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10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF1 Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for a Mw 7.8 Southern San Andreas Earthquake: ShakeOut Robert W. Graves (URS Corporation)

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Presentation on theme: "10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF1 Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for a Mw 7.8 Southern San Andreas Earthquake: ShakeOut Robert W. Graves (URS Corporation)"— Presentation transcript:

1 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF1 Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for a Mw 7.8 Southern San Andreas Earthquake: ShakeOut Robert W. Graves (URS Corporation) Brad Aagaard (US Geological Survey, Menlo Park) Ken Hudnut (US Geological Survey, Pasadena) Support: SCEC (USGS, NSF) USGS High Performance Computing & Communications (USC)

2 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF2 Highly Complex Geologic Structure Large Computational Demands HPCC Linux Cluster @ USC FAULTS VELOCITY STRUCTURE John Shaw, Harvard

3 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF3 Not a prediction - a plausible event Average time between previous events: 150 years First step: define rupture characteristics –Rupture Length –Magnitude –Slip distribution –Slip function –Rupture velocity –Hypocenter ? 1680 1857 1906 Creeping section Scenario Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

4 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF4 Fault / Rupture Characterization Length = 300 km Mw 7.8 2D fault surface (SCEC CFM) Southern hypocenter Coachella Valley San Gergonio Pass Mojave

5 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF5 Deterministic Methodology (f < 1 Hz) Kinematic representation of heterogeneous rupture on a finite-fault  slip amplitude  slip direction (rake)  rupture velocity from scaling relation  generic slip function and rise time Visco-elastic wave propagation using full waveform Green’s functions calculated for 3D velocity structure Site-specific non-linear amplification factors based on Vs30 (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2006)

6 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF6 Semi-Stochastic Methodology (f > 1 Hz) Limited kinematic representation of heterogeneous rupture on a finite-fault (extension of Boore, 1983)  slip amplitude (stress parameter = 50)  frequency dependent radiation pattern  rupture velocity from scaling relation  stochastic phase  empirical rupture duration Simplified Green’s functions for 1D velocity structure  amplitude decays as inverse of ray path  gross impedance effects based on square-root impedance amplifications (Boore and Joyner, 1997) Site-specific non-linear amplification factors based on Vs30 (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2006)

7 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF7 Merge low- & high-frequency motions Use tapered, matching filters

8 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF8 Semi-Stochastic Methodology (f > 1 Hz) S i (w) =source radiation and path scattering (stochastic phase) G ij (w) =simplified wave propagation and radiation pattern

9 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF9 Source Term: Frankel (1995) subfault moment: subfault corner frequency: Boore (1983)...

10 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF10 F(w) extends corner frequency of small event to match the big event Frankel (1995)

11 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF11 Main HF Approximations Stochastic phasing of S(w) accounts for  Fine scale variability of source radiation  Path scattering Assumes w -2 falloff Simplified 1D GF’s  Direct + Moho rays (1/ray_path)  Quarter-wavelength impedance effects Simplified radiation pattern

12 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF12 Original rupture models (dx=0.5 km)

13 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF13 High frequency rupture models (dx=3 km) Fine scale variability is accommodated through stochastic phasing of S(w)

14 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF14 Simulation Parameters Low Frequency –3D FD model using 2.33 x 10 9 grid nodes (450 km x 225 km x 45 km @ h=0.125 km) –24 hours run-time on 520 CPUs of HPCC Linux cluster at USC (260 GB RAM) –3 component time histories saved at 25,500 locations (2 km x 2 km grid) High Frequency –24 hours run-time using single Linux PC –3 component time histories saved at 25,500 locations Post-Processing –24 hours to process and sum HF and LF into Broadband response –Broadband (0 – 10 Hz) 3 component time histories at 25,500 locations

15 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF15 magnitude_7.9_simulation.wmv Click graph to start

16 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF16 Southeast epicenter (southeast epicenter svx.mpeg) Click graph to start

17 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF17 Northwest epicenter (northwest epicenter svx.mpeg) Click graph to start

18 10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF18 Strong shaking over large area of southern California Strong rupture directivity effects (near fault) Significant basin amplification at longer periods (T > 1 sec), strongly coupled with directivity (even > 50 km from fault) Multiple realizations (hypocenters) allow for quantification of average response and variability about mean Median response similar to empirical models at shorter periods (T < 1 sec), larger than empirical models at longer periods Research in progress … –Damage and loss estimates using HAZUS –Landslide/liquefaction hazards –Lifeline (pipelines/highways/railroads) impacts –Structural analysis of tall buildings Broadband ShakeOut Simulation Summary

19 A few more animations

20 Tottori: Simulations (TOTTORI_CAL.MPEG) Click graph to start

21 Tottori: Observed (TOTTORI_OBS.MPEG) Click graph to start

22 Chuetsu: Simulations in Tokyo basin (Chuetsu_simu_Tokyo.mpeg) Click graph to start

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