1. Read to yourself
David Stenbill
Monica Bigoutski
Shana Tirana

2. Random Thoughts 2012 (COMP 066)
Jan-Michael Frahm
Jared Heinly
(Dense models starting from 3 million images on a single PC in a day)

3. Last Class
Binomial distribution: For events with K successes in N trials
Properties of a Binomial distribution:
Fixed number of trials
Only outcomes are success and fail?
Same probability for success in each trial
Independent trials (no influence of previous trials to current trial)

4. Lessons from Reading Assignment
The probability that two events will occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.

5. Example
Linda (p. 22) ordering of probabilities

6. Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail. (Kahneman, “Thinking Fast Thinking Slow”)
Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
There are more than 20 times the number of male farmers in the US than male librarians. So in all likelihood he will be a farmer.
meek and tidy is often resolved

7. Lessons from Reading Assignment
The probability that two events will occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.
“a good story is often less probable than a less satisfying … [explanation]”

8. Lawyers predict the end of the trial
Charges against Bill Clinton by Paula Jones (p )
how could they tell that the lawyers predict the end more accurately if they split up the different outcomes?

9. Lessons from Reading Assignment
The probability that two events will occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.
“a good story is often less probable than a less satisfying … [explanation]”

10. Study for cancer in the US
A study of the incidence of kidney cancer in 3141 counties of the US reveals a remarkable pattern.
The counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer is the lowest are the most rural, sparsely populated and located in traditionally Republican states in the Midwest, the South and the West.
The counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer is the highest tend to be the mostly rural, sparsely populated and located in traditionally Republican states in the Midwest, the South and the West.
easy and tempting to infer low cancer rates due to clean living (rural live style)
easy to infer high cancer due to poverty

11. Lessons from Reading Assignment
The probability that two events will occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.
“a good story is often less probable than a less satisfying … [explanation]”
Missing information
Availability bias

12. Words
More six letter words ending with ing or with n at the 5th position (p. 28 Moldinov)

13. Crime Rates What is the average crime rate of Michigan
Detroit (highest crime rate in the country) is in Michigan
actual crime rate 32.04

14. Identify Minor celebrities in the triangle
Mike Morse
Tori Amos
Monica Bigoutski
Enrique Forrest
Lisa Myer
Tom Clad
Ava Gardner
David Stenbill
Simon Dunn
Tim Kirkman
Shana Tirana
Joe Zimmerman
Rick Dees
Ryan Merl
Mike Morse
Tori Amos
Rick Dees
Tim Kirkman

15. Lessons from Reading Assignment
The probability that two events will occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.
“a good story is often less probable than a less satisfying … [explanation]”
Missing information
Availability bias
recallable prior knowledge influences our estimates

16. In Class Discussion Math describes hard facts and is precise
Randomness can not be predicted
How can we use math to describe random events?
not simply say statistics work
does a statistic become deterministic if you model precisely and accurately?