1. Effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystem & associated social & economic considerations in the Yakima River Basin. Alec G. Maule, Supervisory Research Physiologist USGS, WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory Cook, Washington

2. Alec Maule – Project Manager DeWayne Cecil – Chief Science Applications, Climate Change Mark Mastin & Frank Voss (WaWSC) - Physical models Jim Hatten & Tom Batt – Habitat criteria, GIS, DSS Matt Mesa & Jill Hardiman – Bioenergetics Pat Connolly & Russ Perry – Fish pop analyses, Cohort survival Jessica Montag (Ft Collins, CO) — Sociologist Lynne Koontz (Ft Collins, CO) – Economist Chris Lynch, (BOR-Yakima) - Water management (RiverWare) David Graves — Tributary Water Temps Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Linking models to predict CC effects: Yakima River Basin Social & Economic analyses

3. Yakima River Eastern Washington State 6200 mi² 100 in / yr 6 in / yr

4. Change Scenarios Early 2020- 2030 Base 1981 - 2005 Mid 2040 2050 Watershed Model RiverWare Temperature Model Hydrodynamic Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Climate Change in the Yakima Bovee et al. 2008 Mastin 2008 Bureau of Reclamation

5. Change Scenarios Early 2020- 2030 Base 1988 - 2006 Mid 2040 2050 Watershed Model RiverWare Temperature Models Hydrodynamic Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Bioenergetics Model Growth, Development Migration, Reproduction Cohort Survival Model (Population) Interactions (Community) Global Climate Change Decision Support System Social & Economic Analyses

6. Karen Jenni & Tim Nieman, DA Consultants Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Decision Analysis (DA) Social & Economic Analyses DA Stakeholders Workshop – July 2009; 20+ attendees Results: Shifted species of concern -- steelhead Added temp modeling tributaries & lower river Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Developed a conceptual model of Yakima Basin Irrigation Districts Local elected officials Fed, State & Tribal F &W Fed & State Water Managers

7. Stakeholders’ Workshop Conceptual Model

8. Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin

9. Sunnyside Diversion Dam Gap Wapato Changes in Habitat Area by Reach

10. Baseline & Future Hydrographs GapWapato Baseflow Coho salmon fry rearing

11. Baseline vs. Future Habitat Estimates Gap Wapato Coho Fry Habitat (hectares) Current 2020-2029 2040-2049 Flows – decreasing; Lower in Wapato, Higher in Gap Habitat based on water velocity and depth per Bovee et al. (2008)

12. Sensitivity Analysis Decrease in flows; flow higher in Gap, lower in Wapato GapWapato Current Regulation Current Regulation “Flip-Flop” Water Flows “Flip-Flop” Water Flows Different Geomorphology

13. Habitat Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Social & Economic Analyses 1.Intro, Stakeholders’ workshop and conceptual model 2.Mainstem temperature modeling 3.Tributary temperature modeling 4.Temperature and bioenergetics of juvenile steelhead and Chinook salmon 5.Hydrograph and available species- & life-stage-specific habitat 6.Estimating the effects of CC on the social & economic life of the Yakama Tribe Chapters

14. Where a River Takes You: Climate Change Effects on Social Values of Tribal Aquatic Systems Jessica M Montag, Ph.D. Ft Collins Science Center Katie Swan, Intern Yakama Nation

15. Tribal Well-Being

21. Questions?

23. Modeling CC in the Yakima River Basin