1. Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil” University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013 Embrapa Strategic Intelligence System Geraldo B. Martha Jr. Coordinator – Agropensa System Deputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and Training Brazilian Agriculture: Development and Future Prospects

2. Outline 1960s – early 1970s Present Future Dependency Policies Cometitiveness Innovations Sustainability Institutions Intensification

3. Overcoming Food Insecurity and Achieving Competitiveness in the Agricultural Sector

4. It is well accepted that sustainability’s dimensions – technical, economic, social and environmental – should be pursued; It is well accepted that sustainability’s dimensions – technical, economic, social and environmental – should be pursued; Sustainability dimensions’ have strong interdependence linkages and, ideally, should be simultaneously met. In other words, to focus in a unique dimension will not reflect the multiple dimensions of sustainability. Agricultural production systems should design strategies that return win-win situations. When this ideal condition is not an option small loss-big gain situations should be targeted. Sustainability

5. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Technical Dimension)

6. Brazil197019751980198519962006 Product index100139173211244343 Input index100122142149137153 TFP100114122142178224 Land productivity 100135162196230324 Labor productivity 100129158185241348 Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010). Total Factor Productivity in Brazilian Agriculture

7. Yield growth rates in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

8. Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

9. Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013). “Productivity explained 79% of the growth in Brazilian beef production in the 1950 – 2006 period. The land-saving effect arising from these productivity gains was 525 million ha!”

10. Intensity of agricultural research investments ASTI/CGIAR (2012). Development of a science-based tropical agriculture

11. Roles and contribution of agricultural research Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector Prioridades Main Limitations Removed by Public R&D in Brazil Main Limitations Removed by Public R&D in Brazil Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices “Tropicalization” of crops and animal production systems Transformation of acidic, poor soils into highly productive ag. land Courtesy M.Lopes (2013).

12. Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian agriculture Pereira et al. (2012). In 2006, the Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian beef and milk production was around 40%

13. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Socio-Economic Dimension) The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Socio-Economic Dimension)

14. Evolution of food basket prices in São Paulo, Brazil (1975=100, real prices, Sept.2013) Data from DIEESE, deflator IGP-DI (FGV), calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

15. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Environmental Dimension) The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Environmental Dimension)

16. Data from INPE. Evolution of the deforestation rates

17. Natural Cerrado Water body Crops Cultivated pastures Urban areas Reforestation ~ 85% of the Amazon Biome and ~ 55 % of the Cerrado Biome are still covered with the original vegetation ! Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008 Biome conservation in Brazil

18. Protected areas and biodiversity potential in selected South America countries “100” is the maximum biodiversity potential. Data from the World Bank.

19. Innovations Connected to Value Chains 19

20. A future intensive in knowledge and relationships; A future intensive in knowledge and relationships; Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,…); Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,…); Future prospects A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate change, biological security, …); A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate change, biological security, …); A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses; A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses; Adapted from M.Lopes (2013).

21. Flow in agricultural value chain Innovation flow and Embrapa’s macro-themes Markets, policies and rural development Production Systems New sciences: biotechnology, nanotechnology, geotechnology Source: Embrapa/Agropensa Natural Resources and Climate change Food security, nutrition and health Agroindustry and biomass technology and Green chemistry Animal and Plant Health and Safety in the value chain Automation, Precision Ag. & ICT Macro-themes improve the focus and the speed of the intelligence process (collection, organization, analysis) as well as the diffusion of information and knowledge.

22. Brazilian agribusiness composition v. possibilities to aggregate value USP/ESALQ/Cepea (2013), elaboration G.B. Martha.

23. Concluding Remarks

24. There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance; There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance; The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; Concluding remarks

25. Martha Jr.(2013). Limits for the expansion of supply, if 2013 crop area is maintained Concluding remarks

26. Martha Jr.(2013). Concluding remarks Pastoral systems intensification and land-use

27. There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance; There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance; Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment need, capacity strengthening, adoption; Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment need, capacity strengthening, adoption; The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; Concluding remarks

28. Disseminate information (+ ICT), capacity strengthening, TT

29. Embrapa Strategic Intelligence System "Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of Brazilian Agriculture" Thank You !