1. International Conference and Young Scientists School on Computational Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences: “CITES-2005” Novosibirsk, Russia, March 13-23, 2005 Atmosphere-Sea Hydrodynamic-Ecosystem model study in the sea Rein Tamsalu (University of Tartu)

2. Introduction Today the environmental science are very much coupled with everyday life. Management policies need answer to concrete questions concerning the response of nature to both natural and manmade changes in enviromental forcing factors and loding. Numerical Hydro-Ecological modelling is an important tool for a better undrstanding of relations between the processes, and for forecasting these responses.

3. Atm.-Sea-Hydro-ecological forecasting modelling The goal of our activities is to answer to concrete questions concerning the response of nature to both natural and man-made changes in marine environment. *

4. Concrete Questions The influence of the Port of Tallinn reconstruction to the Muuga Bay marine environment

5. The influence of the Port of Tallinn reconstruction to the Muuga Bay marine environment Baltic Sea  =3’  =6’Gulf of Finland  =1’  =2’ Talsingi  =0.25’  =0.5’ Gulf of Muuga  =0.05’  =0.1’

6. Atm.-Hydro-Ecological forecasting modelling In the Atmosphere-Sea-Hydro-Ecological modelling system are coupled several sub-models: *

7. Atm.-Sea-Hydro-Ecological Models System

8. Meso-Scale Atmosph. Model TU-EMHI model ETA model is based on the reference HIRLAM model, ETB is the non-hydrostatic version. A pre-operational version of nonhydrostatic HIRLAM is used at the Estonian Meteorological Hydrological Institute (EMHI) to test the non-hydrostatic kernel of the model. Two modelling domains, as illustrated in Figure 1, are in use. Grid size of the larger domain ETA is 11km and the smaller domain ETB 3km. As the limited area models require boundary fields from larger models, the ETA model is nested to the FMI operational HIRLAM and ETB to the ETA.

9. Meso- Scale Atmospheric Model

10. Marine Circulation Models There are many different models barotropic baroclinic hydrostatic nonhydrostatic.......................

11. Measured Temperaure Vertical Stucture in the Muuga Bay

12. Velocity Measurements In Muuga Bay Recording Doppler Current Profiler RDCP 600 ( Aandera Instruments AS, Bergen, Norway.)

13. Marine Circulation Model It is clear that we need Baroclinic Nonhydrostatic Circulation Model

14. Marine Circulation Model The governing equations of the circulation model are: Momentum equation for velocity vector U (u,v,w) Continuity equation for incompressible fluid Transport-diffusion equations for: Salinity S Temperature T State equation for buoyancy b=f(T,S) Two-equation turbulent model for Kinetic energy k and generic length scale quantity  or  sea level fluctuation , hydrostatic pressure p* and nonhydrostatic pressure p’ Pressure components are calculated

15. Wind wave calculation Surface wind waves are an integrated effect, in space and time, of driving wind fields. The wind wave model computes the two-dimensional wave action spectra through integration of the transport equation, where the right hand side consists of several terms describing different evolution mechanisms, such as energy input from wind ; the non-linear transfer of energy through the spectrum ; different kinds of dissipation mechanisms. Interactive atmospheric input term is used in the Miles’ form. In this model the so-called narrow-directional approximation is used. This approximation is based on well-known fact that wind waves have a narrow angular spreading function of spectra. The latter circumstance plays a key role in parameterization of nonlinear term. *

16. Size-Dependent Pankton Community Model Size- dependent plankton community food web is formed by  autotrophs (A i ) i=1,2,…,N P  heterotrophs (H i ) i=1,2,…,N P  bacterioplankton (B ) This plankton community forms the N P triplet stucture. Size- dependent plankton community food web is formed by  autotrophs (A i ) i=1,2,…,N P  heterotrophs (H i ) i=1,2,…,N P  bacterioplankton (B ) This plankton community forms the N P triplet stucture. Zooflag. Microzoopl. DIP DIN DIC DIP+DOP DIN+DON DOC Picophyto. Bacteriopl. ESD (  m) 0.2 - 2 I Phytoflag. Nanozoopl. II 2 - 10 Nanophyto. III 10 - 50 Netphyto. Mesozoopl. IV 50 - 250 250 – 1250

17. Growth reactions There are two energy flows to the plankton community The first one is the uptake of dissolved inorganic nutrients by autotrophy and it is directed from the autotrophy toward heterotrophy trough grazing. The other is the uptake of dissolved organic and inorganic nutrients by bacterioplankton and it is directed from bacterioplankton towards heterotrophy trough predation. |

18. Loss reactions Energy is lost through autotrophy exudation, mortality and respiration heterotrophy excretion, mortality and respiration bacterioplankton excretion and respiration detritus decay |

19. Different grid resolutions Baltic SeaGulf of Finland Talsinki area Muuga Bay open boundary I - 3.0 * 3.0 nm II - 1.0 * 1.0 nm III- ¼ * ¼ nm IV- 1/20 * 1/20 nm

20. Horizontal velocity on the surface layer Muuga Bay

21. HORIZONTAL VELOCITY IN THE BOTTOM LAYER Muuga Bay

22. Velocity on the cross-section Muuga Bay

23. Wind Waves In TALSINKI area during SW Storm

24. Ecological compounds calculation Autotrophs in the beginning of May Heterotrophs in the beginning of May

25. Suspended Material Calculation Spawning place Reconstruction area

26. Oil Spill calculation Stranding of oil and shoreline interaction The following oil spill processes are modeled: Transport and deformation of an oil slick due to time and spatially varying winds and currents Diffusion and dispersion of oil on the sea surface and in the water column Evaporation of a multi-component mixture of oil Sinking of oil in water, and consequent sedimentation Formation of oil-in-water emulsion Weathering of oil, resulting in changes in density, viscosity, and water content, due to evaporation and emulsification processes Oil spreading at the sea surface due to positive buoyancy

27. Oil Spill calculation The probability of the oil accident consequence in the NW part of the island Saaremaa in the summer time during three months.

28. The influence of the Wind Waves to the Baroclinic Circulation

29. Surface Temperature after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Wind Waves are included

30. Bottom Temperature after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Tmax=10Tmin=6.5 Wind Waves are included Tmax=10Tmin=6.5

31. Temperature profile after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Tmax=10 Tmin=6.5 Wind Waves are included Tmax=10 Tmin=6.5

32. Eddy Viscosity profile after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Wind Waves are included Kmax=100cm2/s. Kmin=0.1 cm2/s.

33. Surface velocity after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Wind Waves are included

34. Bottom Velocity after 30 days calculation No Wind Waves Wind Waves are included