1. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 1 SACN Seminar on sustainable PT SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS Rapid rail project in Gauteng Romano Del Mistro

2. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 2 Background Downside –The “Apartheid” train? Versus Soweto line? –Passengers and mode –Long distance travel Upside –Civil engineering –Communication –Political will –The improved image of PT –The capacity –The project In a 100 years time? What would we have done without the Gautrain? What will the Gautrain be doing without energy?

3. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 3 Background: Presentation The Gautrain project Sustainability –Comparison of alternatives –Improving sustainability The real issue

4. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 4 The Gautrain project: Route Pretoria – Johannesburg –62 km –7 stations –45 000 one way daily passengers (??) (120 000 passengers per day by 2010 ) –11 km of tunnel –7,5 km of bridges –R7 billion at 2001 values. –160 km/hr (40min Pta- Jhb) Marlboro – Oliver Tambo International Airport –13 km –3 stations

5. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 5 The Gautrain project: Socio economics: GGP and Jobs GGP –An increase of between 0,4% and 0,5% in the GGP. –Operation and maintenance expenditure of R325 million per year –R4 billion (60% of budget) to be spent on infrastructure (2002) Jobs –43 000 jobs being created during the construction phase To date … ……more than 6 700 local direct jobs and an estimated total of more than 36 200 direct, indirect and induced jobs. –40 000 jobs could be created as a result of the economic activity related to the Gautrain

6. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 6 The Gautrain project: Socio economics: Jobs and training Ekurhuleni plant to build Gautrain carriages 29 July 2008 Gautrain's 81 carriages will be assembled UCW plant in Nigel Investing about R15 million in their Nigel assembly plant More than R5 million of that in training," Plant would employ 85 people, 17 of whom are currently in Derby Gpg.gov.za

7. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 7 The Gautrain project: Feeder services

8. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 8 The Gautrain project: The project

9. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 9 The Gautrain project: The project

10. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 10 The Gautrain project: The project

11. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 11 The Gautrain project: The project

12. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 12 Sustainability Comparison Generic and Gautrain –Total cost –Capital cost –Ongoing costs –Job creation –Energy Improving sustainability –Passenger volume –Creating more jobs –Energy

13. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 13 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Gautrain –Feeder 10km –Distributor 5km “Direct” –Direct 40 + 2km

14. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 14 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Peak hour boardings and alightings For feeders and distributors to Gautrain

15. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 15 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Peak OD matrix For direct services of alternatives

16. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 16 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Capital cost Ever increasing costs of mega projects cpi actual Capital cost / trip –R30 000 000 000 @ 12% for 20 years = R4 billion/yr –For 100 000 pax/day over 300 days/yr = R133,88/trip 44 trips = R5891/month –@ 8% for 200 000/day = R51.93/trip (R2240/month)

17. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 17 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Capital cost Gautrain much more costly

18. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 18 Sustainability: Generic line haul Total cost / passenger

19. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 19 Sustainability: Generic line haul Total cost / passenger – excluding way capital

20. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 20 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Total annual cost Gautrain system is 3 times more costly

21. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 21 Sustainability: Generic line haul “ Operating” cost / passenger

22. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 22 Sustainability: Gautrain specific “ Operating” cost Gautrain system 13% less costly

23. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 23 Sustainability: Generic line haul Energy consumption / passenger

24. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 24 Sustainability: Gautrain specific Energy consumption Gautrain system uses 5% less energy

25. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 25 Improving Sustainability: Passenger volumes –More congestion –Petrol price –Land use policy –Shorten trips More passengers; less vehicles Increase passengers – Gauteng road network – R55 billion?

26. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 26 Improving Sustainability: Creating more jobs- Feeder services Proposed fleet –210 minibuses = + 672 jobs @3.2/veh) Proposed fleet –97 35-seater buses; –21 55-seater buses; –7 articulated buses. –125 buses in total = + 400 jobs @ 3.2/veh )

27. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 27 Improving Sustainability: Energy Future Affordable energy? –½ of peak supply? –Oil future: 2025 – Uranium future: 2070 – Coal future: 2100

28. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 28 Improving Sustainability: Reducing travel What is the saving in cost from reducing travel? What is the benefit that is lost: –To the individual? –To the employer? –To the country? Restructuring land use –Inducing the private sector Access to choice “Benefit” Access to choice Cost Preparing to be competitive when energy costs are very high ?

29. SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN 29 Conclusions: The Gautrain project Fait accompli –A civil engineering feat –Public transport image –Political will –Environmental benefits –Competitive after sunk costs –Best use of R30 billion? –Opportunity costs Improve sustainability –Increase passengers Reduce cost Reduce trip length?? Effect of fuel price More freeways? –Create more jobs Recap minibuses as feeders –Restructure land use Induce private sector But we must also prepare for very high energy costs!