Mitigation Opportunities

7. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Why China Matters to Climate World’s largest population and second largest GHG emissions Average annual GDP growth of 9.2% since 1979 Coal meets over 60% of primary energy demand; large reserves Incomplete economic reform Influence on Non-Annex I members

8. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China

9. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China Profile GDP projected to grow by 5-7% annually through 2020 Population growth down to 0.7% in 2002 Expected structural shift from agriculture to services

10. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China Profile Nearly 400,000 premature deaths resulting from air pollution in China Up to 8 percent of GDP lost due to environmental degradation 40 percent of land area affected by acid deposition Sulfur and nitrogen oxides remain a problem Very rapid growth in transportation emissions expected Source: World Bank (1998), PNNL (1998).

11. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China  Mitigating Measures:  Slower population growth  Economic/energy reforms  Closure of small, inefficient coal mines  Efficiency improvements  Afforestation Estimated Mitigation: 250 MtC/year

12. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Energy Price Profile in China Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2001.

13. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Has Chinese Coal Use Really Declined?

14. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China  Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow 2-3X by 2030  Mitigation opportunities:  Continued economic restructuring  Efficiency technology  Fuel switching from coal to gas  Expanded use of renewables Mitigation Potential: 800 MtC (30-50% of projected emissions) in 2030

15. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China’s Mitigation Opportunities Successful transition from “shortage” to demand-driven economy Market prices discipline consumer behavior, but investment decisions are not transparent “Policy” loans/unemployment Transition in R&D activities Enforcement of legislation

16. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China’s Emerging Gas Sector More domestic gas than once thought Infrastructure expanding rapidly Incentives needed for end-users Imports remain important variable

17. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China

18. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ China - Conclusions China has lowered emissions significantly –For economic and environmental reasons Economic reform, efficiency and natural gas policies key to future mitigation Desire for improved local environmental drives co-benefit activities Need for stronger partnerships –Business, environmental, national security

19. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Brazil  Energy/Emissions:  Two-thirds of GHG emissions from land use change, primarily deforestation  Nearly half of energy from hydropower, biomass  Industrialization, growth raising emissions, reliance on fossil fuels

20. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Brazil

21. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++  Mitigating Measures:  Use of ethanol, sugar-cane bagasse  Natural gas cogeneration  Aggressive energy conservation  Tax incentive for small cars Estimated Mitigation: 10 MtC/year

22. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Brazil

23. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++  Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow 250% by 2020  Mitigation opportunities:  Expanded use of ethanol, bagasse, natural gas, wind power, and small-scale hydro  Increased energy conservation Mitigation Potential: 45 MtC (20% of projected emissions) in 2020

24. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Turkey  Energy/Emissions  One of world’s fastest growing energy markets  Major pipeline projects to establish Eurasian Energy Corridor  GHG intensity higher than most developed countries  Industry growing rapidly, but remains inefficient, under government control

25. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Turkey

26. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++  Mitigation measures:  Price reforms driven by European integration  Efficiency measures  Five-Year Development Plan:  Privatize energy production, distribution  Increase use of natural gas, renewables  Increase energy efficiency Estimated Mitigation: NA

27. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Turkey  Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow nearly 4-fold by 2020  Mitigation opportunities:  Privatization of industry  Elimination of energy subsidies  More efficient power transmission  Increased use of natural gas, biomass Mitigation Potential: 10 MtC (9% of projected emissions) in 2010

28. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Turkey

29. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Conclusions  Efforts over past 30 years have reduced collective emissions of the six countries by 288 MtC/year  Without these efforts, their emissions would be 18% higher  For perspective, under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries would have to reduce emissions by 392 MtC from projected levels in 2010

30. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Conclusions  Most mitigating efforts have common drivers:  Economic growth  Energy security  Local environmental protection

31. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Conclusions  Common barriers to future mitigation:  Lack of information  Lack of capacity  Market distortion  Lack of technology and investment

32. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ Conclusions  Policies can advance climate protection and development priorities by:  Supporting continued market reforms  Mobilizing investment  Supporting capacity-building  Promoting efforts to improve air quality, land conservation

33. ++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++ For More Information www.pewclimate.org