1. Concentrating Solar Power APS Forum March 1-2, 2008 Mark Mehos National Renewable Energy Laboratory www.nrel.gov/csp

2. Discussion DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

3. CSP Technologies and Market Sectors CSP w/ Storage (Dispatchable) –Parabolic Trough –Central Receiver –Linear Fresnel CSP w/o Storage (Non- Dispatchable) –Dish/Engine –Concentrating PV CSP w/ Storage (Dispatchable) CSP w/o Storage (Non- Dispatchable)

4. Concentrating Solar Power: Dispatchable Power Up to 250MW plants (or multiple plants in power parks) for peaking and bulk power Moderate solar-to-electric efficiency Thermal storage offers load following and capacity factors up to 70% Central Receiver: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments Parabolic Troughs: Commercial, utility-scale deployments

5. Value of Dispatchable Power? Meeting Utility Power Demands Generation w/ Thermal Storage Storage provides –higher value because power production can match utility needs –lower costs because storage is cheaper than incremental turbine costs Solar Resource Hourly Load

6. Operating Central Station Systems The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII) – Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity – Commissioned 1986-1988 – Performance has increased with time Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity

7. Parabolic Trough Power Plant with Thermal Storage 2-Tank Molten-Salt Thermal Storage HX Hot Tank Cold Tank

8. Concentrating Solar Power: Non-Dispatchable Central Station/Distributed Power Modular (3-25kW) High solar-to-electric efficiency Dish/Stirling: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments Concentrating PV: Pre-commercial, pilot-scale deployments

9. 6-Dish Prototypes - Sandia

10. Discussion DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

11. U.S. Analysis Focused on the Southwest Region NV CA AZ NM UT CO TX

12. U.S. Southwest GIS Screening Analysis for CSP Generation Initial GIS screening analysis used to identify regions most economically favorable to construction of large-scale CSP systems. GIS analysis used in conjunction with transmission and market analysis to identify favorable regions in the southwest Screening Approach

13. Solar Resource Screening Analysis All Solar Resources Locations Suitable for Development Start with direct normal solar resource estimates derived from 10 km satellite data. Eliminate locations with less than 6.0 kWh/m 2 /day. Exclude environmentally sensitive lands, major urban areas, and water features. Remove land areas with greater than 1% (and 3%) average land slope. Eliminate areas with a minimum contiguous area of less than 1 square kilometers. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

14. Southwest Solar Resources - Unfiltered Data

15. Southwest Solar Resources – Transmission Overlay

16. Southwest Solar Resources > 6.0 kWh/m 2 /day

17. Southwest Solar Resources with Environmental and Land Use Exclusions

18. Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope < 3%

19. Southwest Solar Resources Previous plus slope < 1%

20. Resulting CSP Resource Potential The table and map represent land that has no primary use today, exclude land with slope > 1%, and do not count sensitive lands. Solar Energy Resource  6.0 Capacity assumes 5 acres/MW Generation assumes 27% annual capacity factor Current total nameplate capacity in the U.S. is 1,000GW w/ resulting annual generation of 4,000,000 GWh

21. Optimal CSP Sites from CSP Capacity Supply Curves

22. Discussion DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

23. 1-MW Arizona Trough Plant – near Tucson, AZ

24. 64 MWe Solargenix Parabolic Trough Plant

25. 50MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr Storage Andalucia, Spain

26. Solucar 50 MW Trough Project Sevilla, Spain First of 5 x 50MW parabolic trough plants under construction by Solucar

27. Solucar PS10 Power Tower Sevilla, Spain

28. Solucar PS20 Under Construction Sevilla, Spain

29. BrightSource Distributed Power Tower

30. Ausra Linear Fresnel

31. CSP Projects – early 2008 Utility/StateCapacity (MW) Technology -Status Arizona Public Service (APS) 1Trough – completed and in operation 2006 (Acciona) Nevada Power64Trough – completed and in operation June 2007 (Acciona) Southern Cal Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric 500/300Dish – signed power purchase agreement (SES) Pacific Gas & Electric 550Trough – signed power purchase agreement for four plants (Solel) Pacific Gas & Electric 170CLFR – signed power purchase agreement (Ausra) Pacific Gas & Electric 500Tower – MOU signed (Bright Source) Florida Power and Light 300CLFR or Trough Arizona Public Service 280Trough – signed power purchase agreement (Abengoa) SW Utility joint venture (APS) Est. 250TBD – multiple expressions of interest submitted New Mexico Utility Joint Venture 50-500TBD – initial stages U.S. projects: enabled by 30% investment tax credit and State renewable portfolio standards StateRPS Requirement Arizona15% by 2025 California20% by 2010 Colorado20% by 2020 Nevada20% by 2015, 5% Solar New Mexico 20% by 2015 Texas5,880MW (~4.2%) by 2015

32. CSP Projects – International Country/CompanyCapacity (MW)Technology -Status Spain: Solar Millenium4 x 50MW with storage Trough – Andosol 1 &2 under construction. Spain: Abengoa/Solucar5 x 50MWTrough – 1 st plant under construction Spain: Abengoa/Solucar11MW &20MWPower Tower (saturated steam) – PS10 operational. PS20 under construction Spain: SENER17MWPower Tower (molten salt) – contract terms under discussion Spain: variousTBDProjects under various stages of development due to tariff for 500MWs of CSP capacity. Cap likely to be raised to 1000MWs. Algeria: Abener150MWIntegrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS) – 25MW Solar Capacity Egypt: TBD140MWISCCS – 25MW Solar Capacity, negotiations in progress Mexico: TBDTBDISCCS – RFP issued Morocco: TBD230MWISCCS – 35 MW Solar Capacity Israel: Solel2 x 125MWTrough – Northern Negev. Waiting approval from Interior Ministry Australia: SHP15MW,thLinear Fresnel – under construction for integration into feed water heaters in existing coal plant Greece: TBDTBDTariff for CSP recently enacted. Similar in design to Spanish feed-in tariff

33. Discussion DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology Overview Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S. U.S. and International Project Development Current Projects Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

34. Use California Energy Commission Market Price Referent (MPR) as proxy for value –Methodology based on capacity and energy costs associated with “conventional” baseload combined cycle generation plant and utility time of delivery (TOD) values. Why focus on California MPR? –California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) currently calls for 20% of state’s generation to come from renewables by 2010 2007 Baseload MPR for plant built in 2011 = $0.10 per kilowatt hour Cost Targets for CSP in U.S.

35. Allowable Price for CSP Based on Utility Time of Delivery Factors Assuming dispatchable parabolic trough systems with thermal storage and using time of delivery (TOD) values for three california utilities (SDG&E, PG&E, and SCE)  $.12 - $.14/kwh for initial penetration in intermediate load markets (California)

36. Bridging the Cost Gap Source: WGA Solar Task Force Summary Report Current Technology Cost $.16/kwh (nominal) $.11/kwh (real) Cost Reductions to Bridge the Gap Deployment Plant Size Financing R&D Analysis does not include current 30% investment tax credit 2015 Goal $.10/kwh (nominal) $.07/kwh (real)

37. Southwest Market Analysis Regional Electricity Deployment System A multi-regional, multi-time- period model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the U.S. focused on renewables. Designed to estimate market potential of and wind and solar energy in the U.S. for the next 20-50 years under different technology development and policy scenarios

38. General Characteristics of ReEDS Program minimizes costs for each of 26 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050 Existing and new transmission lines Wind and solar (CSP) currently represented Conventional power technologies include hydro, gas CT, gas CC, coal, nuclear, gas/oil steam Non-conventional power technologies include IGCC, coal and CC w/ sequestration

39. Cumulative CSP Capacity No Extension of Solar ITC

40. Cumulative CSP Capacity 8-year extension with declining ITC

41. CSP Capacity in 2020 with no ITC extension

42. CSP Capacity in 2020 with ITC extension

43. CSP Capacity in 2050 with ITC extension

44. CSP Capacity DESTINATION in 2050

45. Dedicated DC Transmission CSP Capacity Destination in 2050 ( 160 GWs Total) after allowing free transmission from AZ & CA to NY&MD

46. Summary CSP technologies, especially those that incorporate near-term thermal storage, offer a combination of low-cost and high value to utility-scale markets. The solar resource in the Southwest is immense resulting in generation potential of CSP greater than six times current U.S. demand. Capacity supply curves based on the screening analysis demonstrate that suitable lands are located close to existing transmission, minimizing costs required to access high-value solar resources. Near-term U.S. market penetration is a challenge but large based on continuation of current investment tax credit and southwest state policies attractive to large-scale solar. Preliminary market penetration analysis indicates up to 30 GW of U.S. CSP capacity could be achieved by 2030 (120 GW by 2050)

47. Thank You! Mark Mehos National Renewable Energy Laboratory mark_mehos@nrel.gov (303) 384-7458 www.nrel.gov/csp