1. Rural deprivation in Worcestershire Worcestershire Partnership Board 21 st July 2010 Tom Smith Oxford Consultants for Social Inclusion (OCSI) 01273 201 345, www.ocsi.co.uk, tom.smith@ocsi.co.uk

2. Rapidly changing policy … Localism & the Big Society – greater local ownership Central role –> fund & regulate Fewer top-down government priorities –Removal of targets and inspection –Fewer central pilots and initiatives? More freedom, less cash

3. A partnership project Project driven by partnership working at local level, a wish for LSPs to understand the needs locally Joint funding from NHS Worcestershire, Malvern Hills DC, and Wychavon DC Coordinated by Community First

4. Background 1 Project to understand volume and pattern of rural deprivation in Worcestershire Information to help ensure equity of quality public services across the county People and places – deprived areas and deprived people What is ‘rural’? Countryside Agency/ ONS definition –Based on ‘Settlement size’ and ‘Sparsity ‘ –Urban; Rural (Town & fringe, Villages, Hamlets & Isolated)

5. Background 2 Not looked at whether ‘rural’ deprivation is different from ‘urban’ deprivation – we are using datasets that apply in both rural and urban areas Datasets were used based on: –Relevance: direct measures of deprivation, plus key indicators –Available on a consistent basis across Worcestershire –Available at sub Local Authority level –Can be communicated easily to a wide audience –(some overlap with the Rural Disadvantage Indicators work) Should not be seen as downplaying urban deprivation levels, but providing additional rural evidence

6. What is the volume and pattern of rural deprivation in Worcestershire? Pockets of deprivation – modelling the Index of Multiple Deprivation to smaller areas Rural share of deprivation

7. Modelling the Index of Multiple Deprivation to smaller areas Range of key deprivation data available for Super Output Areas, eg –IMD 2007 and domains –Worklessness, low income and health benefits data But SOA data can still hide pockets of deprivation –A general problem with area-based data (not just the IMD) IMD model at Output Area level –Statistically modelled datasets down to Output Area level –Linear regression SOA model; same model applied at OA level –Validated using range of real data at OA level

8. County hotspots at SOA level 30 SOAs in most deprived 20% across England All are urban Each Super Output Area (SOA) covers 1,500 people 361 SOAs in Worcs, 32,500 in England

9. County hotspots at detailed OA level 154 OAs in most deprived 20% 4 are rural [+ 17 rural areas in most deprived 30%] Each Output Area (OA) covers 300 people 1,825 OAs in Worcs, 165,000 in England

10. The most deprived SOAs in Worcestershire are overwhelmingly urban Analysis at Output Area level uncovers some pockets of deprivation in rural areas (but deprivation still mainly urban) Key message

11. The most deprived rural areas look much like deprived urban areas: –High levels of unemployment –High levels of lone parents –Relatively high levels of children –Very high levels of social housing –High levels of limiting long-term illness –Very high levels of adults with no qualifications (But also high % of temporary homes) Key message

12. What is the volume and pattern of rural deprivation in Worcestershire ? Pockets of deprivation – modelling the Index of Multiple Deprivation to smaller areas Rural share of deprivation

13. At SOA level, there are 30 areas among the most 20% deprived areas in England – none are rural Rural areas are less likely to be deprived than urban areas But … levels of social exclusion in rural areas under- estimate level of exclusion for people People and places – deprivation levels

14. Finer grain detail At more detailed OA level, 4 rural areas are identified in the 20% most deprived areas across England People and places – deprivation levels

15. Finer grain detail At individual level, 20% of all people of working-age receiving DWP benefits in Worcestershire live in rural areas People and places – deprivation levels

16. Rural share of deprivation in Worcestershire None of the highly deprived SOAs in Worcs are rural But … –28% of people receiving the Pension Credit Guarantee Element live in rural areas –23% of people with limiting long-term illness are in rural areas, 32% of Attendance Allowance claimants –23% of adults (aged 25-54) with no qualifications live in rural areas –20% of all working age people claiming DWP benefits live in rural –20% of all workless benefit claimants (Jobseeker’s Allowance and Incapacity Benefit) live in rural areas –16% of children living in income deprivation (and 15% in workless households) –(reference – 30% of all people in the county live in rural areas)

17. Rural share of deprivation in the Districts

18. Rural Worcestershire is substantially more deprived based on the location of deprived people than based on the location of deprived areas Key message

19. Going forward: questions for the partnership 1.How could partners use this information in their own organisations? (balance of priorities between areas and individuals) 2.How do we ensure equity of quality public services in urban and rural Worcestershire? (Is there a county wide piece of work that should be done to take this forward, and who would like to do it?)

20. Thank you Tom Smith Oxford Consultants for Social Inclusion (OCSI) e: Tom.Smith@ocsi.co.uk t: 01273 201 345 w: www.ocsi.co.uk